After the Braves’ fifth consecutive win on Saturday night and losses by the Mets and Diamondbacks, all three teams remain alive for the final two National League wild card berths with none having clinched.
There are eight possible permutations of outcomes among the three teams from their games on Sunday. Of the eight, two of them would eliminate Arizona by the end of play Sunday and potentially relieve the Braves and Mets of having to play the two makeup games on Monday at Truist Park. Those, by far, are the most favorable scenarios for the Braves.
“It would be awesome if we could do that,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said Saturday before his team’s 2-1 walk-off win over the Royals.
Six of the eight (in which either the Braves win, the Diamondbacks lose or both) would clinch a seventh consecutive postseason berth for the Braves.
Here, after more thought than was probably necessary, are how those eight possible outcomes rank in terms of favorability for the Braves:
1) Braves win, Mets win, Diamondbacks lose.
The Braves and Mets clinch spots in the postseason and potentially may be excused from playing on Monday. (It is a possibility, possibly even a strong one, that if only seeding is at stake in the scheduled makeup games, that MLB will not require the games to be played.) The Braves would earn the No. 5 seed and go into the playoffs on a six-game winning streak.
2) Braves lose, Mets win, Diamondbacks lose
The Braves and Mets clinch spots in the wild-card round and, again, could be relieved from playing on Monday. If that proves the case, the Braves would earn the No. 5 seed by virtue of winning the season series over the Mets and start the playoffs with five wins in their final six regular-season games.
3) Braves win, Mets lose, Diamondbacks win.
The Braves clinch a wild-card berth but, with the final spot undetermined, would have to play the Mets on Monday at Truist Park. In this case, the Mets would need to win both ends of the doubleheader to catch the Diamondbacks and win the tiebreaker to get in.
With their playoff spot secured, the Braves could use bullpen arms that they don’t expect to count on in the wild-card round, such as Jesse Chavez or Luke Jackson. If the Braves won the first game, then the second game is not expected to be played. The Braves would earn the No. 5 seed if they won either game but the No. 6 seed if the Mets swept to get in.
4) Braves win, Mets lose, Diamondbacks lose
In this scenario, the Braves would clinch with a sixth consecutive win but would have to play on Monday with the Mets needing to win one game of the two to win. In this case, even if the Braves won the first game, they would still have to play the second game in order to give the Mets their last chance to catch the Diamondbacks.
If the Braves won the first or second games to eliminate the Mets, they would earn the No. 5 seed by having a better record than the Diamondbacks. If they lost both games, the Mets would gain the No. 5 seed by winning the first tiebreaker, head-to-head competition. The Braves would be No. 6.
5) Braves win, Mets win, Diamondbacks win
This scenario is practically identical to the previous one – the Braves clinch on Sunday and the Mets need to win one game out of two on Monday to catch the Diamondbacks and advance into the postseason.
However, if the Mets won the first game, it would create a most unusual scenario. The Braves and Mets would be tied at 89-72 and their season series – the first tiebreaker – would be 6-6. Unless MLB required the Braves and Mets to play the second game solely for seeding purposes, which is not expected to happen, the Mets would win the No. 5 seed on the second tiebreaker (divisional record) and the Braves would get the No. 6 seed.
6) Braves lose, Mets lose, Diamondbacks lose
It’s essentially the same scenario as the previous two, with the Braves clinching their spot but having to play possibly both ends of the doubleheader as the Mets would need one win to catch the Diamondbacks. This scenario is marginally worse, though, as it would mean that the Braves lost on Sunday and ended their five-game winning streak.
In this case, too, if the Braves lost the first game of the doubleheader, they would be in position to lose the No. 5 seed to the Mets if MLB decides that the second game does not need to be played.
Which seed is favorable is up for debate. Milwaukee has the No. 3 seed and San Diego the No. 4 seed. (The Braves lost the season series to both teams.) Also, the 3-6 winner faces the Phillies and the 4-5 winner faces the Dodgers.
7) Braves lose, Mets win, Diamondbacks win
In this scenario, no one clinches on Sunday and the Braves and Mets would play a doubleheader with both teams needing one win to earn a playoff spot. What makes this scenario preferable to the last possibility is what would happen in the second game no matter which team won the first.
If the Mets were to win the first game, they would presumably back off in the second game and give the Braves a better chance of winning.
Similarly, if the Braves were to win the first game and clinch their spot, they could at least play the second game without needing to win. That would give them the opportunity to save either Chris Sale or Spencer Schwellenbach (whichever didn’t pitch in the first game) for the wild-card round.
So long as the Braves won one of the two games to advance, they would earn the No. 5 seed. If the Braves lost both, they would be eliminated.
8) Braves lose, Mets lose, Diamondbacks win
Here it is, the least favorable outcome of the eight. In this situation, the Diamondbacks would clinch on Sunday. On Monday, the Braves would need to win one game to clinch, but the Mets would need to win both.
As a result, if the Braves lost the first game of the doubleheader, they and the Mets would both be in a do-or-die situation in the second game. So, if the Braves pitched Schwellenbach in the first game, they would use Sale in the second (or vice versa).
It’s the scenario that not only has the highest potential for damaging the Braves’ chances for success in the wild card round but also, of the two permutations that could leave the Braves out, would appear to be the one with the greater likelihood of that happening.
If the Braves won either game, they would be the No. 5 seed and Arizona would be No. 6.
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