Ahead of opening day, an MLB scout breaks down the Braves’ roster

The 24-year-old righthanded starting pitcher returns for his second year after a phenomenal rookie showing (3.35 ERA in 123⅔ innings, 1.043 WHIP). He used the words “dominant” and “untouchable” to describe his performance last season.

“Obviously, sophomore year, teams start to adjust to you,” the scout said. “He didn’t pitch a full season in the big leagues, so maybe some teams didn’t see him, but that guy’s got weapons at his disposal. He’s athletic. His delivery’s good. Nothing he will do this year will surprise me.”

The scout went so far as to put Schwellenbach ahead of Reynaldo López, who a year ago put down a 1.99 ERA in 135⅔ innings in his first season as a full-time starter since 2020.

That pitching rotation, headed by reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale and strikeout maven Spencer Strider, formed the basis of why the scout called the NL East the Braves’ to lose.

“The Phillies are good, the Mets are good,” he said. “But you’re going to run those four guys out there — whew. I mean, I don’t even know how to attack that. And then Grant Holmes is no slouch, either.”

Another player to watch out for, per the scout — rookie catcher Drake Baldwin, who will be the opening-day starter with Sean Murphy mending from a cracked rib suffered in spring training.

“If you’re asking me about a gut feeling, I think Drake Baldwin’s going to be as advertised,” he said. “I think he’s going to do all right. I don’t know how they’re going to handle (the division of playing time with Murphy), obviously. I think he’s going to play well enough that they’re not going to want to send him down.”

Beyond that, the scout could envision Baldwin playing well enough to be in a platoon with Murphy, who suffered an oblique injury on opening day last year, didn’t return until late May and ended up hitting a career-low .193 in 72 games. And if that were the case, with Baldwin batting left-handed and Murphy a righty, that would mean Baldwin would get most of the at-bats.

“I think they’re going to be really happy with what he does in the big leagues,” he said.

It was not all bouquets.

“I’m not enthralled with (right fielder Jarred) Kelenic,” he said of the player who hit .231 last season in his first season with the Braves. “He just hasn’t done it yet.”

He thought the lineup could use another left-handed power hitter. He called shortstop Orlando Arcia, who hit .218 last season a year after hitting .264 and making the All-Star game, a question mark.

“He just plays solid defense,” the scout said. “With the lineup that they have, if they’re clicking on all cylinders, you don’t need him to be an offensive force. You need him to catch the ball. I think that could be a concern if they’re not getting production from where they need to get production.”

Without reliever Joe Jiménez, who is recovering from knee surgery and will be out at least into July and possibly longer, he called the bullpen a concern, though not a weakness.

“I do think they don’t have the true volume of lockdown arms that they would like to have and that they’ve had in the past,” the scout said. “I don’t want to say it’s a simple fix, but a lot of times at the (trade) deadline, you can grab a reliever that really changes the complexion.”

He had questions about offseason acquisition Jurickson Profar, who signed as a free agent to a three-year, $42 million contract after a career year in which he hit .280 with 24 home runs. He said that, while a “glue guy,” the left fielder’s defense is below average. Also, the scout was uncertain Profar can reach 20 home runs again.

“He’s on the wrong side of 30,” he said of the 32-year-old Profar. “I would think you’re going to get somewhere between his Rockies year (in 2023, he hit .242 with nine home runs in 125 games, mostly with Colorado) and his year last year.”

He was not concerned about first baseman Matt Olson, who dipped from his historic 2023 (54 home runs, 139 RBIs, .604 slugging percentage) to a more moderate 2024 (29, 98, .457).

“He’s going to hit a lot of home runs, the average is going to be, you hope, in the .240’s,” he said.

Another insight, this about new hitting coach Tim Hyers, who was brought in to replace Kevin Seitzer, dismissed after 10 seasons:

“I think that’s a really good addition because he’s a very calming influence and he knows hitting,” the scout said. “I think that’s very important to have that in the fold.”

Overall, he called the Braves a top-six roster in the majors.

“The rotation is pretty solid, their offense is pretty solid, the bullpen could be a little bit of a concern, but it’s a complete roster,” the scout said.

It’s hard to quibble with just about anything the scout offered. As long as the Braves stay healthy, they should be a really good team.

The 162-game quest begins Thursday in San Diego.

Watch out for Schwellenbach.