The College Football Playoff won’t decide its winner until the evening of Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. But it’s not too soon to declare chaos as the real national champion for 2024.
The malevolent undercurrent claimed more victims Saturday, undercutting three of the Southeastern Conference’s CFP aspirants. No. 7 Alabama, No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 15 Texas A&M lost on the road to three teams with a combined record of 14-16. Out West, No. 14 BYU, undefeated and ranked sixth two weeks ago, lost its second consecutive game, to No. 21 Arizona State.
Chaos pats its cousin March Madness on the head and tells it to run along. Its appetite insatiable and its range expansive, chaos reduces dreams into dust with the cold efficiency of a coffee grinder.
Finding meaning in chaos’ handiwork might be a foolhardy task, but there is at least one clear repercussion from the trio of SEC faceplants.
For better or worse, Georgia is back in the business of playing for the SEC championship, an opportunity that seemed unlikely before Saturday. But with Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M teaming up for a chaos hat trick, the No. 10 Bulldogs gained a spot in the SEC title game, Dec. 7 at MBS. They’ll play the winner of the Aggies’ rivalry game with No. 3 Texas, Saturday in College Station, Texas.
It’s better because an SEC title guarantees the Bulldogs a spot in the CFP and potentially a first-round bye. It’s worse because a loss would be the Bulldogs’ third (or possibly fourth) and could eliminate them from CFP candidacy.
Avoiding the SEC title game would have provided safe harbor — no chance of a first-round bye, but a less risky path to a spot in the 12-team field.
If chaos can squeeze more disarray into its schedule — it surely has hundreds of Thanksgiving dinner visits lined up first — Texas A&M will topple the Longhorns a day after Georgia Tech humbles the Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium and the SEC title game will have an ungainly first. Never before has college football’s premier conference championship entertained two three-loss teams. Chaos’ ears perk up at “never before.”
But it would be a fitting scenario for what has clearly been a down season for the SEC. Saturday’s results only confirmed it.
Alabama was held to a lone field goal and 234 yards of offense by an Oklahoma team that had lost its four previous conference games. Ole Miss, which had an open date to prepare for the Florida Gators (who did not), collapsed under two costly interceptions thrown by conference player of the year candidate Jaxson Dart.
Texas A&M fell behind 21-0 to an Auburn team that had averaged 16 points in SEC play before Saturday and then fell to the Tigers in four overtimes.
The staunch SEC defender will argue that it’s just proof of how tough the conference is. Really good teams are just taking turns beating each other up. It’s hard to win on the road.
Everyone else might see it differently.
If Auburn is strong enough to take down a potential SEC title-game participant in Texas A&M, then how did it also lose at home to Cal (which is in the ACC but is also 6-5)?
If No. 2 Ohio State’s 23-point win over No. 5 Indiana exposed the previously undefeated Hoosiers, then what should be concluded about Alabama losing by 21 points to a team that before Saturday had yet to clinch bowl eligibility?
Particularly after its thrashing of Georgia, Ole Miss was touted as a potential national champion on the strength of the best defense that a collective could buy. Saturday, that group allowed Florida to rack up touchdown drives of 89, 75 and 67 yards.
The SEC’s superiority has been expressed in previous years in its fistful of national championships, bowl wins and draft selections. And a team from the SEC might yet claim the CFP title. But this season, its teams are far more vulnerable than they’ve been in the past, their talent having been dispersed through the transfer portal by name, image and likeness deals.
The argument that Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama are all elite, playoff-worthy teams has been held up by the fact that they have wins over the other. However, the assertion grows less convincing when considering that Tennessee also lost to Arkansas (6-5), Ole Miss lost to Kentucky (4-7) and Alabama lost to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt (both 6-5).
Georgia (9-2) and Texas (10-1) don’t have those scuffs but do have other blemishes. The Longhorns do not have a single win over a team in the current top 25. Their ESPN-measured strength of schedule is 36th, below — gasp! — six ACC teams.
The Bulldogs do have the strongest strength of schedule in FBS (and gave Texas its only loss) but have often appeared vulnerable against lesser opponents. In their game Saturday against Massachusetts at Sanford Stadium, the Bulldogs led the Minutemen by 10 points (31-21) with nine minutes to play in the third quarter before winning 59-21.
Further, the Minutemen, who are 2-9, rushed for 226 yards. It was their second-highest total of the season, and UMass has played two FCS teams.
The series of SEC calamities only adds to the sense that Georgia is in for a fight Friday against Tech. The Bulldogs are rightfully favored, by a whopping 20.5 points. And the Yellow Jackets are diminished by quarterback Haynes King’s ailing shoulder — he has played in the past two games but his throwing ability has been compromised.
But on what basis should Tech fear the Bulldogs?
In the larger picture, the season to this point speaks to an appetizing possibility for the CFP. Only a few years ago, it seemed a given before each season even started that the champion would most likely be Alabama, Clemson or Georgia. But in this unpredictable season, if the first 13 weeks are a guide, the inaugural 12-team tournament could (hopefully) overflow with upsets.
Chaos is a welcomed guest for Thanksgiving week and beyond. Please pass the stuffing.
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