Sometimes playoff series turn on a titanic home run or a jaw-dropping double play. Sometimes they pivot less noticeably, like with the sprain of an index finger in a late-September game with almost nothing on the line.
With the National League Division Series tied at 1-1 following the late-game pyrotechnics of Travis d’Arnaud, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II, the Braves might have confidently turned to Charlie Morton for Game 3 in Philadelphia on Wednesday night.
An unflappable veteran with 17 postseason starts to his credit, Morton would have been an easy choice for manager Brian Snitker. However, we do not live in a world where Morton didn’t sprain the index finger of his throwing hand in a start at Washington on Sept. 22.
As such, Snitker had not yet arrived at a decision for which pitcher to entrust with the Game 3 start as of noon Tuesday. Speaking with media via videoconference, he said he was leaning in one direction but was going to convene further with his cabinet.
“There’s a lot of things,” Snitker said. “If we want to do an opener, who are we going to follow up with, if we decide to do that. If we want to just go the traditional route. There’s just a lot of different scenarios that we’re looking at.”
The most likely options – a 20-year-old rookie who began the season at Single-A and has some zing in his fastball (A.J. Smith-Shawver), a second-year big-leaguer who made the All-Star team in July but has seen his performance falter since (Bryce Elder) or a reliever starting a relay race out of the bullpen.
One of the three will oppose Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who doesn’t consistently blow anyone’s doors off but did limit the Braves to two runs over 12 innings (with no home runs allowed) in his past two starts against the team that led the majors in runs, home runs, RBIs, batting average, etc.
And that pitcher will do so in Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, a venue Snitker termed “as nuts a place as I’ve ever been” and Braves reliever A.J. Minter described as “the loudest stadium I’ve ever been in, especially last year in the postseason.”
That the Braves’ historic season will go on the line with sub-optimal options on the mound fits with the season, though. The year will be defined by possibly the best offensive season in the game’s history – still not an easy idea to grasp. But another integral aspect has been the gamut of injuries sustained by the pitching staff. A litany of ailments has compelled Snitker, pitching coach Rick Kranitz and general manager Alex Anthopoulos to send pitchers to the mound as though issued forth from a clown car.
From the heralded Spencer Strider to the briefly rostered Yonny Chirinos, the Braves gave the ball to 16 different starting pitchers this season, a legion that includes Elder and Smith-Shawver. The total tied the franchise record.
That sort of desperation typically is not compatible with success. Beginning with the 2000 season, the Braves were the 17th team to have exactly 16 starting pitchers in a season. Twelve of the 17 had losing records and only two (including the Braves) won their division. Only the 104-win Braves won more than 92 games. It’s a testimony to the Braves’ offensive might overriding such calamity, but also to their pitching depth to survive the long-term absences of Max Fried and Kyle Wright. Among starting pitchers, the Braves covered the 12th most innings in baseball and their ERA (4.36) was 17th in the majors.
Both Elder and Smith-Shawver have their appeal, but both also are stamped with warning labels. Elder was staunch in the first half of the season with a 2.97 ERA and a .237 opponent batting average, but the performance has fallen off since (5.11, .257).
Elder spun a gem at Citizens Bank Park in June (seven scoreless innings with three hits and two walks against six strikeouts). Elder also gave up two home runs and walked five against the Phillies in a home start of 3-2/3 innings Sept. 20.
Smith-Shawver would benefit from the Phillies having not faced him yet. But he’s also a rookie with six major-league appearances to his credit. He graduated from Colleyville Heritage High in Texas two years ago.
Both would be making their postseason debuts.
“You’re going to be nervous; there’s no way getting around it,” Minter said of a first postseason start. “There’s going to be butterflies. That’s what makes you perform better. You feed off the energy in the crowd.”
Opponents hit for a higher average against Elder this season (.245) than Smith-Shawver (.183) but were more than twice as likely to homer off Smith-Shawver (one per 15 plate appearances) than Elder (one per 38.5). Neither has pitched in a live game since late September, although Smith-Shawver was impressive in his last regular-season appearance and then in an intrasquad game last week during the wild-card round.
“He’s been killing it the past month,” Minter said of Smith-Shawver. “Velocity’s up, command’s up. He’s going to be a horse on the mound.”
Perhaps an opener might be the way through for the Braves, a path they took successfully in Game 4 of the 2021 World Series with Dylan Lee.
All of this because of a sprained finger.
It’s hard to fault anybody here, unless maybe Morton prepped for that ill-fated start by trying to catch medicine balls dropped from a third-story window. It’s part of the unpredictable drama that is postseason baseball, where the impact of every pitch, swing, finger sprain and managerial decision is magnified.
Playing with a weak hand, Snitker’s move could pay off majestically, enabling the Braves to go for the clincher Thursday night with Strider on the mound for Game 4. Or, if it doesn’t, the Braves will be down two games to one and tasked with trying to keep a historical season alive with a nuts crowd in their ears.
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