ATHENS — The Georgia Bulldogs have been regular participants in the SEC Championship game, making it in six of Kirby Smart’s previous eight season as head coach.
In Smart’s first season (2016), Georgia finished fourth in the SEC East, and in 2020 a loss to Florida knocked the Bulldogs out of an SEC title game berth.
This season, No. 8 Georgia (8-2) completed SEC play with a 6-2 record and finish the regular season with two nonconference games — a home game against UMass on Saturday at 12:45 p.m. and vs. Georgia Tech at 7:30 p.m. Nov. 29 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Smart was asked at Monday’s news conference if he was keeping his eye on the rest of the SEC and what would need to happen for Georgia to make it back to the SEC Championship game.
“The focus is on UMass. I mean, it really is,” Smart said. “So why would I put energy or time into trying to figure out what the best pathway is, including the SEC Championship (game), when I’m worried about UMass? I just don’t think it’s a quality conversation.”
Georgia does not control its own path in terms of returning to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the SEC title game. If the projected favorites win out, Texas would face Alabama in the SEC Championship game.
However, plenty of teams are still alive, as six schools could finish with 6-2 SEC records — Texas (5-1 SEC), Texas A&M (5-1), Georgia (6-2), Tennessee (5-2), Alabama (4-2) and Ole Miss (4-2).
Below are some of the possibilities that could put Georgia playing again in Atlanta, where a win would lock up a College Football Playoff berth and a first-round bye.
The winner of the SEC Championship game will advance directly to the playoff quarterfinals, where they would play in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day in New Orleans. A loss for Georgia in the SEC title game, though, muddies the outlook given that it’s uncertain how the College Football Playoff committee will view conference championship game defeats.
Alabama loses to Oklahoma or Auburn; Ole Miss and Tennessee win out
In this scenario, Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee all have two conference losses, like Georgia. Based on conference opponents’ winning percentage, Alabama is likely to come out on top in any tiebreaking scenario.
The Crimson Tide did not play Mississippi State and Kentucky, which are currently a combined 1-12 in the SEC. So while Georgia played most of the top teams in the league, the lack of games against the middle class of SEC teams hurts the Bulldogs in any multiteam tiebreaker involving Alabama. UGA, of course, also lost head-to-head to Alabama.
So the cleanest way for Georgia to get to Atlanta would be Alabama losing at Oklahoma this week and at home versus Auburn the following week to give the Crimson Tide three SEC losses. The Crimson Tide will be favored vs. both the Sooners and Tigers, but Alabama was also favored heading in to losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee.
It is worth noting that in any multiteam tiebreakers involving Ole Miss, Tennessee and either Texas or Texas A&M — the other SEC teams that could finish with two conference losses — Georgia would hold an edge thanks to the combined winning percentage of its conference opponents.
In the event that Alabama picks up a third SEC loss, Georgia would play the winner of the Nov. 30 Texas-Texas A&M game.
Texas and Texas A&M both finish with 2 conference losses
Should Texas and Texas A&M both win this weekend, it sets up a monster of a game in College Station, Texas. The winner of that game would go on to Atlanta, while the loser would wait to learn its College Football Playoff fate.
There is no scenario in which Texas and Texas A&M can play each other in both the regular-season finale and SEC title game. But what if one of those teams were to get tripped up this weekend and then play spoiler the next?
Say Auburn beats Texas A&M and the Aggies turn around and beat Texas at home. That would knock both teams out of Atlanta. The same would be true if Texas were to improbably lose at home to Kentucky and then beat Texas A&M on the road the following week.
If Texas and Texas A&M both finish with two SEC losses — and Alabama, Tennessee and Ole Miss win out — it would set up a scenario for Georgia and Alabama to meet in the SEC Championship game.
Even if Ole Miss and/or Tennessee pick up additional losses, Georgia-Alabama would be the SEC Championship game matchup.
How we get a first-time SEC Championship game opponent for Georgia
And what if all the home teams win in the last two weeks of SEC play?
While incredibly unlikely, Smart has said time and time again that winning on the road in the SEC is incredibly difficult.
All of the teams that can finish with two conference losses all have to go on the road at least one more time this season. That would mean, in this improbable scenario, that Georgia, Texas A&M and Texas all finish with two SEC losses and Alabama, Tennessee and Ole Miss end with three SEC losses.
In that scenario, Georgia and Texas A&M would play in the SEC Championship game, thanks to the Aggies’ home win over Texas.
Of the teams that can finish with two conference losses, Texas A&M is the only team that Georgia has not played this season. Georgia and Texas A&M have met only once since the Aggies joined the SEC, with the Bulldogs winning 19-13 in Athens in 2019.
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
Credit: Jason Getz / Jason.Getz@ajc.com
Credit: AP
Credit: AP
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