ATHENS — How does an eight-way tie for first place in the SEC sound?
If you’re the Georgia Bulldogs, right now that sounds pretty good. Actually, it is not that unrealistic of a scenario. Let’s break it down.
For the No. 11 Bulldogs (7-2, 5-2 SEC), the hardest part comes this Saturday. They’ll have to beat No. 6-ranked Tennessee (8-1, 5-1) at Sanford Stadium for any of the rest of it to matter. The betting houses in Las Vegas, at least, believe that to be quite possible. Georgia has been installed as an early 8.5-point favorite.
That’s one.
The Vols (7-1, 5-1) certainly wouldn’t be happy about losing to the Bulldogs for an eighth consecutive season. But then, by just beating Vanderbilt in Nashville on Nov. 30, Tennessee could be in the SEC Championship mix for the first time since 2007.
There’s two.
The rest of it is more complicated. It starts by needing Arkansas (5-4, 3-3) to knock off No. 5 Texas (8-1, 4-1) in Fayetteville this Saturday. Sure, that would require a huge upset. Then again, now let’s see a show of hands from those who saw Vanderbilt’s upset of Alabama coming. It wouldn’t be the craziest thing to imagine.
The Longhorns would of course need to beat Kentucky (3-6, 1-6) in Austin the week before lassoing the Aggies in College Station in Week 14. No stretch there.
So, that’s three.
The rest of this scenario falls together nicely.
The Aggies would abhor losing at home to the Longhorns, but they’d have the consolation of finally earning an SEC football title, shared though it would be. First, A&M must beat Auburn at Auburn. But who hasn’t done that, right?
That makes four.
Still basking in the glow of whipping Georgia, Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2) need only take care of business versus a Florida team on its third quarterback and a woeful Mississippi State squad in Starkville to finally get a bite of the SEC pie. (Only Kentucky and Vanderbilt, then, would be left hungry since the split-division expansion of 1992.)
We’re at five.
Where’s Alabama? Right in the thick of it as usual, of course. Beat Oklahoma and Auburn in Weeks 13 and 14 and the Crimson Tide (7-2, 4-2) is there.
Hello, No. 6.
LSU (3-2) still needs three wins, but none of those would seem unreasonably difficult to attain. Florida, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma are left on the Tigers’ dance card.
Come on, 7!
Missouri is where it gets interesting. Hard to know what to expect of the Tigers (7-2, 3-2), who are currently playing without quarterback Brady Cook (ankle). But word is they might get him back for South Carolina this Saturday. Handle that and only the Maroons and Arkansas await. Some advice for Big Mo as it heads to the other Columbia: Whatever A&M did when it visited Williams-Brice, do the opposite.
And there it is. Eight SEC teams, all tied for the regular-season title at 6-2.
The SEC Championship Game? Ah, that’s a different story.
Having done away with divisions for the just-expanded, 16-team conference, the SEC installed a new tiebreaker policy for determining the top two teams that would meet in the SEC Championship. Including example scenarios, that policy printed out is 22 pages long.
At its core, it comes down to this:
- Head-to-head among tied teams;
- Record vs. common opponents;
- Record against the highest-place opponent;
- Combined winning percentage of all conference opponents for each team.
With only eight conference games, it’s unlikely the first two tiebreakers come into play. There wouldn’t be enough head-to-head competition or common opponents.
Heading into Week 12, Tennessee and Texas A&M are tied for first with 5-1 conference records. They’re followed by Texas (4-1), Georgia (5-2), Alabama (4-2), Ole Miss (3-2), LSU (3-2) and Missouri (3-2).
The most clear-cut scenario would be for Tennessee to win out against Georgia and Vanderbilt and Texas and Texas A&M to head into their season finale on Nov. 30 without another loss. Then it would be the Vols versus the Aggies-Longhorns winner in the SEC title game.
Is there a scenario in which Georgia returns to the SEC Championship game for the seventh time in the last eight years? Yes. The Bulldogs need A&M or Texas to drop a game before Week 14 while the rest of the two-loss teams win out.
SATURDAY’S GAME
No. 11 Georgia vs. No. 6 Tennessee, 7:30 p.m., ABC, 750 AM, 95.5 FM
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