College basketball fans are becoming armchair bracketologists as they make their picks for the NCAA Tournament.
Fans don’t need to know much about March Madness to know that every attempt at a perfect bracket needs a couple of upsets. One best way to look like a college basketball genius is to find the almost unrecognizable logos that knock off some of the sport’s blue bloods in the first round.
Top seeds win more often than not, of course, but the first-round upsets define what makes the Round of 64 so exciting.
There are several lower-level seeds that could cause some chaos before the first weekend of the tournament.
Here’s a look at five potential first round upsets to note before putting your bracket — and college basketball credibility — on the line.
No. 12 seed McNeese vs. No. 5 seed Clemson (-7.5)
McNeese is a hot-button Cinderella candidate entering the tournament after winning the Southland Conference’s regular season and tournament title. The Cowboys are riding an 11-game win streak into their 3:15 p.m. tipoff against Clemson.
The Tigers are fresh off an impressive Elite Eight run as a No. 6 seed last season and impressed again in ACC play in 2025. Clemson allowed the ACC’s second-least points per game at 65.7 and tallied an impressive field-goal percentage at 46.5% with 11.2 offensive rebounds per game.
McNeese finished 19-1 in its conference but also showed it could compete with high-major competition in single digit losses to No. 2 seed Alabama and No. 8 seed Mississippi State earlier this season. The Cowboys — along with fan-favorite manager/boom-box guardian Amir Khan — hope to keep dancing with an impressive upset on Thursday.
No. 13 seed High Point vs. No. 4 seed Purdue (-10.5)
High Point has the makings of a classic upset candidate in the 12:40 p.m. slot Thursday. The Panthers led the Big South in shooting percentage at 49.4% and scoring defense, allowing an average of 68.8 points per game.
High Point also proved it could show up well in tournament play last week when it added a Big South Championship to its postseason resume.
Purdue has lost in the first round in two of the last four seasons. The Boilermakers did make a run all the way to the national championship game in 2024.
No. 12 seed UC San Diego vs. No. 5 seed Michigan (-3.5)
Perhaps the other most-anticipated upset of the first round (No. 12 Colorado State is favored to beat No. 5 seed Memphis) will tip off at 10 p.m. Thursday. UC San Diego makes its Division I NCAA Tournament debut after winning the Big West conference.
The Tritons went 30-4 in their first tournament-eligible year since joining Division I, including a 75-73 nonconference win over No. 10 seed Utah State. UC San Diego has won 15 consecutive games, 13 of which have been by a double-digit margin.
Michigan will break a two-year March Madness drought after finishing the season red-hot with a Big Ten Tournament title. The Wolverines knocked off three consecutive ranked Big Ten opponents for their first conference championship since 2018.
No. 13 seed Yale vs. No. 4 seed Texas A&M (-7.5)
Yale might mainly be on here for history’s sake, but its first round upset of No. 4 seed Auburn in 2024 surely is fresh enough for the top-ranked Tigers. The Bulldogs shot 9-of-20 from 3-point range in a 78-76 upset that would have been the top upset of the weekend if Oakland’s Jack Gohlke didn’t exist.
The Bulldogs are facing another No. 4 seed from the SEC this season, but Texas A&M does pose some different threats. The Aggies boast the second-best scoring defense in the SEC (67.9 points allowed per game) and have several impressive scorers in their back court.
Texas A&M’s 3-point defense isn’t as strong as its overall defensive standing. The Aggies allow 25.8 attempts from 3-point range per game with opponents shooting at 33.34% from deep.
No. 13 seed Grand Canyon vs. No. 4 seed Maryland (-11.5)
Another history-based pick, Grand Canyon is coming fresh off a first-round upset of No. 5 seed St. Mary’s last season. The Antelopes will have to play another near-perfect game to knock off a Maryland team with its share of star power, but the Western Athletic Conference’s top offense could challenge the Terrapins if they come out slow.
Grand Canyon has amassed some tournament experience as it makes its four appearance in five years. Maryland boasts a starting five with several NBA prospects in center Derik Queen and guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie.
Other potential NBA talents will certainly challenge Grand Canyon, but good offense tends to beat good defense, and the Antelopes have proved they can beat top teams on the right day.
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