Hawks mailbag: When will the Hawks make the playoffs again?

Based off the questions I got for this story, I can tell folks are transitioning from focusing on “rebuilding” to a “let’s start winning some games, shall we?” mindset, so that’s why I led off with this one. And I don’t blame you. The Hawks haven’t made the playoffs since the 2016-17 season, they’ve combined for 73 wins the past three years (taking into account this season has 15 games still outstanding), Travis Schlenk’s fourth draft as general manager is approaching, and after surrounding their young “Core Five” players with a rough supporting cast in 2019, they’ve already taken some steps to improve the roster for 2020.

Adding Clint Capela and shedding a few bad expiring contracts gives the Hawks a boost, but especially before we know what they’ll add in free agency and the draft (whenever that happens), it’s too soon to project when they’ll compete for a playoff spot, which is probably a more realistic goal to shoot for considering they weren’t competitive this season (20-47). Think this year’s Grizzlies, who entered the season with minimal expectations but clawed their way to eighth place in the West (32-33) at the time of the season’s suspension.

The good news is, the Hawks are in the East, which allows for much more upward mobility than the West, with Schlenk himself saying he thought the Hawks could have had a shot at the playoffs this season had things gone their way (which, of course, didn't happen at all). When I asked Schlenk if he agreed with coach Lloyd Pierce, who is sticking by his statement that the Hawks are a playoff team next season, he basically said it was hard to project before knowing what would happen in the offseason.

I’ll say this, though: next season, it doesn’t look like the Hawks will have many reasons not to take a sizable step forward. They were projecting to have around $50 million in cap space, although they won’t know their exact spending power until the league reveals how much of a cap hit it has taken because of the pandemic. Their young team will be one year older, and their two rookies who shoulder a lot of defensive responsibility, De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish, got oodles of game experience under their belts. They’ll have Capela as the go-to at center, with Dewayne Dedmon backing him up, which should give the Hawks more of a defensive anchor and improved rebounding. They return All-Star starter Trae Young and 20-and-10 machine John Collins, who will be able to play more of his natural position at power forward. And they’ll add more talent through the draft, since they’ll have a high pick. But can they put all those pieces together and translate them to wins? We’ll see.

In a best-case scenario where the NBA does come back in 2020 to finish out the season, do you think the league will play its remaining regular-season games and then the playoffs or start the bracket with the current projected field? 

I'll give my opinion, but even commissioner Adam Silver doesn't know the answer to that yet. I think as days go by and we get further and further away from the week the regular season was supposed to end (the Hawks' last game would have been April 15), restarting those games becomes increasingly less likely. Whenever it is safe to do so – which may not be for a while, depending on testing data and what the CDC and other experts recommend – I think it makes the most sense to resume with the playoffs, based off the standings at the time play was suspended, probably without fans in attendance. I know that might seem like a bleak take for a best-case scenario.

On a conference call with media Friday, Silver said resuming the regular season is still on the table, but he just doesn’t have enough information to make that kind of decision yet. He also said that potentially delaying the start of next season was an option. Stay tuned.

Having watched this team all year, the defense is my biggest area of concern. Having Dedmon back is going to help some, but what do you think needs to be done THIS offseason to help the D? (Also, how are the Hawks planning on addressing defense going forward especially with Trae Young on the floor?) 

I decided to combine these questions! I’m of a slightly different mindset than some when it comes to who/what skill set the Hawks should target this offseason. On one hand, yes, the Hawks had shooting issues this season, with the worst 3-point percentage in the league (33.3%) and ranking No. 23 in field-goal percentage (44.9%), but they’ve already shed some of those problems by letting go of veterans that didn’t contribute much. I think it’s very important for them to find players that can contribute on defense, too, especially considering how much Young plays (since he’s the nucleus of the Hawks’ offense) and how he struggles to defend. Depending on who’s available, I think Isaac Okoro or Deni Avdija could be solid picks for Atlanta, since they can add value on offense and defense.

Schlenk has said he is pretty committed to keeping their first- and second-round picks, and for that first pick, the Hawks will go for talent over fit.

Regarding Young, Schlenk also said he sees Reddish as a big part of the Hawks compensating for Young’s weaknesses on defense, and adding Capela into the mix should improve them quite a bit in that regard, provided he’s healthy.

With Cam really finding his groove at the end of the season and Clint starting at the 5 next season, do you think there will be some changes in the starting 5? Specifically on the wing? 

Building on my last response, I don’t think it’s crazy to imagine the starting lineup fluctuating if Reddish can continue improving as a shooter, which we saw start to happen in January.

Without knowing who the Hawks will add in the draft/free agency, it’s hard to say, but both Kevin Huerter and De’Andre Hunter had up-and-down seasons, Huerter as he worked through injuries, Hunter as he went through your typical rookie struggles, so neither of those spots appear to be truly locked down.

The Hawks have a bit of a logjam at the 5. Which center is the least likely to be there at the beginning of next season?

Center was a big weakness for the Hawks this season, when it came to defense and rebounding, and that’s in part why you saw so much small-ball with Collins at the 5. I think the least likely to return is probably Damian Jones, who will be a free agent. Jones averaged 5.6 points, 3.7 rebounds and 0.7 blocks in 55 games, and I’m just not sure the Hawks will re-sign him when they have both Capela and Dedmon on the roster.