It has been so long since we could feel anything approaching enthusiasm about the Braves’ major-league product that I almost feel bad saying what I’m about to say: This doesn’t figure to be the year they get good again. This should be the year they go from bad to fair-to-middling.
After last season's rousing finish, the Braves proclaimed their remake Ahead Of Schedule, a remarkable admission given that these things rarely hew to timetables. Tearing-down-to-build-up tends to involve a truly terrible season or two — or three, if you're the Astros — and that hasn't quite happened here.
If the Braves can sell off nearly every marketable asset and go from having one of baseball’s worst farm systems to the very best without suffering a 100-loss season, it would constitute a bloomin’ miracle. Not to get ahead of ourselves, but that’s where they’re headed. In barely 2 1/2 years, they’ve accumulated enough prospects to make this work. They don’t need to do another Shelby Miller trade. (They did two of those, both tremendous.)
The first offseason under John Coppolella and John Hart was devoted to shedding big-money assets and restocking a fallow farm. The second was highlighted by Miller-for-Swanson/Inciarte/Blair, the greatest trade of this century. The third brought a more measured approach, which tells us two things: First, that the Braves like where they’re headed; second, that the whiff of actual progress hasn’t become an intoxicant.
The two best trades of this offseason were executed by the White Sox, who dealt lefty Chris Sale to the Red Sox and outfielder Adam Eaton to the Nationals. Boston and Washington could well meet in the World Series this year or next, but the Pale Hose changed their franchise with those two deals. They went from being a going-nowhere organization to the proud new owners of four of Baseball America’s top 36 prospects — two from the Red Sox, two from the Nats.
The point being: The Braves were once the White Sox but aren’t anymore. (Coppolella has said he’s done trading big-league assets for prospects, which is why Julio Teheran remains in place.) But, coming off seasons of 67 and 68 wins, they aren’t at that Nearly There place where selling the farm makes sense, assuming it ever does.
Hence the tweaking. Paying Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Jaime Garcia $32.5 million for one season’s work might seem a lavish layout, but is it? For $32.5 million, they’re getting three pitchers — 60 percent of a rotation — who worked 533 innings last season with a collective Baseball-Reference WAR (wins above replacement) value of 4.6.
This is what was gotten from Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair and Williams Perez, who started the second-, fourth- and fifth-most games for the 2016 Braves — 280 1/3 innings and a WAR of minus-1.5. That rotation was the third-worst in the majors. The Braves have no illusions that Colon, Dickey and Garcia will make them great, but they should work enough good innings to hand enough winnable games to this bullpen to bring this team close to .500.
Starting pitching is the most overpriced commodity in an overpriced sport, which is why it’s better to grow your own, which the Braves are doing. They don’t want to hurry any of their bigger pitching talents, many of whom are teenagers. This also applies to Ozzie Albies, who’s 20 and coming off an injury.
The Braves’ best acquisition of this offseason was Sean Rodriguez, whom they envision as their Ben Zobrist — an everyday player who plays a different position every other day. Ticketed for a heavy dose of second base, Rodriguez was hurt in a car accident and could miss the season. Their response wasn’t to say, “We’ll plug in Ozzie at second base and hope for the best.” Their response was to rent Brandon Phillips for pennies on the dollar. (The Reds are swallowing all but $1 million of his salary.)
Phillips is 35 and doesn’t have much left. He could be gone by July. But he’s here as a bridge, same as the three new starting pitchers, all of whom could be elsewhere next spring. Having finished last season on a high, the Braves want to give their big-league team every chance — there’s a new ballpark involved, lest we forget — without compromising the work of 2 1/2 years.
It's possible that Albies will be starting at second base and that Sean Newcomb could have supplanted Garcia/Dickey in the rotation by midsummer, but the shining stars of Rome's Sally League championship team — "our flagship," Coppolella has called it — remain a ways away. That's not a failure. That's how this works.
Of the many things to like about these Braves, the best part is that they know who they are. Having come really far really fast, they’re in no hurry. This won’t be their year of arrival, and they’re OK with that. But an arrival is coming.
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