The Braves, Phillies and Nationals are in a tight race for the National League East title. And with how deep the NL is, there’s a strong possibility only one makes the playoffs.
Philadelphia held a one-game lead over the Braves, and a lead of 5-1/2 games over the Nationals before the latter two squared off Wednesday. The Phillies lost to Arizona earlier in the day.
In the case of the Braves and Phillies, it will come down to the schedule and any injuries before the teams meet seven times in the final two weeks of the season. The Nationals need to stay hot while the Braves and Phillies slip – that’s what happens when you dig yourself into an early hole.
Injuries are impossible to predict, while performance variance is high; schedules are what they are, and that’s what we’ll examine below.
The Braves easily have the toughest overall slate. If you’re wondering how, it’s simple: Eleven of the NL’s 15 teams have winning records, and the Braves additionally drew the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays. They’re already finished playing the Reds and Padres, the only two losing NL teams outside their division.
Which makes for a tough situation: The Braves play 41 of their remaining 52 games against teams at or near .500. They’ll have only three off-days in that span, only one of which comes in this month (Aug. 27).
Let’s assume the Braves stay within striking distance of first place through August. Their September opponents: Pittsburgh, Boston, at Arizona, at San Francisco, Washington, St. Louis, Philadelphia, at the Mets, at Philadelphia.
All winning teams outside the Mets, and all teams that either bought at the trade deadline or have enough pride to play hard even if the postseason is slipping away (the Cardinals and Giants come to mind).
It would help if Ender Inciarte continues hitting, Ronald Acuna stays hot at leadoff and the bullpen additions hold firm. They’ll have to if the Braves are going to survive a brutal slate and play into October.
The Phillies, meanwhile, play 20 of their next 37 against losing teams. After they finish with the Diamondbacks on Wednesday, eight of their next 10 feature the Padres and Mets.
But if the Braves keep it close, then they can take the division directly from the Phillies. Philadelphia ends the season with four in Atlanta, four in Colorado and hosting the Braves for the final regular-season series. The Braves play the Mets while the Phillies are in Denver.
After the Nationals finish with the Braves, they see winning teams in 13 of their next 19, with six games against the Phillies. Their September is brutal: Milwaukee, St. Louis, Chicago Cubs, at Philadelphia, at Atlanta.
They’ll then have a seven-game stretch with the Mets and Marlins before ending the season in Colorado, but that buffer may not come soon enough. But it’s at least a redeeming quality that the Nationals will have head-to-head opportunities against the teams they’re trying to pass.
On paper, the Phillies have the clearest route to the playoffs. They’re still young and unproven, leaving thoughts about them perishing when it matters most. But given what the Braves and Nationals are faced with, they might be able to survive a skid.
By the same token, if “on paper” were the judge, the Nationals would be comfortably in first place. Six teams are within six games of the Braves and Brewers, who hold the NL wild-card spots as of Tuesday afternoon.
But in a nutshell, the Braves are part of meaningful late-season baseball again. However it plays out, at least the fans have something to follow this time of year besides the start of football season.
