NASHVILLE — The Braves traded away another of their best and most popular players Tuesday, but this time it should be tough for any Atlanta fans to criticize the move given the soaring return they got from the Diamondbacks for pitcher Shelby Miller.
The Braves traded Miller, an All-Star right-hander, in exchange for potential star outfielder Ender Inciarte, right-handed prospect Aaron Blair and top shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson, who played at Marietta High School and was the No. 1 overall selection in the 2015 June draft out of Vanderbilt. The Braves also sent minor league lefty Gabe Speier to Arizona.
It was a blockbuster deal that jolted the third day of activities at baseball’s Winter Meetings at the Opryland Hotel, where Miller had been at the center of trade rumors. Braves employees celebrated deep into the night, while executives and scouts in the hotel lobby marveled at how much talent the Braves got back in the trade.
“The D-backs were aggressive. This is a club that just went out and signed Zack Greinke,” Braves president of baseball operations John Hart said. “(Miller) is a guy that is going to help this club, I think, be NL favorites. With that said, we’re in a little different position…. We wanted to make it painful for them with players that we think are going to be a big part of our future.”
The Diamondbaacks refused repeatedly to include All-Star center fielder A.J. Pollock in a deal. But the Braves ended up with an even better long-term haul that included a a dynamic talent who could play center field and bat leadoff, a local product who could become a strong all-around shortstop within a few years, and a potential mid-rotation starter.
Inciarte, who just turned 25, hit .303 with 38 extra-base hits (six homers) and 21 stolen bases in his second full season, with a .338 OBP and 58 strikeouts in 561 plate appearances. Despite bouncing between all three outfield positions he ranked fourth in the National League with 2.6 defensive WAR — a few spots ahead of former Braves right fielder Jason Heyward (2.0).
His 29 Defensive Runs Saved in 2015 were second-most in the majors behind Tampa Bay center fielder Kevin Kiermaier’s 42, and Inciarte’s 52 DRS since his debut in 2014 are third-most among all outfielders in that span.
Inciarte started 98 games at the outfield corners (56 in right) and 18 games in center in 2015, after making 71 starts in center in 2014 when he finished fifth in the National League Rookie of the Year balloting. The Venezuela native bats left-handed and won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season.
Blair, 23, was 12-5 with a 2.92 ERA in 26 games — 13 starts in Double-A, 12 starts in Triple-A — and had 120 strikeouts in 160 1/3 innings. He was rated the No. 40 prospect in Baseball America’s Top 100 before last season, and has a 3.22 ERA in 64 games over three minor league seasons, with 332 strikeouts in 363 innings.
The real coup of the deal for the Braves could be Swanson, 21, who hit .289 with a .394 OBP and .876 OPS in 22 games at short-season Single-A Hillsboro after being the top pick in the June draft. The Braves took advantage of a recent rule change that allows picks from the previous draft to be traded so soon.
Swanson, a right-handed-hitting speedster with a compact stroke, good strike-zone recognition and perhaps 15-20 homer potential, could be ready for the big leagues as soon as 2017.
The Braves plan to start Erick Aybar at shortstop for one season before he becomes a free agent. They got Aybar in last month’s trade that sent defensive shortstop extraordinaire Andrelton Simmons to the Angels.
“Trading Shelby Miller is hard,” Braves general manager John Coppolella said. “I understand he’s only been here for a year, but he’s a fan favorite, he’s an All-Star. But as we were talking about going through that streak where he got the worst run support maybe ever, this guy stayed positive. Every day he said, ‘Hey look, the next start I have is when it turns around.’ This guy battled. This guy’s a warrior. We didn’t want to trade this guy. And I think that Arizona made a great deal for what they’re trying to do right now… They’ve got a really good team, and this guy just made them a whole lot better. And if I’m L.A. or San Francisco, it’s a rough night. Because these guys just got a whole lot better.
“… With that being said, everything we’ve done has been with a plan. It’s been for the future. But this trade was for guys who are not light-years away. We got a guy who’s playing center field, who hit over .300 this year, who stole over 20 bases, who was one of the leaders in Defensive Runs Saved. He’s on our team next year; he’s a big part of our team.”
And they got a good staring-pitcher prospect and middle infielder they’ll control for at least six seasons apiece.
In his first day on a professional field after signing with Arizona in July, Swanson was hit in the face by a fastball from Diamondbacks prospect Yoan Lopez in during a simulated game. He suffered a mild concussion, needed 14 stitches on his mouth, but missed only about a week of action.
Swanson, who grew up a Braves fan, got a $6.5 million signing bonus from the Diamondbacks, after batting .335 with a .423 OBP, .623 slugging percentage, 15 homers, 24 doubles, six triples and 16 steals during his junior season at Vanderbilt.
Top Braves infield prospect Ozzie Albies, who would’ve moved from shortstop to second base eventually if Simmons had not been traded, can again be expected to make that move to accomodate Swanson. Albies, who turns 19 in January, hit .310 with a .368 OBP at low-A Rome in 2015, his first season above rookie ball.
The Diamondbacks, clealy in win-now mode after signing ace Zack Greinke to a six-year, $206.5 million contract, forked over a large bounty to acquire another high-level starter in Miller, who was 6-17 last season despite posting a 3.02 ERA and ranking among the league’s statistical leaders in several categories.
Miller was projected to make about $5 million in his first year of arbitration eligibility, and might have made between $22 million and $30 million over three seasons before free-agent eligibility after 2018. The Diamondbacks got three years of contractual control of Miller, while the Braves got 17 seasons of control over the trio they acquired from Arizona.
In Miller’s only season with the Braves, who got him from St. Louis in November 2014 trade that sent Jason Heyward to St. Louis, he posted career-bests in ERA, strikeouts (171) and innings (205 1/3 innings), but endured terrible run support during a franchise-record 23-start winless streak that he snapped with a win on the final day of the season.
Miller was 5-3 with a 1.94 ERA and .200 opponents’ average in his first 15 starts for the Braves, and 1-14 with a 4.00 ERA and .270 opponents’ average in his last 18 starts.
His overall run support (2.54 per nine innings pitched) was more than a half-run lower than any other major league starter, and during his 0-16 skid he got 1.51 runs per nine innings, including one or no runs while in 17 of 23 starts.
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