Because of Wednesday’s 0-0 draw at the New York Red Bulls, Atlanta United most likely will finish either fifth or fourth in the MLS Eastern Conference standings.
There is an extremely unlikely possibility that the team could miss the postseason for the second consecutive season but it involves losing by a large margin at Cincinnati, which is the worst team in MLS, and several other results going against it.
The Five Stripes are in fifth with 48 points with one game remaining. It is tied with Orlando on points, and tied on the first tie-breaker (wins) but holds the second tie-breaker (goal-difference). The top seven teams will advance to the playoffs. The top four teams will get to host a playoff game. Atlanta United manager Gonzalo Pineda and the players have said they want to host a playoff game. The playoffs are scheduled to start Nov. 20.
Atlanta United can’t finish any higher than fourth, which currently is occupied by NYCFC and its 50 points. With a win against Cincinnati, Atlanta United will finish with 51 points. With a draw, it will finish with 49 points. With a loss, it will stay at 48 points.
Here are Atlanta United’s scenarios depending upon its result and others Sunday:
- With a win, it will at least stay in fifth place if NYCFC draws or defeats Philadelphia.
- With a win and if Philadelphia defeats NYCFC, the Five Stripes will finish in fourth and host a playoff game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
A draw would bring several scenarios into play, depending upon other results:
- A draw and an Orlando win over Montreal, a NYCFC loss to Philadelphia and a Red Bulls win at Nashville would see Atlanta United fall to seventh. In that scenario, Orlando would finish with 51 points, NYCFC with 50, the Red Bulls with 50, and Atlanta United would finish with 49.
- A draw and a Montreal win over Orlando and a Red Bulls win at Nashville would see Atlanta United fall to seventh. In that scenario, the Red Bulls would finish with 50, Montreal with 49 and the first tiebreaker of number of wins (13-12) over Atlanta United, and Atlanta United with 49.
- A draw and and Orlando win over Montreal, a NYCFC loss to Philadelphia and a Red Bulls draw or loss at Nashville would see Atlanta United fall to sixth. In that scenario, Orlando would finish with 51 points, NYCFC with 50, Atlanta United with 49 and the Red Bulls with no more than 48.
- A draw and an Orlando loss at Montreal and a Red Bulls draw or loss at Nashville would see Atlanta United drop to sixth. In that scenario, Montreal and Atlanta United would finish with 49 points, which means Montreal would finish fifth, Atlanta United sixth and Orlando or the Red Bulls would take seventh.
- A draw and an Orlando draw at Montreal and a Red Bulls win at Nashville would see Atlanta United fall to sixth. In that scenario, the Red Bulls would finish with 50 points, and Atlanta United and Orlando would be tied with 49. Atlanta United holds the second tie-breaker, goal-difference.
- A draw and an Orlando draw at Montreal and a Red Bulls draw or loss at Nashville would see Atlanta United stay in fifth.
The only way Atlanta United can’t make the playoffs is if it were to lose at Cincinnati by at least seven goals plus the number of goals that Montreal were to defeat Orlando by and the Red Bulls were to earn at least a point against Nashville.
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