A by-the-numbers look at Atlanta United’s match versus Cincinnati, scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Saturday at TQL Stadium:
Goals
Atlanta United has four goals, led by Emmanuel Latte Lath’s three.
Cincinnati has scored four goals, led by Kevin Denkey’s two.
What does it mean? Neither team is burning the nets. Atlanta United will play without Miguel Almiron because he was called into his national team. Denkey will be missing for the same reason.
Expected goals
Atlanta United has 4.7 expected goals. Philadelphia leads with 8.2, according to fbref.com.
Cincinnati has 5.3 expected goals this season. New England is last with 1.7.
What does it mean? Atlanta United has scored as many goals as it should have. Cincinnati should have more. For whatever reason, chemistry, bad luck, good defense by opponents, neither team is in good form. Atlanta United’s non-penalty goals minus non-penalty expected goals is minus-0.7, according to fbref.com. Cincinnati’s is minus-1.5. Philadelphia leads with 3.7. Montreal ranks last at minus-2.7.
Goals allowed
Atlanta United has allowed six goals. St. Louis is first with zero goals allowed.
Cincinnati has allowed six goals. Orlando and Toronto are last with 10 goals allowed.
What does it mean? Atlanta United’s individual mistakes continue to be punished, including two goals in last week’s loss to Miami. Cincinnati may be without centerback Miles Robinson, which won’t help its defense.
Expected goals allowed
Atlanta United has 6.0 expected goals allowed. Austin leads with 2.6.
Cincinnati has 6.0 expected goals allowed. Orlando is last with 7.7.
What does it mean? Both teams are allowing exactly the number of goals they should. Atlanta United’s goals allowed should be much lower because individual mistakes are the reason for at least five of them. This is proved by fbref’s stat non-penalty goals allowed minus non-penalty expected goals allowed. Atlanta United’s and Cincinnati’s are each 0.0. St. Louis’ opponents are underperforming (-3.7) and Toronto’s opponents are overperforming (4.8).
Key passes
Atlanta United has 43 key passes, fifth most in the league. Orlando and Seattle lead (47).
Cincinnati has 34 key passes. New England is last (21).
What does it mean? Atlanta United continues to create lots of chances, but its decision-making in the final third of the field needs to be better, according to manager Ronny Deila. He said he needs to take away the players’ possible fear of making mistakes. Atlanta United’s leaders, Saba Lobjanidze and Alexey Miranchuk, will be available Saturday.
Shots
Atlanta United has 51 shots. San Jose leads (55).
Cincinnati has taken 46 shots. New England is last (30).
What does it mean? Looking at Saturday, Cincinnati will be without its top striker, Denkey. Atlanta United will have its top striker, Latte Lath, as well as Lobjanidze and Miranchuk.
Shots on goal
Atlanta United has 21 shots on goal, fourth most. Vancouver leads (26).
Cincinnati has 17 shots on goal. New England is last (5).
What does it mean? Four goals from 21 shots on goal could be better. Cincinnati could be without Robinson, so Atlanta United’s ratio of shots on goal per 90 (5.25) should increase. Because of international call-ups of Stian Gregersen, Luis Abram, Noah Cobb and Efrain Morales, Atlanta United will have just one healthy centerback. Cincinnati’s ratio (4.25) could also increase.
Shots allowed and shots on goal allowed
Atlanta United has allowed 43 shots, 19 on goal. San Diego and Vancouver lead in shots allowed (28) and Vancouver leads in shot on goal allowed (6).
Cincinnati has allowed 50 shots, 16 on goal. Colorado has allowed the most shots (76) and Montreal and Portland lead in shots on goal allowed (27).
What does it mean? Both team’s depleted defenses could result in a high-scoring match.
For more content about Atlanta United
Follow me on Twitter/X @DougRobersonAJC
On Bluesky @dougrobersonajc.bsky.social
On Facebook at Atlanta United News Now
On Instagram at DouglasDavidRoberson
Atlanta United coverage on The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Stay up to date every day on breaking news, in-depth investigations, politics, sports, entertainment, food and dining and so much more by becoming a subscriber to the AJC. Go to AJC.com/start for a very special offer and unlock hundreds of original articles published daily on the refreshed AJC.com and the new AJC mobile app. Plus, access to our news alerts, subscriber-only events, AJC original shows, films and videos, newsletters, and so much more.
Atlanta United’s 2025 schedule
Feb. 22 Atlanta United 3, Montreal 2
March 1 Charlotte 2, Atlanta United 0
March 8 Atlanta United 0, New York Red Bulls 0
March 16 Miami 2, Atlanta United 1
March 22 at Cincinnati, 2:30 p.m., Apple
March 29 vs. NYCFC, 7:30 p.m., Apple
April 5 vs. Dallas, 7:30 p.m., Apple
April 12 vs. New England, 2:30 p.m., Apple, Fox
April 19 at Philadelphia, 7:30 p.m., Apple
April 26 at Orlando, 7 p.m., Apple, Fox
May 3 vs. Nashville, 2:30 p.m., Apple, Fox
May 10 at Chicago, 2:30 p.m., Apple
May 14 at Austin, 8:30 p.m., Apple
May 17 vs. Philadelphia, 7:30 p.m., Apple
May 25 vs. Cincinnati, 7 p.m., Apple
May 28 vs. Orlando, 7:30 p.m., Apple
May 31 at Red Bulls, 7:30 p.m., Apple
June 12 at NYCFC, 7:30 p.m., Apple
June 25 at Columbus, 7:30 p.m., Apple
June 28 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., Apple
July 5 at D.C. United, 7:30 p.m., Apple
July 12 at Toronto, 7:30 p.m., Apple
July 16 vs. Chicago, 7:30 p.m., Apple, FS1
July 19 vs. Charlotte, 7:30 p.m., Apple
July 26 vs. Seattle, 7:30 p.m., Apple
July 30 vs. Necaxa, Leagues Cup
Aug. 2. vs. Pumas in Orlando, Leagues Cup
Aug. 6 vs. Atlas, Leagues Cup
Aug. 9 at Montreal, 7:30 p.m., Apple
Aug. 16 at Colorado, 9:30 p.m., Apple
Aug. 24 vs. Toronto, 5 p.m., Apple
Aug. 30 at Nashville, 8:30 p.m. Apple
Sept. 13 vs. Columbus, 7:30 p.m., Apple
Sept. 20 vs. San Diego, 4:30 p.m., Apple
Sept. 27 at New England, 7:30 p.m., Apple
Oct. 5 at LAFC, 10:30 p.m., Apple
Oct. 18 vs. D.C. United, 6 p.m., Apple
About the Author
Keep Reading
The Latest
Featured
