The question I get asked the most is if Atlanta United President Garth Lagerwey will hire Rob Valentino as the team’s next permanent manager.
Valentino has served as interim since Gonzalo Pineda was fired on June 3.
Valentino, an assistant to several different Atlanta United managers, went 6-6-6 in the regular season, led the team into the playoffs and is one win from knocking out heavily favored Miami and advancing into the next round of the playoffs.
The narrative is short story-worthy.
Lagerwey is a data-driven decision-maker.
Let’s look at the data with the caveat that Valentino didn’t have Giorgos Giakoumakis for the season’s final 18 league matches after he was sold on June 16, or Thiago Almada for the final 14 after both were sold during the summer window. Almada’s sale went through on July 6. Giakoumakis appeared in 11 matches this season, none after June 2. Almada appeared in 17 matches, none after June 29.
Valentino did have Pedro Amador, who was signed for depth until Caleb Wiley was shockingly sold to Chelsea. Amador has proved to be one of since-fired Technical Director Carlos Bocanegra’s best finds. Valentino also had Alexey Miranchuk, signed to replace Almada. Miranchuk played the final nine regular season matches.
Category | Pineda | Valentino | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Games | 16 | 18 | 34 |
Goals | 22 | 24 | 46 |
Goals allowed | 21 | 28 | 49 |
Assists | 23 | 21 | 44 |
Shots | 249 | 244 | 493 |
Shots allowed | 224 | 266 | 490 |
Shots on goal | 76 | 90 | 166 |
Shots on goal allowed | 68 | 103 | 171 |
Goals per game | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Goals allowed per game | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.45 |
Assists per game | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Shots per game | 15.6 | 13.6 | 14.5 |
Shots allowed per game | 14.0 | 14.8 | 14.4 |
SOG per game | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
SOG allowed per game | 4.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 |
Expected goals | 25.4 | 25.9 | 51.3 |
Expected goals per game | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
Expected goals allowed | 20.5 | 28.4 | 48.9 |
Expected goals allowed per game | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.45 |
Record | 4-8-4 | 6-6-6 |
Valentino should ultimately be judged on his recor
d, which was better than Pineda’s. The remaining stats
don’t really flatter him.
To be fair, Valentino jumped into coaching the team during a very busy stretch when he didn’t have a lot of time to really hone what he wanted to do with the talent.
I thought it might be more fair to look at the final five matches, after Valentino had a few international breaks to really work on what he wanted to implement.
Category | Red Bulls | Orlando | Montreal |
---|---|---|---|
Goals | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Goals allowed | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Assists | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Shots | 20 | 9 | 13 |
Shots allowed | 6 | 21 | 18 |
Shots on goal | 6 | 5 | 7 |
SOG allowed | 2 | 10 | 6 |
Expected goals | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
Xg allowed | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.5 |
Now, let’s compare those five-match averages to the season averages:
Category | 5 | Season | |
---|---|---|---|
Goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | |
Goals allowed | 1.4 | 1.4 | |
Assists | 1.6 | 1.3 | |
Shots | 12.6 | 14.5 | |
Shots allowed | 15.4 | 14.4 | |
Shots on goal | 4.8 | 4.9 | |
SOG allowed | 6.2 | 5.0 | |
Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.5 | |
Xg allowed | 1.9 | 1.4 |
The five-match averages are skewed because the first match at Miami was Atlanta United’s third in seven days. The players were exhausted. However, it was the schedule so I’m not going to take those out of the sample. Feel free to do so, if you want.
In short, the stats indicate that it doesn’t seem to matter if it was Pineda managing the team or Valentino. The underlying stats were going to be very similar.
What isn’t similar is the record and the fact that the team has a chance to advance in the playoffs for the second consecutive round, something it hasn’t done since 2019.
That’s what I presume Valentino will be judged on.
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Atlanta United’s 2024 schedule
Feb. 24 Columbus 1, Atlanta United 0
March 9 Atlanta United 4, New England 1
March 17 Atlanta United 2, Orlando 0
March 23 Toronto 2, Atlanta United 0
March 31 Atlanta United 3, Chicago 0
April 6 Atlanta United 1, NYCFC 1
April 14 Atlanta United 2, Philadelphia 2
April 20 Cincinnati 2, Atlanta United 1
April 27 Atlanta United 1, Chicago 1
May 4 Minnesota 2, Atlanta United 1
May 7 Atlanta United 3, Charlotte Independence 0 in U.S. Open Cup
May 11 D.C. United 3, Atlanta United 2
May 15 Cincinnati 1, Atlanta United 0
May 18 Atlanta United 1, Nashville 1
May 21 Atlanta United 0 (5), Charleston 0 (4) in U.S. Open Cup
May 25 LAFC 1, Atlanta United 0
May 29 Atlanta United 3, Miami 1
June 2 Charlotte 3, Atlanta United 2
June 15 Atlanta United 2, Houston 2
June 19 Atlanta United 1, D.C. United 0
June 22 Atlanta United 1, St. Louis 1
June 29 Atlanta United 2, Toronto 1
July 3 New England 2, Atlanta United 1
July 6 Real Salt Lake 5, Atlanta United 2
July 9 vs. Indy Eleven 2, Atlanta United 1 in U.S. Open Cup
July 13 Montreal 1, Atlanta United 0
July 17 Atlanta United 2, NYCFC 2
July 20 Atlanta United 2, Columbus 1
July 26 D.C. United 3 (6), Atlanta United 3 (5) in Leagues Cup
Aug. 4 Santos Laguna 0 (5), Atlanta United 0 (3) in Leagues Cup
Aug. 24 L.A. Galaxy 2, Atlanta United 0
Aug. 31 Atlanta United 1, Charlotte 0
Sept. 14 Nashville 2, Atlanta United 0
Sept. 18 Atlanta United 2, Inter Miami 2
Sept. 21 Atlanta United 2, Red Bulls 2
Sept. 28 Atlanta United 1, Philadelphia 1
Oct. 2 Montreal 2, Atlanta United 1
Oct. 5 Atlanta United 2, Red Bulls 1
Oct. 19 Atlanta United 2, Orlando 1
Oct. 22 Atlanta United 2 (5), Montreal 2 (4) in wild card round
Oct. 25 Inter Miami 2, Atlanta United 1 in playoffs, Game 1
Nov. 2 Atlanta United 2, Inter Miami 1 in playoffs, Game 2
Nov. 9 Atlanta United at Inter Miami in playoffs, Game 3