If Atlanta United wins ... if it were only that simple

Atlanta United players recognize that they have only themselves to blame for the position they face in Saturday’s regular-season finale at Orlando.

The Five Stripes must win and then hope that at least two of three other matches — Montreal hosting NYCFC, D.C. United hosting Charlotte and Philadelphia hosting Cincinnati — go their way for them to make the playoffs for the second consecutive season.

“It’s only about winning the game. ... Everything else we can’t control,” interim manager Rob Valentino said. “So that’s the unfortunate part that we are in, that we’ve dropped results, not only throughout the season, but just that last little bit last week. … We could have had it in our hands. We don’t. So, so now we need to win the game, and then from there we’ll see where everything lies at the end of the day.”

In its simplest path to make the postseason, Atlanta United, which has 37 points, needs Montreal and D.C. United to lose. If those teams finish tied in points, Atlanta United would advance because of tiebreakers. A more complicated path includes one of those teams losing and Philadelphia not winning.

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Had Atlanta United won more than one of its past six matches it wouldn’t be in this situation. That’s how the team has played all season, first under manager Gonzalo Pineda, who was fired in June, and then under Valentino. Its longest win streak was two matches, and that came in the season’s second and third matches.

If Atlanta United defeats Orlando, it would have its second two-match win streak because it defeated the Red Bulls in its previous match to set up this Decision Day quandary.

Winger Saba Lobjanidze said making the playoffs would make up for the disappointment of the season.

“It was tough season, a really difficult season, but if (we) go through in the playoffs, it will be amazing,” he said.

The first challenge, defeating Orlando, won’t be easy.

The Lions are 10-2-1 in their past 13 matches, taking the most points of any team in MLS since July 1. They’ve scored at least two goals in 11 of their past 13 matches.

And, like Atlanta United, Orlando has something to play for. If it wins, it will clinch the fourth seed and home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. It also would very much enjoy ending Atlanta United’s season.

“Oscar’s (Pareja) done a great job of coaching that team,” Valentino said. “They seem to really hit for him most years in the right time, so he understands the league and what comes with it. So they ride the ebbs and flows of the season and how it goes and then peak at the right time.”

The situation for Atlanta United to make the playoffs

An Atlanta United win at Orlando AND a Montreal loss versus New York City FC AND a D.C. United loss versus Charlotte OR
An Atlanta United win at Orlando AND a Montreal loss versus New York City AND a Philadelphia loss/draw versus Cincinnati OR
An Atlanta United win at Orlando City SC AND a Montreal loss versus New York City FC AND an Atlanta United advantage in tiebreakers over Philadelphia OR
An Atlanta United win at Orlando City SC AND a D.C. United loss versus Charlotte AND a Philadelphia loss/draw versus Cincinnati OR
An Atlanta United win at Orlando AND a D.C. United loss versus Charlotte AND an Atlanta United advantage in tiebreakers over Philadelphia

First tiebreaker is wins and second tiebreaker is goal differential.

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Atlanta United’s 2024 schedule

Feb. 24 Columbus 1, Atlanta United 0

March 9 Atlanta United 4, New England 1

March 17 Atlanta United 2, Orlando 0

March 23 Toronto 2, Atlanta United 0

March 31 Atlanta United 3, Chicago 0

April 6 Atlanta United 1, NYCFC 1

April 14 Atlanta United 2, Philadelphia 2

April 20 Cincinnati 2, Atlanta United 1

April 27 Atlanta United 1, Chicago 1

May 4 Minnesota 2, Atlanta United 1

May 7 Atlanta United 3, Charlotte Independence 0 in U.S. Open Cup