Atlanta United vs. Nashville soccer game preview

A by-the-numbers look at Atlanta United’s (2-5-3) match against Nashville (5-4-1), scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Saturday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta United is 2-2-2 at home. Nashville is 1-3-0 on the road. Most stats provided by fbref.com

Goals

Atlanta United has 11 goals (two were own goals), led by Emmanuel Latte Lath’s five. San Jose and Vancouver lead MLS with 20.

Nashville has 19 goals, led by Sam Surridge’s six. Montreal is tied for last (four).

What does it mean? Atlanta United has been shut out five times in 10 matches.

Expected goals

Atlanta United has 13.5 expected goals. San Jose leads (23.0).

Nashville has 20.0 expected goals. Toronto is last (7.7).

What does it mean? Atlanta United has not scored in 343 minutes. It had a stretch earlier this season when it didn’t score for 275 minutes. It has played 900 minutes, not counting stoppage time additions, this season.

Goals allowed

Atlanta United has allowed 19 goals. Vancouver and New England are tied for first (seven).

Nashville has allowed 13 goals. D.C. United ranks last (22).

What does it mean? Atlanta United’s season-long pattern of making individual mistakes cost them three goals in last week’s loss at Orlando. It has lost consecutive matches by at least three goals for the first time.

Expected goals allowed

Atlanta United has 14.9 expected goals allowed. Vancouver leads (9.0).

Nashville has 12.4 expected goals allowed. San Jose is last (19.9).

What does it mean? Atlanta United’s goal difference is minus-8. It should be minus-1, according to its expected goals minus expected goals allowed.

Key passes

Atlanta United has 103 key passes, seventh most in the league. San Jose leads (123).

Nashville has 109 key passes, fifth most in the league. Toronto is last (56).

What does it mean? Atlanta United’s ratio of key passes to goals continues to decrease, dropping to 11:1 (only includes goals scored and doesn’t include the own goals). It was 6:1 a few weeks ago.

Shots

Atlanta United has 129 shots. San Jose leads (171).

Nashville has 147 shots. Toronto is last (78).

What does it mean? Atlanta United is scoring on one of every 14.3 shots, down from last week’s one from every 13.7 shots. Nashville is scoring on one of every 7.7 shots. Atlanta United’s non-penalty expected goals minus goals scored is minus-4.7, the fifth highest in the league. Nashville‘s is plus-0.6. Portland leads (4.8) and Montreal ranks last (minus-6.3).

Shots on goal

Atlanta United has 39 shots on goal.

Nashville has 62 shots on goal, most in MLS. Houston is last (25).

What does it mean? Atlanta United’s percentage of shots on goal from shots (30%) has decreased by 11% from five matches ago before it played Cincinnati. Nashville is putting 42% of its shots on goal.

Part of its inefficiency is Atlanta United is converting 0.7 of its 2.3 Big Chances per Game, according to sofascore.com. Nashville is averaging 3.7 Big Chances per Game, and converting 1.2.

Shots allowed and shots on goal allowed

Atlanta United has allowed 109 shots, 48 on goal. Vancouver leads in shots allowed (83) and shots on goal allowed (23).

Nashville has allowed 105 shots, 41 on goal. Charlotte has allowed the most shots (146), and San Jose leads in shots on goal allowed (56).

What does it mean? Atlanta United’s defense is second to last in the league in percentage of shots on target (44%), a reflection of the individual mistakes leading to goals. Nashville‘s is 39%.

Progressive passes

Atlanta United has 449 progressive passes, seventh most in MLS. Vancouver leads (507).

Nashville has 359 progressive passes. New England is last (289).

What does it mean? A progressive pass is one that moves the ball at least 10 yards closer to the opponent’s goal, or a completed pass into the penalty box. Atlanta United is moving the ball forward but it’s not getting into dangerous areas.

Crosses and crosses into penalty area

Atlanta United has 198 crosses, including 25 crosses into the 18-yard box. Philadelphia leads in crosses (233) and is tied with Vancouver for the lead in crosses into the 18-yard box (30).

Nashville has 150 crosses, with 18 crosses into the penalty area. Inter Miami is last in crosses (95) and L.A. Galaxy is last (7) in crosses into the 18-yard box.

What does it mean? Atlanta United is putting a lot of balls into the 18-yard box with very little reward.

Errors

Atlanta United has made 11 errors, which are mistakes that lead to an opponent’s shot. It is tied for second most. Four teams are tied for the fewest mistakes (1).

Nashville has made three errors. Chicago leads (12).

What does it mean? It’s surprising that Atlanta United hasn’t been credited with more errors.

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