Atlanta United playoff scenarios are more clear

Because of its season-long malaise, it seems unlikely that Atlanta United will make the MLS playoffs after suffering yet another a self-inflicted loss, this time 2-1 to Montreal on Wednesday.

Still, here’s the situation and what would need to happen among the teams contending to finish among the nine that will make the playoffs:

Atlanta United is in 12th place with 34 points. It has two matches remaining. It can finish with no more than 40 points, which seems improbable considering the team has only one two-match win streak this season. Atlanta United trails eighth-place Montreal by six points, ninth-place Toronto by three points, 10th-place Philadelphia by three points and 11th-place D.C. United by three points.

To finish as high as eighth, Atlanta United must win both of its remaining matches against the Red Bulls and at Orlando, and Montreal, Philadelphia and D.C. United lose each of their last two and Toronto loses its finale. None of them play each other. Atlanta United would be tied on points with Montreal, but would win the second tiebreaker (goal difference).

Atlanta United can finish in ninth if it earns four points from its last two matches and Toronto, Philadelphia and D.C. United loses their remaining matches and 13th-place Nashville doesn’t win both of its last two matches.

Atlanta United can finish ninth on a tiebreaker if it earns four points from its last two matches and Toronto and Philadelphia lose their remaining matches, D.C. United earns no more than one point from its remaining matches, and Nashville fails to win one of its remaining two matches. Atlanta United and D.C. United would be tied on the first tiebreaker (win total) but the Five Stripes would win the second tiebreaker (goal difference).

As for elimination, Atlanta United would be out:

If it loses either of its remaining matches.

Or of Montreal AND Toronto win one of their remaining matches.

Or if Montreal draws one of its remaining matches AND Toronto wins its finale against Miami.

Or if Philadelphia AND D.C. United earn at least four points each from their last two matches.

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Atlanta United’s 2024 schedule

Feb. 24 Columbus 1, Atlanta United 0

March 9 Atlanta United 4, New England 1

March 17 Atlanta United 2, Orlando 0

March 23 Toronto 2, Atlanta United 0

March 31 Atlanta United 3, Chicago 0

April 6 Atlanta United 1, NYCFC 1

April 14 Atlanta United 2, Philadelphia 2

April 20 Cincinnati 2, Atlanta United 1

April 27 Atlanta United 1, Chicago 1

May 4 Minnesota 2, Atlanta United 1

May 7 Atlanta United 3, Charlotte Independence 0 in U.S. Open Cup