FLOWERY BRANCH — The Vikings were an analytic anomaly as they went 11-0 in one-score games last season.
The Vikings finished 13-4, won the NFC North, but were upset by the New York Giants in the wild-card round of the playoffs. The Vikings (4-4) may have an upper hand when they face the Falcons (4-4) at 1 p.m. Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium if it’s a close game. Their success in one-score games could be the X-factor.
The Vikings will be without the three key players who helped them post that mark in one-score games. Running back Dalvin Cook was traded, wide receiver Justin Jefferson (hamstring) and quarterback Kirk Cousins (Achilles) are on injured reserve.
Last season, the Falcons were 5-8 in one-score games.
The Vikings are 3-4 in one-score games this season, while the Falcons are 3-2.
“(The Vikings) play sound football,” Falcons coach Arthur Smith said. “They have a talented football team. They’re going to play (quarterback) Jaren (Hall). (Quarterback) Josh Dobbs (is a) smart player. They’ve got good skill players.”
This will be the Vikings’ first game without Cousins. Hall, who played at Brigham Young, was a fifth-round pick. They recently traded for Dobbs, who played at Alpharetta High and Tennessee.
The Vikings are good in one-score games because they play solid football.
“That doesn’t really change week-to-week, whether Kirk Cousins (is) playing,” Smith said. “It’s the same thing they did in Green Bay. Started that game, they got a good mix. They’ve got a good line. They have two good backs in (Alexander) Mattison and (Cam) Akers. Obviously, they can move the football, and they have an aggressive defense.”
The Falcons’ defense, which will be without injured two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, gave up touchdowns of 47, 61 and 33 yards against the Titans. Safety Jessie Bates III was not happy with the explosive plays.
“I think last week we got in the mindset of we don’t know what we are going to see,” Bates said. “We were kind of chasing ghosts. But at the end of the day, it’s all about us and what we do.”
The Falcons have been biting on play-action fakes, and A.J. Terrell was in coverage for DeAndre Hopkins’ 47-yard touchdown and when Mike Evans scored on a 40-yard touchdown catch in the previous game.
“Some of those plays have been repetitive,” Bates said. “It’s not the first time that we’ve seen them. Maybe a different kind of way to set it up. There’s been an emphasis on the explosive plays that we’ve given up last week. It hasn’t been who we are as a defense, but it popped up. Unfortunately, this league is a copycat league, and we’ll see those plays again.”
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