FLOWERY BRANCH -- With two games to go, first-year coach Arthur Smith has the Falcons in position for a winning record and a possible playoff berth for the first time since 2017.
A few prognosticators forecasted a winning season, and the chances of making the postseason are at 2%.
The Falcons (7-8) will need to upset the heavily favored (14.5 points) Buffalo Bills (9-6) at 1 p.m. Sunday at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York.
To make the playoffs, the Falcons also would need to defeat the Saints to finish 9-8 and get a combination of losses from San Francisco, Philadelphia and Minnesota to make the postseason.
However things turn out, Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot believe they are building the foundation for a Falcons turnaround. Both hope they are in the early stages of a turnaround like the Bills have made.
“(General manager) Brandon (Beane) and myself wanted to come in and try and establish a culture,” said Bills coach Sean McDermott, who’s in his fifth season. “Terry and Kim Pegula, our ownership group, gave us the green light to do that.”
The first-year is key in most turnarounds.
“Making sure that we got the people part of the equation as close to where we wanted it to be as possible during that first year,” McDermott said. “Those aren’t easy decisions, and those are hard situations because people’s livelihoods are at stake and on the line there. That was a big point of emphasis for us in that first season.”
Even if the Falcons finish 7-10, they believe they have started to change the culture. Smith has pointed to the team’s 7-2 record in one-score games. But the scoring differential, minus-122, which ranks 31st of 32 teams, will need to be corrected.
“We understand where we’re trying to go, short-term and long-term,” Smith said. “We’ll continue to find the right guys here, the right culture. I would argue that we’re beginning to learn how to win. Hasn’t been perfect, and we know there’s a lot of work to do, and we’ll continue to do it.”
The Falcons know they might be out-manned against the Bills, but playing a meaningful game in January could be a strong building block for the future.
“It’s a big game for us,” Smith said.
If the Falcons somehow beat the odds and make the playoffs, Smith would join Jim Mora and Mike Smith as first-year coaches to guide the Falcons to the playoffs.
In 2004, Mora inherited Dan Reeves’ fully stocked team and quarterback Michael Vick, who was in his fourth season. They finished 11-5 and reached the NFC title game against the Eagles.
Mike Smith had more of a mess to clean up, coming in after Vick’s federal dogfighting trial and Bobby Petrino’s departure. Matt Ryan was a rookie, Michael Turner was signed in free agency and the defense, led by John Abraham’s 16.5 sacks, rookie linebacker Curtis Lofton and safety Lawyer Milloy, was more than respectable.
The Falcons went 11-5 and picked up a wild-card berth. They lost to Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals in the wild-card round of the playoffs.
Credit: Curtis Compton
Credit: Curtis Compton
In Falcons history, eight other coaches (Marion Campbell, twice) had losing records in their first season. Leeman Bennett went 7-7 in his first season in 1977. He would take the franchise to the playoffs for the first time in 1978.
In 1997, Reeves’ first team won six of their final eight games and carried that momentum into the 1998 season to go all the way to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
In 2015, Dan Quinn went 8-8 in his first season after a 6-2 start. He would take the team to its second Super Bowl the following season.
The current situation is closer to a full rebuild than what Mora and Mike Smith inherited.
“The circumstances were completely different,” Smith said. “I think Jim Mora and Mike Smith are terrific football coaches, but that’s why I always say comparisons are tough, completely different landscape, to those guys’ first years with the teams to what our circumstances were in 2021.”
The Falcons traded their top offensive weapon in Julio Jones, didn’t inherit a pass-rusher of Abraham’s ilk, have a weak offensive line, had to completely overhaul the secondary and didn’t have any salary-cap space to sign a big-time running back such as Turner.
“It would be awesome if we could do that, but it won’t matter,” Smith said. “Nothing matters unless we find a way to go beat the Buffalo Bills up in Buffalo.”
Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett went to the Super Bowl as a rookie. The Falcons went back to the playoffs in his second season before falling on hard times in 2018, 2019 and 2020.
“At the end of the day, I’m playing meaningful football in the end of December going into the January,” Jarrett said. “It’s been years. So, I’m doing what I’ve got to do to help put the team in the best position to get to this postseason.”
Former Bills tight end Lee Smith came to the Falcons in a trade. He believes the Falcons are following the same path the Bills took in 2017 under McDermott.
“This is a football team that obviously Arthur and Terry came in here and took over,” Smith said. “We’re sure not anywhere near where we want to be long-term. I mean as an Atlanta Falcon, but there’s just something about this team, about the grit, about the leadership from Art, and the way that we’re able to win these close games.”
The veterans put stock in the point-differential.
“I saw the other day our point-differential is just horrific,” Smith said. “We’ve won seven games. That’s a testament to these men and kind of the relentless grit and the team that Art is building and the culture here.”
No one is picking the Falcons to beat the Bills, but the Bills did lose to Jacksonville on Nov. 7. The Falcons beat Jacksonville.
“This is a great opportunity for the Falcons, another little steppingstone for this team and then this franchise to get used to playing in games that matter again at this time of year,” Smith said. “I mean, it’s January. We’re playing a game for our playoff fate in January with a first-year staff. That’s pretty strong business.
“I don’t know how many other first-year staffs in this league that are playing in January, I’m going to guess zero (the Eagles are).”
In a way, the Falcons believe they’ve already won.
“So, it’s pretty good stuff, man,” Smith said. “t’s a testament to Arthur, our badass veteran quarterback (Matt Ryan) and this group of men, which is cool.”
Jarrett hopes this season is the start of a new winning era.
“We have to continue to build on what we have,” Jarrett said. " All of the success may not come in the form of what you may think it looks like. I’m going to take it how it comes and keep grinding.”
Credit: BRANT SANDERLIN / AJC
Credit: BRANT SANDERLIN / AJC
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