With the fourth overall pick in the NFL draft, the Falcons will have a chance to take their quarterback of the future, a tight end or an offensive tackle, or they can trade back and amass draft picks.
Cartersville’s Trevor Lawrence, a former Clemson standout, is expected to be selected No. 1 overall in the draft, which will be held Thursday through Saturday in Cleveland.
“Let me tell you what Trevor Lawrence is in my opinion,” said former NFL executive Gil Brandt, a Pro Football Hall of Famer. “Trevor is (John) Elway as athlete and has (Peyton) Manning’s accuracy. I think you’re getting the best of both of them. I don’t see (any) reason why he shouldn’t be a good quarterback.”
BYU’s Zach Wilson and Alabama’s Mac Jones are projected to go second to the New York Jets and third to San Francisco 49ers, respectively.
Then the Falcons will be on the clock.
“This is like a Trey Lance pep rally, but if Mac Jones goes three, and I’m the Falcons, personally, I would take Trey Lance,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said Wednesday. “I would be OK if they took the (Florida) tight end (Kyle Pitts).”
Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot said he’ll take the best player available in the draft.
“If you take Pitts, he’s the second-best player in the draft,” Jeremiah said. “He’ll by dynamic for the next couple of years with Matt Ryan, you’ll have a lot of success.”
But the Falcons have several other holes on offense and defense.
“I don’t know that that roster is ready to win a Super Bowl right now, but to me if I’m looking at what’s the long term, what’s the best decision,” Jeremiah said. “For my money, it would be to take Trey Lance or Justin Fields and have that next guy.
“He might not get on the field much for two years with Matt Ryan there, and I’m sure Matt would be frustrated about bringing in another quarterback.”
Ryan, who owns all of the franchise’s passing records and is the only Falcon to win the NFL MVP award, has a key supporter in the building.
“I do here from a lot of folks that (coach) Arthur Smith is, rightfully so, very high on Matt Ryan for the next few years,” Jeremiah said. “If they make the decision for next year and the year after, you take Pitts.”
But what about the long-term future of the team?
“If you are making the decision for the future of the franchise, which is extends beyond a decade, for me, the smart thing to do would be to get that next quarterback, have him in the pipeline and ready to go,” Jeremiah said.
Kansas City made a similar move in 2017 when they traded up to draft Patrick Mahomes 10th overall. The Chiefs felt Mahomes was a future star, but he worked on his craft behind Alex Smith.
When Mahomes was ready to play at an NFL level, the Chiefs traded Alex Smith and Mahomes has taken them to three consecutive AFC Championship games and back-to-back Super Bowl appearances.
There is a third option.
“Everybody outside of the top 10 is curious where Pitts is going to go,” Jeremiah said. “Usually, that means they’d be interested in moving up for him if he they did have an opportunity. I’m sure they’ll have opportunities to get out of there if they’d like.”
Fields, who started his career at Georgia before transferring to Ohio State, would be a popular pick by the Falcons. He also played at Harrison High.
“I think Justin Fields is going to be an excellent quarterback,” Brandt said. “I don’t know why he’s all over the board. Some people think he’s the second or third player picked. Some people think he’s the 10th player picked. I think he’ll surprise everybody.”
There is some intrigue at the No. 3 spot.
“I really think that Fields is the quarterback that San Francisco wants to take with that third overall pick,” Brandt said.
SiriusXM NFL Radio analyst Mark Dominik, Tampa Bay’s former general manager, believes that San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch will take Jones over Fields and Lance.
“Shanahan likes you to move around in the pocket and throw on the fly,” Dominik said. “The No. 1 thing that Shanahan loves is the fact that guys can process multiple reads, get out in space and be able to (pass) the ball.
“Giving those crossing patterns, play actions and all those kind of shots, when you take that deep ball shot, it’s got to be a good ball.”
Jones is more accurate throwing deep passes than Lance and Fields. The accuracy issue was why Josh Allen slipped to the seventh pick in the 2018 draft. He was selected behind Baker Mayfield, who went No. 1 overall, and Sam Darnold, who went third overall to the Jets.
“When I look at all of them, they all have traits,” Dominik said. “I go back to Mac Jones and his accuracy. I think he’s more accurate than both of those other quarterbacks. I think that’s a big part of why he’s kind of the leader in the clubhouse. I think Trey Lance is the least accurate of those three.”
Allen has developed into an accurate passer and was in the AFC Championship game last season. Darnold recently was traded to the Panthers.
“But Josh Allen has proven to a lot of people that maybe accuracy can be developed a little bit more than we realize,” Dominik said. “I think for each one of them, Fields certainly brings that element of run, that’s very prevalent right now in the National Football League in a good way.
“I think that Trey Lance brings that size, that girth, where you can extend a play with a Ben Roethlisberger-body. So, if you get hit, you can stay up and continue the play.”
If the Falcons don’t draft a quarterback in the first round, they could double back and select Wake Forest’s Jamie Newman in the middle rounds.
“Newman is somebody that will be there in the fifth or sixth round,” Brandt said. “I don’t even have him in my top 100, to be honest with you.”
Dominik has Newman rated higher than Brandt.
“You liked the fact that his completion percentage continued to grow,” Dominik said. “His touchdowns grew. He had a 2 to 1-plus touchdown-to-interception ratio. Those are all good numbers you can look at.”
Newman has good size (6-foot-3 and 234 pounds) and is athletic.
“He might go a little bit higher because you’re feeling like he’s got a chance,” Dominik said. “I think maybe fourth or fifth round is where he goes. He’s going to get a chance to develop.”
If the Falcons trade back, they could address their pass-rushing weakness.
Penn State’s Jayson Oweh is an intriguing prospect. He didn’t have any sacks last season, but he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.39 seconds.
“He’s a guy who could become a very strong rusher,” Brandt said.
Oweh was compared with Minnesota’s Danielle Hunter, who didn’t have much production at LSU. Hunter, who’s played five NFL seasons, has 54.5 sacks.
“He came here from Nigeria, and he’s only played football for three years,” Brandt said of Oweh. “I think there is something there.”
The Falcons also could elect to fortify their offensive line by drafting Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell. Ryan has been sacked 131 times over the past three seasons, and the rushing attack has ranked 27th in 2020, 30th in 2019 and 27th in 2018.
AJC’S POSITION-BY-POSITION SERIES
QUARTERBACKS: How far will Justin Fields drop in draft? | Top 10 QBs
RUNNING BACKS: Plenty of prospects to pick from | Top 10 RBs
WIDE RECEIVERS: Draft deep with talent | Top 10 WRs
TIGHT ENDS: Ability to create mismatches is key | Top 10 TEs
OFFENSIVE TACKLES: A ‘nasty’ bunch | Top 10 OTs
OFFENSIVE GUARDS/CENTERS: The men in the middle | Top 10 C/OGs
END RUSHERS: Pass on this draft stock | Top 10 DEs
DEFENSIVE TACKLES: One star among lackluster block | Top 10 DTs
LINEBACKERS: Deep class for position | Top 10 LBs
CORNERBACKS: Plethora of options for first two rounds | Top 10 CBs
SAFETIES: Falcons likely will add position player | Top 10 Safeties
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