Why Reynaldo Lopez still could make the Braves’ starting rotation

When the Braves acquired Sale, it seemed the move would push Lopez to the bullpen. Not the case – at least not yet.

Braves pitchers and catchers report to spring training Wednesday. The Braves have few question marks on their loaded roster, but one topic: Who will be their fifth starter?

Lopez, who started games earlier in his career, has been one of the better relievers in baseball since then. But when the Braves signed him to a three-year deal worth $30 million in November, they did so believing he might fit best as a starter, for a couple of reasons.

A year ago, Fried, Strider, Morton and Bryce Elder combined for a 3.47 ERA over 107 starts.

Well, there are 162 games in a season.

Twelve pitchers – three of them relievers who opened one game apiece – combined to start the other 55 games. They posted a … 5.52 ERA. And remember: Elder, who was not one of those 12 guys, had a 5.11 ERA over 13 second-half starts.

Thus, the Braves figured that if they were to start Lopez, he wouldn’t have a high bar to clear. They thought he could be an improvement over the many depth starters they deployed last season.

Lopez has a 4.73 ERA over 97 starts in his career – better than the combined ERA of the group who filled in to round out the Braves’ rotation last season. He eclipsed 180 innings in 2018 and 2019 and has showcased impressive durability over his career. And Lopez has improved a lot as a pitcher since his days as a full-time starter.

The Braves saw this firsthand last season. In two appearances against the Braves, Lopez threw 2-2/3 scoreless innings. He struck out five batters and allowed one hit.

“I thought he absolutely took a step last year when we faced him,” said Matt Olson, who faced Lopez in their American League days. “He threw really well against us, and obviously we know he can run it up to 100.”

At the time Olson said this, Sean Murphy, his former teammate in Oakland, was listening in the back of the room. Soon, he sat at the table and took questions.

“Guys were coming back to the dugout like, ‘Man, he looks good,’” Murphy recalled of the Braves facing Lopez last season.

At this moment, the Braves have seven relievers who appear ticketed for bullpen roles, barring injury: Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Pierce Johnson, Joe Jiménez, Tyler Matzek, Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer. If Lopez ends up in the bullpen, Lee will be the only reliever with minor-league options, which would limit the Braves’ flexibility.

Plus, who would be the length guy out of the bullpen? The Braves have used guys like Jackson Stephens (who will be in camp again) and Michael Tonkin (who is a Met now) to fill the mop-up role over the past two seasons. They have pitchers who can throw multiple innings – and they could always make a move after a game if they needed more length – but with Lopez in the bullpen, the Braves wouldn’t have a traditional long guy.

Lopez unquestionably would boost the Braves’ bullpen. But the regular season lasts six months, and the Braves must cover it all. Lopez might be more valuable as a starting pitcher if the Braves’ other late-inning arms – Iglesias, Minter, Johnson and Jiménez – perform up to expectations.

But the Braves aren’t going to hand the job to Lopez. If he’s not the best guy, he won’t get the role. Elder is competing for the job, as is AJ Smith-Shawver. And if Huascar Ynoa blows away everyone, he could win the gig.

Still, minor-league options are a factor in roster decisions. Lopez cannot be optioned, and the Braves are paying him an average annual value of $10 million over the length of his contract. But Lopez must earn the job, as the Braves wouldn’t take a materially worse option if a better one exists.

We also must give this disclaimer: Injuries and poor performance can happen. You never wish for either, of course, but roster matters often work themselves out over the course of the season.

Plus, spring training often is defined by the surprises it brings. A year ago, we discussed the battle between Michael Soroka, Ian Anderson and Elder … only for Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd to outlast all of them and make starts in the first turn through the rotation.

So, this topic and story may become a moot point in a month.

But for now, the Braves plan to stretch out Lopez and give him a chance to become their fifth starter. From the standpoint of roster construction, the Braves might gain the most flexibility if Lopez starts.

Isn’t it fun to be discussing this stuff again?

Welcome to the 2024 season.