Ask yourself this question: What must go right for the Braves to win the National League? It’s a lengthy list, yet it’s still shorter than any other team east of Southern California.
The deck is stacked in the Braves’ favor. They have one of the league’s best rosters. They have the star power. They have the experience. They have the right mix of veterans and blossoming youth. Whatever is on your checklist for a contender, the Braves should mark nearly every box.
But every championship run requires good breaks. The most important one: The Braves need to stay healthy. That’s the wild card with every roster in every sport. The Braves overcame misfortune on that end last season, when their rotation was burned to the ground and players such as Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies played injured. Perhaps the baseball gods are kinder this time around.
As for the roster itself …
Offense:
There are few questions with the top of the lineup, as long as that group is healthy. Acuna, Albies, Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna make for an outstanding top four. Catcher Travis d’Arnaud is a good 5-hitter if he produces anywhere similarly to 2020. The Braves will need the rest of their regulars to carry their weight.
Curtis Compton / Curtis.Compton@
Curtis Compton / Curtis.Compton@
Third baseman Austin Riley showed improved plate discipline last season. Can he keep that going? Riley taking a step forward would be massive for the offense. If Dansby Swanson stays healthy, the Braves have a good idea of what they’ll get from their shortstop. It still feels like Swanson could offer more offensively, and if he unlocks that, it’d only lengthen the team’s lineup.
Rookie Cristian Pache is an unknown. The Braves will have patience if he struggles early, but Pache providing average offensive production would be a welcomed development. The team’s lineup won’t look as potent without the designated hitter, but they can’t afford the Pache-pitcher spots at the bottom of the order to be complete wastes. Pache’s offensive development will be a major subplot to follow.
Rotation:
It can’t get worse than last season, can it? The Braves’ rotation was a disaster due to underperformance and injury. This time, it’s shaping up much better, but there’s still a risk element. Newcomer Drew Smyly has his own injury history. Charlie Morton is 37 years old and isn’t on the TB12 plan. Ian Anderson, as brilliant as he was last season, has only excelled in a small sample. Mike Soroka is returning from a torn Achilles. Max Fried will need to replicate last season’s success, when he had a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts.
Curtis Compton / Curtis.Compton@
Curtis Compton / Curtis.Compton@
The Braves have the depth to withstand an injury or two. Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson and Huascar Ynoa would be certainties in some other rotations. That’s dandy for the regular season, but the Braves cannot afford to lose multiple starters ahead of the postseason (assuming they’re positioned for it). Wilson outdueling Clayton Kershaw and A.J. Minter dominating in his first start since his college days can’t be counted on. The Braves’ rotation could be very, very good, but it could also disappoint. Staying healthy is paramount.
Bullpen:
The Braves need Will Smith to bounce back from his underwhelming debut season. They feel like that will be the case now that he’s past a hectic year in which he started late due to having COVID-19. The Braves need lefties A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek to prove their 2020 seasons weren’t flukes. Both will be important in high-leverage spots. Those three, along with command artist Chris Martin, are their best relievers.
Credit: Atlanta Braves
But the Braves won’t get where they want to be with only four good relievers. They’ll need others to step up, just as Matzek and Minter did a year ago. When the Braves lost Mark Melancon, Shane Greene and Darren O’Day, they expressed confidence in their internal replacements. More than one of those individuals will need to perform consistently. Jacob Webb is a wild card here. He’s pitched well when healthy, and if he finds that success over a full season, that’d be an enormous development. The Braves will need solid stretches from some of their fringe guys like Luke Jackson and Grant Dayton. It’s important that at least one reliever unexpectedly emerges into a reliable weapon.
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