CINCINNATI — The 2024 Braves are nothing if not confusing. You can use the injuries to explain certain elements of this team, but others are inexplicable.
Such is the case with a double-edged trend: The Braves are better against good teams than they are against mediocre or bad teams. Go figure that one out.
“I don’t know,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said when asked how he views this. “We’ve had some really big series against good clubs that we’ve done well in. But you know what, you gotta kind of put that aside once that next series rolls around. I don’t know if it’s good or bad, quite honestly.”
The Braves entered Tuesday’s series in Cincinnati with a 48-39 record against teams that are .500 or better. And before they lost the opener to the Reds, they were 33-30 against below-.500 clubs.
This will be a frustrating topic that will haunt fans if the team doesn’t make the postseason. And that’s a real possibility: The Braves on Tuesday fell two games behind the Mets and Diamondbacks for the National League’s third and final wild-card spot.
Tuesday’s loss gave us the same question: Why is this team worse against lesser competition?
“There’s really not an explanation,” Matt Olson said before the loss. “It’s not like preparation or how you go about the game or anything changes. I chalk that up more to just, it’s baseball.”
It might just be one of baseball’s wild and wacky trends. It’s also difficult for fans to dismiss it when it’s one of the reasons the Braves are fighting for their postseason lives.
Here’s some context about the Braves’ records against above-.500 teams and below-.500 teams:
- The Braves went into Tuesday with a .552 winning percentage against teams at .500 or better. Since the introduction of the wild card in 1995, there have been only seven teams to miss the postseason with a better winning percentage than that against clubs who were .500 or better. The most recent: The 2021 Mariners, who went 44-34 against such clubs but missed the playoffs. So, this bodes well for the Braves’ chances – not many teams have performed as well against good teams and not earned an October berth.
- The Braves entered Tuesday with a .524 winning percentage against teams with a record below .500. Since 1995, only five teams have made the postseason with a winning percentage below .524 against losing teams. The most recent: The 2016 Rangers, who also are the only team to make the playoffs with a losing record against losing opponents. This means the Braves should take care of business for the rest of this trip against the Reds and Marlins – the final two losing teams they’ll play this season – to give themselves the best historical odds to make the postseason.
- Remember, the third wild-card berth didn’t exist until 2022. We must factor in this aspect as one that improves the Braves’ postseason odds this year. And perhaps there’ll be other clubs included in the categories above in the coming years because there’s another spot.
The infuriating part for Braves fans: This team’s season has included missed opportunity after missed opportunity after missed opportunity.
Losing two of three to the White Sox – who are one of the historically awful teams in the sport, with a 36-116 record entering Wednesday. Splitting the six games against the Rockies (59-93). Losing eight of the 13 games against the Nationals (68-83). Splitting the six games with the Pirates (71-80). Losing the final two contests of a four-game set against the Marlins (56-95) to settle for a split at home. Losing four of six to the Cardinals (who are actually one game above .500 as of this writing, but are still mediocre). On and on and on.
And on Tuesday, the Braves fell to 0-4 against the below-.500 Reds to seal a season series loss to them, too.
“I mean, it’s baseball,” Michael Harris II said. “All these players are professionals for a reason. You can lose, you can win on any given night. The other team definitely still plays a part in games we lose, and they did what they needed to do (Tuesday).”
This is true. And perhaps we should note that the Braves aren’t the usual juggernaut. Injuries have slowed them. Maybe they aren’t much better than some of the mediocre teams they’ve played. But with their pitching and top of the lineup, they still have more talent than many teams.
Many of the great teams aren’t winning most of their games against other good teams. They’re feasting on the lowly clubs on the schedule. But the Braves have struggled with teams you’d expect them to beat, and have shown up against talented clubs.
They’ve proved they can play with anybody. Perhaps their record against good teams is comforting?
“I mean, sure,” Olson said. “You want to beat teams that are struggling at all. But yeah, it feels like we’ve played some solid teams, especially as of late, and been in a lot of ballgames.”
The perfect microcosm of the season: The Braves handled the Dodgers in the first two games of the series, then lost the next two in frustrating ways. And in Cincinnati, they appear as if they’ve turned the page, only to crumble.
Does it feel like those three games are missed opportunities?
“No, not necessarily,” Harris said after Tuesday’s loss. “I feel like the other team still has a factor in it and putting good swings on the ball and doing what they need to. It’s not necessarily just us losing the game completely, but the other team’s doing their job as well.”
About the Author
