Here are Braves’ potential postseason scenarios as September begins

Here are the scenarios for the Braves this October in accordance with the current standings (this could obviously change – a team like the Mets, Cubs or Giants could get hot and steal a spot – but this is operating on the likeliest outcomes):

Sixth seed: The Braves currently hold the third and final wild card, which has produced the two NL pennant winners since the postseason expanded a couple of years ago (Phillies in 2022, Diamondbacks in 2023). As the Diamondbacks and Padres continue winning, and the Phillies pulling away in the division, this increasingly feels like the Braves’ destiny if they make the postseason.

If the Braves are the No. 6 seed, they’ll face the worst division winner, record-wise, in a best-of-three. The division winner will host. Presently, that would be the Brewers (it also could be the Phillies or Dodgers). So in this case, the 6-seed Braves would face the 3-seed Brewers in a best-of-three in Milwaukee. The winner would advance to face the No. 2 seed, which is currently the Phillies, in the best-of-five NL Division Series.

The No. 6 seed has been favorable in a two-year sample. It appears to again be a preferred path if the standings hold. The Braves likely would prefer facing Milwaukee, which has been injured and mostly has underwhelmed in the postseason, than the red-hot Diamondbacks or Padres in a 4-5 seed matchup.

Fifth seed: If the Braves work their way into the fifth spot, they’ll play the top wild card – currently Arizona – on the road in a best-of-three. Facing the Padres, currently seeded fifth, also would be a strong possibility here. The winner would advance to play the No. 1 seed in the NLDS, which as of Monday is the Dodgers. This is a more challenging draw on paper than the lowest seed.

Fourth seed: Like the fifth seed, the fourth seed will force the Braves on to a difficult road. But at least they would host the No. 5 seed – likely Los Angeles, Arizona or San Diego, unless New York surges – before possibly traveling to oppose the No. 1 seed. The benefit of the No. 4 or No. 5 seed could come into play in the NL Championship Series if the No. 6 seed goes on a run, as the Braves would have home-field advantage in a best-of-seven.

NL East champions: There are several variables here if the Braves win the division. If they’re the third-worst division winner record-wise, which would seem likelier than not in this outcome, they’d host the No. 6 seed in a best-of-three at Truist Park. If the Phillies were bumped into a wild card, that could be them, the Diamondbacks, the Padres or the team that played well enough to snag a spot.

If the Braves wound up with one of the top-two records, they’d get a bye in the wild-card round as they have the past two years. Of course, the Phillies have upset them both years following byes, so the off time hasn’t been deemed particularly helpful thus far. Again, this is an extremely long-shot scenario that would require a major Phillies collapse.

Miss the postseason: This is the unlikeliest statistical outcome per FanGraphs, but it’s in play. It would require one of the teams behind the Braves hitting its stride while they stumble. The Mets come to Atlanta during the final homestand, which could be a seismic series if the clubs are still tight in the standings. Despite the injuries, the Braves have maintained a postseason spot, so missing the tournament would be an extremely disappointing scenario. In this case, the team would work on getting healthy and making offseason tweaks before heading to Florida next spring again expecting to win the NL East.

Rest of the way: The Braves begin a six-game homestand Tuesday against a couple of last-place teams in the Rockies and Blue Jays. In their eight remaining series, the Braves will face only three teams with a winning record – the Dodgers, Mets and Royals – all at Truist Park.