The coming nine-game stretch couldn’t set up better for the Braves. They’ll face the Marlins six times and the Pirates three times, a pair of last-place clubs, before the All-Star break.
After taking two of three against the Mets, the Braves are 39-41. If they go 6-3 against the Marlins and Pirates – a realistic proposition, even though the Braves are 2-5 against Miami this season – they’ll enter the break at 45-44, above .500 after failing to cross that threshold to this point. Whatever the record, it likely will fall around .500.
The schedule won’t be so kind the remainder of the month. The Braves start the second half with a homestand against the Rays and Padres, two of baseball’s better teams. Then they embark on a trip to Philadelphia, where they’re 1-5 this season, and Queens for a five-game series against the Mets. They’ll close the month by hosting Milwaukee, which has won nine in a row as it separates from the pack in the National League Central.
All that leads into the July 30 trade deadline, when the Braves will be among the more fascinating teams. There are three possible paths, depending upon how the month unfolds.
The first: The Braves continue hovering around .500 and hold serve, in part because trade costs might not align with their value. They essentially did that last season, acquiring only lefty Tommy Milone, who performed poorly and quickly was phased out.
“We would’ve loved to have added more, we had a lot of discussions, but we ultimately didn’t think there were deals that made sense for us,” general manager Alex Anthopoulos said following the 2020 deadline. “There were a lot of players moved, but we had to decide how good are these players, how much are they an upgrade over what we currently have.”
The second: With a strong July, the Braves have worked their way back firmly into the picture and Anthopoulos decides to get aggressive. That would be a reward for a team that once trailed the Mets by 7-1/2 games. The Braves would push hard for their fourth consecutive division title.
The third: The Braves wilt in July, leaving them looking up at the Mets (and possibly the Nationals) as it continues to feel like this just isn’t their year. In this scenario, it feels likelier that the Braves would hold rather than sell. But more on that shortly.
Any of those routes is conceivable with this group, which has been maddeningly inconsistent since Day 1. The Braves began their season in spurts, losing four, winning four, and continuing their mediocre results into July. If they were in another division, the season might already seem lost. Even a wild-card berth seems far-fetched. But in the ultra-average NL East, they’re 3-1/2 games back despite never owning a winning record.
“Alex never stops trying to make this club better,” manager Brian Snitker said. “He’s done a great job over the last few years, and I have every confidence that if something can be done, he’ll figure out a way to do it.”
Let’s analyze each trade-deadline approach, starting with standing pat. If the Braves continue as they have, there’s a chance the team makes minimal moves at the deadline. They would decide against swapping prospect capital for win-now help while also opting against moving off their own veterans.
It’s been the year from hell -- underperformance, injuries, circumstances out of the team’s control. It’s hard to be the New England Patriots or the San Antonio Spurs of the past. It’s difficult to be the Los Angeles Dodgers, especially without their payroll. Sometimes seasons just don’t go your way. So far, that’s how it’s been for the Braves.
They could decide to ride it out and evaluate changes in the winter. That would lead to outside criticism, but as Anthopoulos showed last year, it won’t bother him if he feels he’s doing what’s best.
But what if the team catches fire? The coming schedule is cupcake soft, and if the Braves use that as a springboard and perform well against the tougher second-half slate this month, suddenly the Braves are contenders again. There’s little chance Anthopoulos would stand still.
“We talk about it a lot, he’ll call with ideas,” Snitker said of Anthopoulos. “That’s one of Alex’s strong points. He doesn’t have to be right, it doesn’t have to be his idea. He asks everybody, which I think all good administrators do and leaders do. They value everybody’s opinion. That’s a great trait to have.”
A side note here: The Braves have catcher Travis d’Arnaud and pitchers Huascar Ynoa and Tucker Davidson set to return down the stretch, but none of them can be considered surefire upgrades because the team can’t know what to expect as they return from lengthy injured-list stints. So consider them luxuries.
Where the team sits in the standings will determine its willingness to add rental players. As it stands now, the Braves probably shouldn’t be renting players for a two-month push. If they get comfortably back above .500, maybe that changes. Ideally, they would add players under contractual control beyond this season. Even if they remain mediocre, there’s logic in doing so, especially if it’s an outfielder.
The final option isn’t much of one but should be addressed. Given the team’s aspirations to contend in 2022 regardless of how this summer plays out, and with the base talent in place, selling just doesn’t seem like a realistic option unless something drastically changes.
It’s likely the NL East will remain a tight race, and it’s hard to see the Braves falling totally out of it in the next four weeks. The three-time reigning division champs won’t be inclined to wave the white flag and send that message to their clubhouse, even if they’re slipping out of the picture. Unless the bottom falls completely out - and as frustrating as the campaign has been, that still seems unlikely - it’s tough to envision them punting during outfielder Ronald Acuna’s potential MVP year and first baseman Freddie Freeman’s contract year.
The payoff wouldn’t be grand, either. For instance, reliever Chris Martin and starter Drew Smyly are free agents this winter. How much would either fetch as a rental? There’s not much upside to the strategy. Selling just doesn’t seem like a feasible avenue.
The next few weeks might not make or break the Braves’ season, but they will decide how Anthopoulos approaches the deadline. And by month’s end, it should be clear whether the Braves have a real chance at claiming another division title, or if their destiny was to have their three-year run snapped by myriad inconveniences.
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