As of Friday morning, the Braves’ lone major-league addition this winter is Jurickson Profar, the outfielder they recently signed to a three-year, $42 million deal. With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training Monday and having their first workout Wednesday, fans have grown anxious about the lack of activity.
This is warranted. What fan wouldn’t want their team to improve? Especially when that club’s championship window is clearly open. The Braves’ core has given them a terrific foundation on which to build. In this way, the offseason is a bummer.
Maybe you are mad. Perhaps you are sad. And maybe, at this point, you have just accepted that the Braves won’t do anything else.
It’s worth noting they could still make a move between now and opening day, and even after opening day. But for now, we know the situation.
Your angst is fair, but here’s a funny paradox with all of this: The Braves probably still have one of the top rosters in baseball — at least on paper. If they’re fully healthy, they should be good enough to make the postseason.
PECOTA, run by the outlet Baseball Prospectus, is a popular projection model for baseball. It stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. In short, it predicts player performance and, thus, team results based on projected depth charts at the time.
The 2025 projections recently dropped. The model predicted the Braves would go 92-70 and win the National League East over the 91-71 Mets. The Braves’ projected win total is the second-best mark in baseball behind the Dodgers’ 104.
PECOTA believes the Braves have an 85.2% chance of making the postseason — the third highest percentage of any team in the sport, behind the Dodgers (99.8%) and Cubs (87.5%).
FanGraphs recently released its 2025 postseason projections. The Braves, the outlet predicts, have a 92.7% chance of making the playoffs — second in the game only to the Dodgers’ 98.1% chance. FanGraphs projects Los Angeles to have a 23.7% chance to win the World Series, while the Braves have a 15.2% chance to do so. No one is even close to the Dodgers and Braves in terms of percentage chance to make the postseason or win the World Series in this model.
Wow.
The computer still thinks highly of the Braves. And it’s important to remember that both can be true:
- The Braves would’ve been smart to add more this offseason.
- They still have a great roster.
With the Braves’ excellent core, it would be terrific to see Liberty Media — which owns the team — go all in on building a massive payroll. The Braves’ scouting, player development and front office as a whole gave them a terrific foundation.
The Dodgers and Mets have spent with reckless abandon. Maybe that wouldn’t be sustainable for the Braves, but it would’ve been nice to see the Braves spend more this winter. And, again, teams can add until opening day and beyond. The Braves have acquired talent at the trade deadline every year under president of baseball operations and general manager Alex Anthopoulos.
Still, it’s reasonable to believe the Braves could be one of the better teams in baseball. Yes, they’ve lost a ton. Max Fried (Yankees). Travis d’Arnaud (Angels). Charlie Morton (Orioles). A.J. Minter (Mets). Joe Jiménez (out for most of 2025 because of knee surgery).
But they also return a lot. Matt Olson. Austin Riley. Michael Harris II. Ozzie Albies. Chris Sale. Raisel Iglesias. And on and on. Plus, they’ll get back Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider shortly after the beginning of the regular season. The Braves will have a lot of talented players on their 26-man roster, even if they could’ve added more to this point.
But this is baseball.
In 2021, the Braves went on a magical and surprising run to win a World Series ring. In 2024, they looked like a World Series contender until the baseball gods wrecked their season over and over and over again.
Now, they’re onto 2025. They still have a terrific team led by manager Brian Snitker. In a matter of days, they’ll all be together again.
Should they add more to this roster? Yes.
Is it still a talented group? Absolutely.
So it begins.
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