MINNEAPOLIS — The Braves are without Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider and A.J. Minter for the rest of the season. They likely will not have Austin Riley for the remainder of the regular season. They are still awaiting the return of Ozzie Albies. They have dealt with injury after injury, which has taken a bite out of their postseason odds.
They still can win the World Series.
Yes, you read that correctly: Despite their unfortunate injury luck, the Braves still have enough to hoist a trophy. Contrary to the opinions of pundits outside Atlanta, the Braves are not cooked.
The main reason is they still possess a World Series-caliber pitching staff.
“It definitely makes playing defense really easy, just because those guys are gonna go out and they’re gonna do their job and they’re gonna throw the rock really well. So, that definitely helps us,” Jarred Kelenic said. “But also, it just gives guys confidence going in each and every night that we just gotta scratch a couple runs across the plate, and they’re gonna keep us in it. So I think for us, it’s just playing behind them and doing everything we can to give them a little bit of support.”
It’s difficult to compare World Series winners of previous seasons and find exact parallels. But there’s this: In recent memory, World Series winners have, for the most part, featured great pitching staffs in the regular season.
Since 2010, only three World Series winners had a team ERA of over 4.00 in the regular season: The 2023 Rangers, the 2019 Nationals and the 2017 Astros. Among those, Texas ranked the lowest in its respective season – 18th of 30 teams. No World Series winner has finished ranked lower in team ERA since 2010.
The Braves’ 3.65 ERA ranked second in baseball. The offense shined over the first two wins in Minnesota, but the pitching has carried this team.
Of course, pitching numbers fluctuate on a yearly basis. The 10th-best ERA one season might be the eighth-ranked ERA in another. And, yes, depth starters and position players are baked into a team’s ERA.
But teams who have won a World Series in the recent past have featured great, or even good, pitching staffs. The simplest way to measure it: ERA.
Yes, this is obvious. Of course the last team standing would need good enough pitching to get there.
The point is this: It should give Braves fans hope during a difficult season.
The 2024 Braves’ pitching staff – especially their rotation – should keep the team in most games. And a lineup with Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson and (eventually) Albies should have enough firepower to take advantage.
“I think just the fact that we’ve kind of stabilized our starting rotation has been a big thing, where we have five guys,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “We protected them early and now they gotta go, and I think that’s gonna be big – because we’re having trouble scoring runs. Last night was obviously something different. It’s going to be about our pitching and especially our starters.”
Here are the team ERAs of every World Series winner – along with where they ranked among all 30 teams in that regular season – since 2010:
- 2023 Rangers: 4.28 ERA (18th)
- 2022 Astros: 2.90 ERA (2nd)
- 2021 Braves: 3.88 ERA (8th)
- 2020 Dodgers: 3.02 ERA (1st)
- 2019 Nationals: 4.27 ERA (13th)
- 2018 Red Sox: 3.75 ERA (8th)
- 2017 Astros: 4.12 ERA (11th)
- 2016 Cubs: 3.15 ERA (1st)
- 2015 Royals: 3.73 ERA (10th)
- 2014 Giants: 3.50 ERA (10th)
- 2013 Red Sox: 3.79 ERA (14th)
- 2012 Giants: 3.68 ERA (7th)
- 2011 Cardinals: 3.74 ERA (12th)
- 2010 Giants: 3.36 ERA (1st)
Chris Sale, Max Fried and Reynaldo López give the Braves three postseason weapons. Spencer Schwellenbach, who is having an excellent rookie season, is another. And don’t sleep on Charlie Morton, who still has plenty of postseason experience. Then there’s the Braves bullpen, which entered Tuesday with the second-best ERA in baseball (3.30).
But let’s focus on the starters for a second.
After Spencer Schwellenbach’s start on Tuesday, the Braves’ starters have strung together 16 consecutive starts of three or fewer runs. This is baseball’s longest active streak. It also ties the 2018 rotation, which also put together a stretch of 16 straight such starts.
And this incredible run almost coincides with the Braves locking in five starters and having them pitch on extra rest.
“I think it’s good,” Snitker said on the rotation going on regular rest now. “I’m a believer in the extra rest stuff – especially with the long season. And you want to keep guys healthy because, man, it’s hard to find. It’s hard to find starting pitching. I’ve kind of just noticed that the guys that have been going on regular rest, they’ve been throwing really well. I think they’re prepared to do that right now at this point of the season when we got 30-something games left.”
The Braves have been ravaged by injuries. Still, they’ve kept pushing.
Their pitching has helped them survive – and even thrive.
“Since I’ve been up, it’s always been a next-man-up mentality,” Fried said Monday night. “We have a lot of really talented guys in this clubhouse, and even the guys that have come over midseason are still extremely talented players that are all about winning. And at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter who gets it done. As long as we’re coming out in the win column, everyone in here is happy.”
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