While they aren’t yet focused on it, the first-place Braves have another critical offseason ahead. Their winter workload will be a little lighter after re-signing a pair of important veterans in the past few weeks.
The Braves signed catcher Travis d’Arnaud to a two-year extension in August, retaining their primary backstop as youngsters Shea Langeliers and William Contreras continue developing. On Monday, the team signed starter Charlie Morton to a one-year extension with a team option for 2023, keeping their most consistent pitcher in the rotation for his age-38 season.
This season included months of frustration before the Braves turned things around. Regardless of how the campaign ends, the Braves showed their infrastructure is strong. Despite injuries and seemingly endless inconveniences, they sit atop the National League East on the morning of Sept. 10 by 3-1/2 games, with 23 games to play. Their contention window should remain open in 2022, too.
Keeping d’Arnaud and Morton was crucial - entering the winter without a known quantity at catcher and without their most reliable starter would’ve been suboptimal, especially with the questions - one big one in particular - looming over their offseason.
First baseman Freddie Freeman is the main question. The Braves’ face of the franchise is set to enter free agency for the first time this winter. The player himself has said he wishes an extension was already done, but it hasn’t yet happened. And while fans celebrated d’Arnaud’s and Morton’s deals, their minds almost immediately went to Freeman, a player the franchise can’t afford to lose while pursuing a title.
Freeman isn’t just the reigning NL MVP. He’s been the Braves’ best player for years. He stayed patient and loyal through the dark days, seeing the franchise return to relevance in the past four seasons. He helped the Braves to their first Championship Series appearance in nearly two decades in 2020. He’s the team leader, clubhouse spokesman and the organization’s most beloved figure of the last decade, filling the void left by Chipper Jones’ retirement. He’s the ambassador for the Braves and a highly adored individual in the Atlanta sports landscape right now.
But baseball is a business, as this situation reminds. The consensus is that the Braves and Freeman will strike a deal, largely because it’s difficult for any third party to envision a split. And while an agreement still feels likely - because both sides have insisted they want it - if Freeman reaches free agency, the door is open for an exit. The Red Sox and other mega cash-laden franchises could come calling, possibly making the Braves pay more than they would’ve had they extended Freeman before free agency.
While the Freeman storyline is No. 1, the Braves have other items on their winter checklist. They’ll undergo some bullpen changes. Veterans Chris Martin and Josh Tomlin, both currently on the injured list, are free agents. Jesse Chavez also is a free agent.
The bullpen won’t need an overhaul. Luke Jackson, Tyler Matzek, Richard Rodriguez, Edgar Santana and Will Smith are under team control through at least next season. The Braves could pursue another closer option to pair with Smith, though Rodriguez presents an in-house candidate they haven’t yet used in such capacity. Nonetheless, they’ll need to add to the bullpen, but they won’t be losing key production.
With Morton back, the Braves’ rotation is deep. Max Fried, Ian Anderson, Huascar Ynoa and Touki Toussaint are under team control for multiple seasons beyond 2021. Tucker Davidson, whose forearm injury spoiled a nice start to his career, will be back. The team will hope All-Star Mike Soroka, still only 24, can return from two Achilles tears and eventually rejoin the mix. Kyle Muller will be in the conversation.
Lefty Drew Smyly is slated for free agency. His recent performance – a 6.08 ERA in August – and declining velocity suggests he’s trending downward. The Braves recently bumped Smyly to the bullpen. Their actions show us what they think of Smyly, and given the organization’s pitching depth, a return doesn’t seem likely at this juncture.
The most fascinating element of the team’s offseason beyond Freeman will be with their other position players, including two extension candidates and their handful of potential free-agent outfielders.
Shortstop Dansby Swanson will be arbitration-eligible for the third and final time. The Braves might want to extend him before he enters a possible walk year, but Swanson also could want to wait with the hope of further increasing his value with a strong 2022 campaign. An extension could make sense for both parties, assuming Swanson wants to stay with his hometown team.
Third baseman Austin Riley will be arbitration-eligible for the first time. He’s been the Braves’ best player this season, reinventing himself as a player. His refined, disciplined approach has him hitting over .300 as the season winds down. He’s going to log his first 30-homer season. The metrics don’t always grade his defense kindly, but the organization lauds him as a defender. He’s a legitimate MVP contender.
Riley is an obvious extension candidate, locking him in as the team’s long-term answer at third base – something they’ve sought since Jones’ retirement. There’s no urgency to getting Riley’s deal done given everything else on the team’s plate, but the sides could talk.
The outfield conversation will dominate the winter. The Braves have Acuna returning with veteran Guillermo Heredia arbitration-eligible for the third time. Youngster Cristian Pache, who struggled in his first season, will await his next extended opportunity. Top prospect Drew Waters also is at Triple-A, with budding star Michael Harris ascending through the system. Marcell Ozuna’s future is still unclear, but his contract will affect the team’s available resources.
As for the July newcomers, Adam Duvall’s contract includes a $7 million mutual option with a $3 million buyout. Joc Pederson’s deal includes a $10 million mutual option with a $2.5 million buyout. Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario are scheduled to become free agents.
Duvall feels like the likeliest to return because of the situation. The Braves already let him go last winter and traded to get him back July 30 from Miami. Duvall has repeatedly said how much he loves the organization and manager Brian Snitker. Speculatively speaking, it would make sense for the team and player to scratch the option and hammer out a short-term deal, keeping Duvall in the outfield as the Braves fill a need.
Pederson is less clear. He could be seeking a bigger opportunity elsewhere. If the designated hitter is in the NL next season, as expected, Soler becomes even more appealing. Rosario would bolster the team’s bench, but he might also seek a regular role. Keeping even one of that trio would spare the Braves of having to scramble for depth as they did earlier this season.
An interesting offseason isn’t far away. But the Braves will hope it’s more than a few weeks away, and that there will be an October run to analyze before revisiting the offseason conversation.
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