MIAMI – Hey there,
Even after the Braves’ horrible losses, or in their rough stretches, my mind keeps going to this:
If they can just make the postseason, they can go deep. I don’t care about the injuries. I don’t care that they have replacements in the lineup. Their starting rotation should inspire confidence and hope for a magical run – if the team can only make it to October. And right now, they are two games behind the Mets and Diamondbacks with nine to play.
The Braves cannot waste this rotation. That would be a shame. Imagine Chris Sale – the likely National League Cy Young Award winner – sitting on the couch watching a Game 1 when he should be pitching in it. Think about not getting to see Max Fried and Spencer Schwellenbach pitch in the postseason. (It’s still unclear if Reynaldo López will start in the postseason.)
And, really, the Braves’ pitching as a whole has been terrific. It’s good enough to take them far into the playoffs.
Entering Thursday’s slate of games, the Braves’ 3.54 team ERA ranked second in the sport. Their starters’ 3.66 ERA was third – and that factors in everyone who has made a start for Atlanta this season.
I tried to dig into some context. I wanted to answer one question: How likely – or unlikely – would it be for this rotation and pitching staff to miss the playoffs while performing this well?
To have this newsletter out by today, I had to use the numbers entering Thursday (my stat-gathering tool doesn’t update until the following morning.) My findings are below:
Since the introduction of the wild card in 1995, only 13 teams have missed the postseason with a team ERA of 3.54 or better. It hasn’t happened since 2014, when four teams (!) – the Mariners, Braves, Padres and Mets – all missed the playoffs with that criterion. The Mariners had a 3.17 ERA … and didn’t play in October.
Since 1995, 21 teams didn’t make the postseason after their starters had combined to post an ERA of 3.66 or better. Most recently, the 2018 Mets rotation had a 3.54 ERA and missed the playoffs.
(Remember to note that there weren’t three wild card spots until 2022.)
What all of that tells me: The Braves’ pitching staff should be good enough to make the postseason. Emphasis on “should.” This team, as you know, has dealt with ridiculous circumstances with a depleted offense caused by injuries.
It makes you wonder how many wins this team would have if it had been even a little bit better offensively. But don’t think that way just yet. There’s still time to make the postseason.
Thanks to the pitching staff.
Before Thursday, the Braves’ starters had combined for 104 starts of at least five innings and three or fewer earned runs – second only to the Royals and Mariners, who both had 105 such starts from their arms. Consider this: What would this number be for Atlanta if it had Spencer Strider? (Then again, maybe Spencer Schwellenbach never emerges this soon if Strider stays healthy.)
The Braves head to Miami, where they hope to continue winning. They cannot afford any losses to the Marlins, given that next week – series with the Mets and Royals – will be difficult. They need to position themselves well for the final week of the regular season.
And if they don’t make the postseason?
Well, then they’ll have squandered a terrific pitching staff and starting rotation – which will be difficult to swallow in the autumn and winter.
Credit: AP
Credit: AP
Extra Innings
*On Wednesday, Braves manager Brian Snitker said he’s still working out the details of Whit Merrifield’s role when Ozzie Albies returns. Merrifield has started at second base since Albies fractured his left wrist.
If Snitker wants to find playing time for Merrifield, it would likely be at third base – for a couple reasons.
First, Ramón Laureano is too valuable to sit. He’s played a great left field and has impacted the lineup more than any of the replacements.
Second, Merrifield’s left foot is still fractured. Third base would be easier for him than the outfield – especially considering how harsh the Miami turf is for outfielders.
*Marcell Ozuna is at 38 homers and 101 RBI.
If he can reach 40 homers, it would be his second straight 40-100 season – at least 40 homers and 100 RBIs.
Four Braves have had 40 and 100 in consecutive seasons: Andruw Jones (2005, 2006), Hank Aaron (1962, 1963) and Eddie Mathews (1953, 1954, 1955).
*The Braves will start Charlie Morton on Friday, Max Fried on Saturday and Grant Holmes on Sunday in Miami.
This means they could bring back Fried on regular rest for Thursday’s series finale against the Mets at Truist Park – which they may want to do because it’s a critical series. Then again, over the last few weeks, the Braves haven’t toyed with their rotation order.
The rotation for that three-game series against the Mets will be Spencer Schwellenbach, Chris Sale and Morton or Schwellenbach, Sale, Fried.
Or the Braves could flip Schwellenbach and Sale. Schwellenbach, who’s thrown a career high in innings, would get an extra day of rest, and Sale would start on regular rest. This would allow the Braves to bring back Sale for the season finale, which could be a must-win game.
Either way, the Braves will have Schwellenbach and Sale – two of their best arms – going in a crucial series against New York.
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