About three weeks ago, Jurickson Profar first became aware of the Braves’ interest in him. He told his 7-year-old son, Khairy, about it.
“Since I told him that the Braves were interested,” Jurickson said, “he was like, ‘You gotta go there, you gotta go there. What are you waiting for?’ Because of the good players that the Braves have.”
The Braves on Thursday signed Profar to a three-year, $42 million contract. The Braves are making a considerable bet on Profar, who had a career year last season.
On Friday, Profar met the local media on a Zoom call.
“It was a team that I loved since I was a little kid,” Profar, who is from Curaçao, said. “That’s the first team that I started following — professional team.”
He fell in love with the Braves through Andruw Jones, a fellow Curaçao native. In a way, Curaçao also is Braves country. Ozzie Albies, the team’s second baseman, is from there.
And now, so is the starting left fielder.
The Braves are excited to add Profar. He is pumped to be with them. Along with San Diego, his former team, the Braves were at the top of his list.
The Profar-Braves marriage centers around one question: Is Profar’s 2024 season who he is going forward? Both sides believe so.
The Braves’ commitment to Profar means a ton to him.
“A lot, a lot, a lot,” he said. “They showed a lot of confidence in me since the beginning. That means a lot. That means a lot. I’m ready to give it all for the Braves.”
Key question: Which Profar will the Braves get?
On Thursday night, Alex Anthopoulos, the man making this bet on Profar, perfectly encapsulated both sides of the debate.
“The optimist would be us in saying, ‘Look, we think he’s found something. We believe in these swing changes. We think this is who he can be going forward,’” Anthopoulos said. “Someone on the other side, glass half empty, would say, ‘Well, it’s one year.’ That’s the risk you take with these things, right?”
Profar accumulated 3.6 Wins Above Replacement in 2024, according to Baseball Reference. He was an All-Star. The Braves had him as the second-best bat on the free-agent market. Profar had career highs in all of the important statistical categories on offense.
The flip side: He accumulated only 4.8 WAR from his debut in 2012 through 2023. More often than not, he’s finished a season with an OPS under .700. Last season’s numbers, especially his .380 on-base percentage, much higher than in previous years.
“He’s always had the on-base and the contact and all that. The power hadn’t come in,” Anthopoulos said. “And then you really start looking at the swing changes and then you look at how the exit velocity spiked. It correlates. It makes sense. And then you talk to him about it and you have him walk you through it, and it adds up.”
Profar’s analysis of why he added power is simple.
“Hitting the ball,” he said. “Hitting the ball on the sweet spot more times than less. When you hit the ball more on the sweet spot, it’s going to come out harder.”
In the offseason before 2024, Profar worked with Fernando Tatis Sr. (Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. work out together during the offseason.) Profar adjusted his lower half. He opened his stance a bit. He added a leg lift.
He took those into spring training in Arizona after the Padres signed him in late February. The adjustments clicked. A career year followed.
“Obviously, he played,” Profar said of the elder Tatis. “He played. But he just keeps it simple. And he’s always joking around that he retired just when he was starting to go up. Just when he learned it, he retired. He’s always joking about that. He retired smiling.”
How confident is Profar that he’s his 2024 self going forward?
“I’m always confident, I’m always confident,” Profar said. “I’m always working to get better. I’ve prepared myself this year to be like last year, or even better. So I’m very confident that I can help the Braves win a lot of games and go to the playoffs and win a World Series again, like they have meant (to do).”
A stronger, deeper Braves lineup
As we mentioned earlier, Khairy Profar wanted his dad to sign with the Braves.
“He’s a fan of all the good players (in baseball),” Profar said.
Many of them reside in Atlanta. Ronald Acuña Jr. Matt Olson. Austin Riley. Albies. Spencer Strider. Chris Sale. And on and on.
Profar adds important elements to the Braves’ lineup. He’s athletic. He gets on base.
Over his career, Profar has seen the most time in these spots in the batting order: leadoff (233 games), second (156), seventh (141), eighth (131) and ninth (123). He could bat leadoff for the Braves until Acuña returns — though Harris is a terrific option here, too — but Profar could bat as high as second for the Braves because of his ability to get on base.
His numbers against righties and lefties are somewhat similar, though he’s faced right-handers much more. He has a .241 batting average and a .726 OPS against righties and a .256 average and .725 OPS versus lefties.
Profar talked to manager Brian Snitker after the Braves signed him. But the two didn’t discuss his lineup position.
“I will be just happy to be in the Braves lineup,” Profar said. “Wherever I hit, it’s OK. I love to play baseball every day and have fun. It doesn’t matter. I can hit ninth.”
Well, Orlando Arcia likely will bat ninth for the Braves. Let’s take a quick look at how the lineup could look with Profar.
Before Ronald Acuña Jr. returns:
Michael Harris II
Profar
Riley
Olson
Marcell Ozuna
Albies
Sean Murphy
Jarred Kelenic
Arcia
After Acuña returns:
Acuña
Profar
Riley
Olson
Ozuna
Harris
Albies
Murphy
Arcia
The thought here is that getting Profar’s on-base ability in the two-hole could be important, especially with the sluggers around him. His low strikeout rate and respectable walk rate will help here. You could provide other lineup options, too, but for the sake of the exercise, those two show you how deep the Braves are after the Profar addition.
Profar’s defense
The metrics don’t love Profar’s defense. Then again, defensive metrics are sometimes unreliable. The eye test is a good bet here.
Is Profar a Gold Glove outfielder? Probably not.
Is he good enough? Yes.
“I think Profar is very solid in left field,” Anthopoulos said. “We’ve identified some things. We think there’s still some upside there. We’ll see. He knows that. I mentioned to him that we think there’s still another level he can get to defensively. But he hasn’t played that much outfield. Obviously he came up as an infielder and so on. But we did some work on that, and we’ll see. And he’s obviously willing to put in the work and the time and all that. We think there’s some upside there, he can get better. But we think he’s solid.”
Profar now is more comfortable in the outfield than earlier in his career.
“And I like it out there,” he said. “I love to get better. Every day, I like to learn and work to get better. They have a great setup for me to get better in the outfield, too.”
Another important number: 158.
He played 158 games in the regular season in 2024. That doesn’t include winter ball before then or the postseason with the Padres.
“You love the fact that there’s contact and on-base and there’s switch-hit, and so on. It’s a really perfect complement and fit to our team,” Anthopoulos said. “The other piece to it, too, is this is a durable player. Played 158 games last year. That’s a lot of games. We have guys like Matt Olson playing 162. But you get up there, that speaks to makeup, the ability to grind and be able to post. You factor in, he played during the winter (before the 2024 season), then into the season, 158, then into the postseason. We look at the games played column as well. That’s all part of the decision-making and having this type of bat, this type of complement to the lineup, it made a whole lot of sense for us.”
Profar landing with the Braves
At the beginning of the offseason, the Braves or Padres were Profar’s preferred teams. Asked when it became apparent he wouldn’t return to San Diego, he mentioned the ownership situation there — a lawsuit is pending litigation.
“But Alex showed a lot, a lot of interest in me, and I love that. I love that,” Profar said. “He gives me a lot of confidence to come to a team and to perform. People show confidence like that, and it gives you a boost.”
Again, the question is this: Can Profar play like he did last season — or somewhat near that level?
If so, then $42 million over three years is a steal.
The Braves took the risk.
“A lot of times, we’re upside players,” Anthopoulos said. “We’re gonna look at things sometimes, and we feel, philosophically, what makes sense for us is maybe to take on a little bit more risk, tap in a little bit more upside — that allows us to build the best 26-man (roster).”
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