If the Braves want to add A.J. Minter to their All-Star campaign, maybe they should just put his Baseball Savant page on the poster.
Minter isn’t just the Braves’ best reliever. He’s arguably the best in baseball. The lefty has a 1.01 ERA across an MLB-leading 28 appearances. He owns a 36:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding opponents to a .176 average over 26 ⅔ innings. He’s allowed earned runs in only two appearances – he hasn’t been charged an earned run over his last 21 outings (20 innings) dating back to April 27.
The Braves, winners of 11 consecutive games ahead of Monday night’s game at Washington, boast baseball’s best bullpen, statistically. Minter is their most valuable weapon. It’s only natural, then, that his name pops up as All-Star discourse begins (even though fans don’t vote on pitchers).
“I’ll be honest with you, it’s a little weird (to hear myself in the All-Star conversation),” Minter told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Sunday morning. “It’s hard to wrap your head around it because I’m just going out there. I kind of don’t feel I’m All-Star worthy. There’s still a lot more baseball until the All-Star break, and anything can happen. I’m just going out there and trying to help this team. At the same time, I do want to show people I do deserve to be in those talks. It’s been a fun year so far.”
Minter has a 1.3 fWAR, best among National League relievers and behind only the Yankees’ Michael King (1.4) for the major-league lead. Minter ranks 34th among MLB pitchers in fWAR; he’s the only pitcher in the top 40 who’s logged under 30 innings.
The Texas native trails only starters Max Fried and Kyle Wright (1.9) for the highest fWAR of a Braves pitcher. Fried and Wright have their own All-Star cases and might be the best healthy top-of-the-rotation duo in the sport.
“I think (he should be an All-Star),” said emerging Braves reliever Jackson Stephens. “My God, look at his numbers. That’s an easy answer.”
Minter’s stuff has never been sharper. His fastball velocity is up a tick from 2021 (96.1 to 96.6), and it’s generating more swing and misses. His change-up is a key weapon, seeing its whiff percentage leap from 32.3% last season to 36% in 2022. He’s using his cutter a little less, but it remains effective.
The three-pitch mix has produced a 36.7 strikeout rate, ranking in baseball’s top 1%, with just a 4.1% walk rate. He’s in the 91st percentile in chase rate. Minter’s expected batting average against (.170) is lower than the actual result (.176). The 28-year-old is obtaining his success in high-leverage spots, too. The Braves trust him to face the top of lineups, the most potent opposing hitters, and to enter in tight spots and extinguish the threat.
“I think (he should be an All-Star). My God, look at his numbers. That's an easy answer."
“Right now, he’s doing what Luke (Jackson) did for us last year,” manager Brian Snitker said, referencing Jackson’s vital contributions as a high-leverage right-hander. “He’s always taking down the top of the order. As valuable as Luke was for us last year, A.J. has been that for us now.”
Minter dealt with early career struggles, battling through injuries and demotions to fulfill the promise he showed as a top reliever prospect. In 2019, he had a 7.06 ERA and appeared in only 36 games. He had solid but unspectacular numbers a year ago, though he was instrumental in the Braves’ World Series run. In the NL Championship Series, Minter pitched in four of the six games, holding the Dodgers to two hits with eight strikeouts over six innings, helping the Braves finally upend their postseason rival.
Minter’s October success carried into 2022. He’s created the best version of himself yet.
“It’s truly been a roller coaster for me,” Minter said. “Everyone goes through failure, and you just try to learn as much as you can through those times. I feel like I’m finally figuring it out, maturing, knowing my body. If you can’t learn from your failures, you’re never going to get better. You can feel sorry for yourself, pout, say ‘why me?’ but at the same time, you have to look in the mirror and ask how you got there. Try to overcome those obstacles and learn from it.”
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