The Braves are approaching the finish line. They have six games remaining in the regular season after Monday, and they’re on the cusp of clinching a postseason spot for the third consecutive campaign.
When the Braves begin what they hope will be their longest postseason run since 2001, they’ll have to win a best-of-three series to advance to MLB’s Texas bubble. If the Braves are division champions – which seems more likely than not – they’ll host that series next week at Truist Park.
Until then, here are some intricacies to follow over the final games:
1. How does the rotation finish?
Since day 1, the top storyline has been the Braves' rotation, which appeared to be in better shape today than it’s been any other point in the past two months. The group had a clear foursome in Max Fried, Cole Hamels, Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright. Then Monday happened.
Hamels experienced left-shoulder weakness and was placed on the injured list, ending his season. It was a sizable blow to a team that was counting on Hamels providing some level of stability. Now, the rotation is down to three certainties.
Despite a velocity dip, Fried was effective in his return from the injured list. He’ll make another start, currently scheduled for Thursday, before the playoffs. Anderson exploded onto the scene, beating the Yankees and Red Sox in his first two outings, but he struggled in his last start. Wright has returned from the alternate training site looking much improved in his past three outings.
Unlike traditional postseasons, there won’t be off days during series, which put more emphasis on having a complete rotation. Without Hamels, the Braves have even more to figure out in the final week.
2. Who’s streaking?
Outfielder Ronald Acuna broke out of his rut, but shortstop Dansby Swanson’s struggles have persisted. Swanson is 2-for-37 in his last nine games. He has time to rediscover the phenomenal form he displayed most of the season, but it’s disappointing to see such a promising year finishing on a sour note.
Notable: Swanson was one of the few Braves who excelled in the 2019 NLDS. He loves the big moments, so perhaps the postseason itself will reenergize him.
For others, it’s about maintaining performance. Freddie Freeman remains Mr. Reliable. Ozzie Albies has been outstanding since returning from over a month-long absence. Adam Duvall is on a September tear with 11 homers this month. Marcell Ozuna has been a consistent middle-of-the-order menace. Travis d’Arnaud is having a career year.
One more streaky player to watch: Austin Riley. The third baseman hasn’t joined his teammates with a surging September. Instead he’s fallen off, hitting .237/.310/.355 with two homers and four RBIs.
3. What’s the best lineup?
The Braves will have to figure out how they want to arrange their lineup for the postseason, though they seem to have found something with Freddie Freeman hitting second and Ozzie Albies lower in the order.
What transpires in the next several days could prompt change. Maybe Albies does stay sixth and Swanson, hot or not, sticks at the bottom of the lineup. While the lower portion could be rearranged, Acuna-Freeman at the top has been a winning formula.
4. If they stay healthy this week …
Despite the Hamels news, the Braves are the most complete they’ve been since camp reopened in early July. They’ve lost players due to the coronavirus, wrist injuries, back issues and even an esophageal stricture. They enter the season’s final week with a mostly healthy roster.
To the Braves' credit, they’ve avoided the virus since the intake tests. Snitker credited his team’s responsibility and maturity for dodging incidents that’ve affected other clubs.
“We continue to have meetings a lot about the importance of getting through this," he said. "What we have to do, be diligent in our efforts to overcome this. After a while, it was like, ‘We’ve come this far, let’s get after it now.’ I’ve been proud of the guys. They’ve done a great job here of doing the right things and following protocols. … I don’t think you can say that about everybody, but our guys have done a great job.”
5. Does the bullpen hold up?
The Braves haven’t been shy about relying on their expensive bullpen (not that they’ve had a choice). The bullpen owns a 3.43 collective ERA – third best in the majors – and has done so logging 233-2/3 innings, fourth most in MLB.
How effective this group has been, from Tyler Matzek to Huascar Ynoa to Mark Melancon, can’t be understated. The Braves are 24-0 when leading after six innings, one of four teams unbeaten under such circumstance.
When the Braves poured extensive resources into their bullpen, they did so with the postseason in mind. They’ll feel more confident if the group finishes strong.
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