Former President Donald Trump appears to have a slight edge in Georgia over Vice President Kamala Harris in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of likely voters in the battleground state released two weeks before Election Day.
The Republican nominee has a lead of 47% to 43% over Harris, just outside the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. But with 8% of likely voters indicating they’re still undecided, the race could break either way as early voting enters its second week.
Among the most telling takeaways of the poll is the stability of the race. As both campaigns pour time and treasure into Georgia, Trump’s support remains virtually unchanged since the AJC’s last poll in September. Harris’ dropped a fraction of a percentage point. The number of undecided voters has hardly budged.
“It’s a really close race. Neither side has this in the bag,” said University of Georgia political scientist Trey Hood, who oversaw the poll. “And that makes the next two weeks even more important.”
The poll suggests that Harris may still be struggling to woo Black voters, the bulwark of the Democratic coalition. About three-quarters of Black voters say they’ll vote for her, far behind the 88% that Joe Biden won in 2020 when he narrowly flipped Georgia.
That doesn’t mean those voters are gravitating toward Trump. One in 5 Black voters are undecided, while only 8% say they will cast their ballot for Trump. It indicates that Harris’ campaign, which has stepped up efforts to bolster her Black support, should be more worried about apathy than losing those voters to the GOP.
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
In another sign of concern for Harris, 11% of Democrats say they’re undecided. While few back third-party candidates — the Green Party’s Jill Stein and others registered minimal support — the poll suggests she has more work to do to consolidate her base and little time to do so.
Trump fared better in the AJC poll with his core constituencies. He tallied 95% of support from Republicans and won over 80% of conservative voters. But he’s neck-and-neck with Harris among voters 65 and older — normally an area of strength for GOP candidates — and trails the Democrat 41% to 35% among independent voters.
The poll, the last AJC survey before the Nov. 5 election, involved 1,000 likely Georgia voters and was conducted Oct. 7-16 by UGA’s School of Public and International Affairs. It comes as Georgians shatter early voting records and both campaigns plan a busy schedule of stops across the state.
As Trump’s campaign leans into a message of hypermasculinity, the poll shows an ever-sharpening gender gap. Trump leads 59% to 28% among men, while Harris holds a 55% to 37% advantage among women. About 11% of men are undecided, compared with 6% of women.
“I don’t think people struggled as bad under Trump and the policies she’s bringing to the table might address some of it — but she hasn’t told me enough,” said Hunter Robert Moore, a Bartow County fishing guide. “Yeah, he was arrogant. He ran his mouth. But he got things done. And people respected him a lot more.”
Deborah Cotton, who works in foreign relations, once considered herself a devoted Republican. This election cycle, however, the Marietta woman said she’s holding her nose and voting for Harris.
“I don’t trust Trump. I think he’s a little off his rocker. I don’t know how else to put it,” Cotton said. “And to tell you the truth, I’m just picking the lesser of two evils.”
Jim Shumake, who owns a hospitality firm in Atlanta, said the gender gap may even be wider than it appears. A self-described “conservative Democrat,” he said he’s been surprised by the number of Republicans who privately tell him they’re not voting.
“In 2016, the polls said Hillary Clinton would win by a landslide, and I think that’s because Republicans just weren’t saying they supported Trump,” he said. “I feel like the same thing is happening with Harris. I think there are a lot of Republican women who will go in the voting booth and vote for Harris.”
Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
One aspect that has changed since the AJC’s earlier polls: Voters are far more excited about supporting their candidates than they were a few months ago, when Biden was the expected Democratic nominee. About 96% of likely voters say they were somewhat or very enthusiastic about their picks.
“I’m excited for a lot of reasons,” said Everett Rucker, a Norcross Democrat who works in the software development industry. “I’m excited to elect the first Black woman president, but most of all, I don’t ever want to hear about Donald Trump ever again. Go live your life; just stay out of mine.”
And voters are optimistic their pick will win. About 80% of Democrats say they’re confident Harris will prevail in November, and a similar proportion of Republicans think Trump will win. Independents are relatively split, with one-third saying they don’t know who will win.
“To some extent, I’m excited about the election,” said Lowell Register, a retired radio station operator from Macon. “I really feel the country with Donald Trump in office was just much better than the absolute terror we’ve seen in this country since he left office.”
That sunny outlook over their presidential picks doesn’t extend to their broader view of the nation’s direction. Roughly 60% of respondents say Georgia is headed down the “wrong track,” including most Republicans and nearly two-thirds of independents.
As with other polls, a combination of the economy (17%) and inflation (19%) tops the list of voter concerns. Even so, about 60% of voters say they’re confident that the U.S. economy will improve over the next year.
Rounding out the list of top voter concerns, about 17% of Georgians say that preserving democracy is the biggest factor in their vote, followed by immigration at 14%. The rest of the issues, including abortion and gun violence, are in the single digits.
Voters are split down the middle along party lines over their impressions of Harris and Trump, with roughly half saying they see each in a positive light. Independents have a dimmer view of Trump than Harris, with only 29% saying they have a favorable opinion of the Republican.
Credit: NYT
Credit: NYT
Georgians are similarly divided over their running mates, though one-fifth say they still don’t know enough about Republican U.S. Sen. JD Vance and Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to form an impression.
Gov. Brian Kemp continues to maintain a positive rating from most Georgians, with 56% of likely voters saying they view him favorably, compared with nearly one-third who give him a negative rating. One in 4 Democrats, along with most independents, give him a positive review.
Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, who is up for a second term in 2026, also has a net favorable rating. Some 43% of voters give him high marks, compared with 28% who have a negative view. Nearly one-third of voters still don’t have an impression of him.
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