Split tickets and the Biden effect: What to watch in Georgia’s election

Four years ago, state Democrats entered the final stretch before the election with a sense of momentum as polls showed a neck-and-neck race between Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams before the Republican scored his narrow victory.

Now, Democrats are entering the last hours of the rematch on edge. Kemp has a solid lead in most public polls, as do down-ticket Republican contenders. The closest race is between Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker, which could wind up in a December runoff if no one gets a majority of the votes.

Here’s what to watch on Election Day:

SPLIT THE TICKET. Georgia voters rarely split their tickets in marquee races. But polls all year have indicated that a small but significant number of Republicans who back Kemp and other GOP candidates are withholding their support from Walker.

Senior GOP strategists worry those crossover voters could send the race into overtime despite a political climate that’s favorable to Republicans. In interviews, some say they’re worried about Walker’s history of violent behavior and fitness for office.

Warnock has appealed to those voters by bringing up Walker’s troubled past and steering clear of President Joe Biden and other polarizing Democrats. He recently compared himself to the late Johnny Isakson, a popular Republican lawmaker.

With polls tightening, Walker is scrambling to mobilize GOP skeptics by equating a vote for him with a vote against Biden and a Democratic-controlled Congress. How that bloc of voters breaks could be the difference between a runoff and an outright win.

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THE DEMOCRATIC BASE. In the final days of the race, key Democrats signaled they were plainly worried about voter enthusiasm. With more than 2.5 million early ballots already cast, it wasn’t clear how many of the party’s core supporters had engaged.

Abrams’ campaign took extraordinary steps to appeal to Black voters, who make up the backbone of the party’s support. Recent polls showed her support among those voters inching up, though she and other Democrats are hoping for soaring turnout to win.

“The African American share of the early vote is nearly 30%,” Democratic strategist Fred Hicks said. “If that holds or grows, it favors Democrats. But if that falls below 28%, then that favors Republicans.”

Christina Matacotta for the AJC

THE KEMP EFFECT. The first-term governor is polling as one of the most popular figures on the ballot, with far higher favorability ratings than Abrams, Biden and former President Donald Trump.

Kemp’s advisers expect his popularity to boost Walker and other Republicans on the ticket, even though he’s kept the former football player at arm’s length throughout the campaign. Walker, too, has steered clear of Kemp.

“I don’t think people should read anything into that,” Kemp said Monday. “We’re dividing and conquering.”

While the governor and his allies expressed confidence about his chances of an outright win, Abrams campaign manager Lauren Groh-Wargo said early voting patterns give the Democrat a “path to victory mathematically” and a chance of a runoff.

Arvin Temkar/AJC

THE BIDEN FACTOR. While Biden visited other battleground states, he was nowhere to be found on the Georgia campaign trail. With an approval rating below 40% in the state, even his staunchest Democratic allies were reluctant to mention his name.

Warnock, in particular, took pains to avoid talking about the president he helped elect in 2020. At campaign trail stops, he preferred mentioning his bipartisan work with U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and other conservative Republicans.

Democrats instead gravitated toward safer figures — a late October rally with former President Barack Obama drew thousands — but Biden’s sagging popularity remained a dominant theme until the last hours of the election.

“Why isn’t Raphael Warnock campaigning with Joe Biden?” Kemp asked ahead of a statewide fly-around tour.

Even as Republicans tried to turn the focus on Biden, Democrats were more reluctant to bring up Trump. That’s partly because it would serve as a reminder that Kemp and other GOP incumbents clobbered unpopular Trump-backed challengers in the May primary.

“Brian Kemp ran independently from Trump,” conservative pundit Martha Zoller said, “and that’s going to drag all the Republicans across the finish line.”

Alyssa Pointer / Alyssa.Pointer@ajc.com

ECONOMY AND ABORTION. Decades-high inflation and a wobbly economy have scrambled voters’ decisions in 2022 — and led Republicans to focus on a message that Democratic policies are to blame for the rising prices.

Democrats acknowledge that the economy is the paramount issue to most voters, but they also say the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade means that abortion is a uniquely motivating issue for the first time in nearly 50 years.

If Democrats score surprise gains, they say it will be partly because the state’s anti-abortion restrictions spurred a backlash against Republicans that wasn’t detected by pollsters and pundits.

“Abortion is the silent issue that will propel a lot of Democrats in these final hours,” said state Rep. Erick Allen, a Smyrna Democrat. “Abortion is an economic issue for so many voters, and it’s hard for the polls to capture.”

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