President Donald Trump has built an apparent lead over former Vice President Joe Biden in Georgia after two weeks of political conventions, strengthening his position in a state that’s crucial to his re-election chances, according to a poll released Tuesday by Channel 2 Action News.
The poll, conducted by Landmark Communications, shows Trump ahead of Biden, 48% to 41%. About 2% of Georgians support Libertarian Jo Jorgensen, while 9% are undecided.
The survey of 500 likely voters, conducted Saturday through Monday, is the first public poll released in Georgia since the end of the rival conventions. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.
It used the same questions, weighting formula and number of respondents as a Landmark poll released at the start of the Democratic meeting on Aug. 17 that showed Trump and Biden were running roughly even in Georgia.
In the latest poll, Trump’s level of support remained roughly the same, hovering around 48%. But Biden fell from 44% to 41%, as the proportion of undecided voters roughly doubled.
The survey points to formidable advantages for Georgia Republicans, who have won every statewide race for more than a decade and carried the state in every White House contest since 1996, including Trump’s 5-point win in 2016.
Trump led Biden among voters older than 40 and had a 20-point edge among men. He also amassed more support among core Republican voters (87%) than Biden had among Democrats (78%). And he led 50% to 38% with voters who had watched both political conventions over the past two weeks.
“It’s a statistically significant change. Basically, the GOP consolidated behind Trump. They appeared to like the message from the convention,” said Mark Rountree, the president of Landmark. “It just looks to me like the RNC made a big difference.”
Other recent polls have shown a tighter race in Georgia, including surveys from Monmouth University, YouGov and SurveyUSA that each suggested a close contest. A survey conducted during the start of the RNC that was released Monday by Public Polling Policy, a left-leaning firm, showed Georgia was a toss-up.
Democrats have promised to flip Georgia while Republicans have intensified their efforts to defend the state, mindful that a Trump defeat here could spell doom for his re-election chances.
The Landmark poll highlighted bright spots for Biden, too. He led Trump 45% to 16% among independent voters, a bloc that once reliably supported Republicans in Georgia. About 80% of Black voters back the Democrat, and he leads Trump 43% to 37% among voters ages 39 and under.
“It’s probably all temporary — a convention bounce. But it shows there’s room for Trump to go up,” Rountree said, nodding to the roughly one-third of independents who still haven’t decided. “I’d put Georgia in the lean Republican category.”
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