Gov. Brian Kemp’s internal metrics paint an optimistic portrait of his chances in November against Stacey Abrams. They also signal a potential opening among voters of color.
A Cygnal poll of 1,200 likely general election voters commissioned by Kemp’s campaign showed the Republican on similar ground as several other recent polls, with a 50-45 lead over his Democratic rival.
But a deeper dive into the findings revealed data that Kemp’s operation plans to act on. He’s winning roughly 60% of Hispanic women who are 50 and older, according to the internal polling, and about 57% of men between the ages of 35-64.
Kemp’s aides said they expect the campaign to amp up paid media that specifically targets Hispanic voters, including issues ads that highlight the governor’s fiscal policies and decision to reopen the economy weeks into the coronavirus pandemic.
“Abrams leads overall with Hispanics and Asians but even the fact that the governor is close to 40% with those voter groups is encouraging,” said pollster Brent Buchanan of Cygnal.
“Wait until he spends money on it. I believe the governor will expand on his margins with minority voters over the next few months.”
Kemp’s pollsters also assert that Black voters are not a “homogenous voting bloc” for Abrams, who would be the state’s first Black governor.
The poll found about one-quarter of Black voters under the age of 35 back Kemp, with many indicating that gas and rising inflation are top concerns. About one-third of those voters have a negative view of President Joe Biden.
Black voters comprise the most important electoral bloc for state Democrats, who regularly carry more than 90% of African-American voters. Democrats are confident she’ll maintain that streak, particularly now that Georgia’s anti-abortion law is in effect. Kemp’s campaign seems ready to place a wager.
“He can hit double-digits with African-American voters,” said Buchanan. “It means Abrams has to make up the difference with white voters. And in our poll he’s winning white voters 69-27 – and that’s 61% of the projected turnout.”
Here’s where we remind you that internal polls are to be taken with a grain of salt because they’re designed to make a candidate look good. And in a closely-divided state like Georgia, with momentous U.S. Supreme Court decisions upending the political landscape, contests are expected to tighten.
Abrams and other marquee Democrats will look to head off GOP efforts to woo voters of color with renewed calls to expand Medicaid, promises of tax refunds and vows to reverse the state’s abortion restrictions.
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