The Brian Kemp-Raphael Warnock split-ticket voter that kept surfacing in polls ahead of Election Day didn’t prove so elusive after all.
Although the final result in the Senate race is still too close to call, every statewide Democratic candidate appeared to have lost on Tuesday — except for Warnock. As of Wednesday morning, returns show Warnock leading Republican nominee Herschel Walker with only a slight margin.
The detailed vote count shows the trend further. On the Democratic side, Warnock finished with about 130,000 more votes than gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, with about 1,923,800 for the senator as of Wednesday morning. For the Republicans, Walker trailed Gov. Brian Kemp’s total by about 201,000 votes, with 1,894,928 votes overall.
Hyosub Shin/AJC
Hyosub Shin/AJC
Several factors explain why Warnock outperformed the rest of the statewide Democratic ticket. Walker’s history of misstatements, violence against his ex-wife and controversy over abortion kept some GOP voters away.
But Warnock’s Biden-free, more moderate campaign, also helped make him a viable alternative to those potential swing voters. A more than $70 million cash advantage over Walker helped, too. Warnock finished ahead of Abrams by about 3 percentage points — the difference between a runoff and an outright defeat.
Can Warnock replicate that result in a Dec. 6 runoff?
Miguel Martinez/AJC
Miguel Martinez/AJC
If Senate control hangs in the balance again, that could boost Walker. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings remain low in Georgia, and polls indicate many voters are willing to look past their concerns about Walker to vote for Republican control of the chamber.
But if control of the Senate is clearly decided for either party, it could tilt the odds toward Warnock. Republicans would no longer be able to frame the race as a check on Democratic control, and GOP voters concerned about Walker’s personal issues may have less of a reason to turn out to vote, especially without Kemp on the ballot.
Come back to AJC.com throughout the day for more details on the Senate race, down-ballot races, and other results from Tuesday night.
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LISTEN UP. We have a special election night edition of the Politically Georgia podcast, taped moments after Gov. Brian Kemp declared victory at his party at the Coca-Cola Roxy. We break down the governor’s race, the deadlocked Senate contest, and the other dynamics driving the night.
Listen and subscribe to our podcast for free at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or Stitcher.
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POWER SUITE. Nearly 2,000 well-wishers piled in to Gov. Brian Kemp’s victory party at the Roxy on Tuesday night.
Among the power players on hand to see Kemp barrel into his second term were multiple members of the state House and Senate, who rubbed elbows with lobbyists, GOP county leaders, and Kemp-world heavy hitters. Outgoing state Sen. Jeff Mullis held court with an orthopedic boot on one bum foot, while state Rep. Barry Fleming, who is planning a run for state House Speaker, worked the room.
Jason Getz/AJC
Jason Getz/AJC
State Reps. Kasey Carpenter and Wes Cantrell as well as state Sen. Tyler Harper also on hand. (Harper is the incoming agriculture commissioner.) Look for House leadership elections next week at the state Capitol.
Also spotted at the Kemp event were Intercontinental Exchange CEO Jeff Sprecher and former U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler.
Loeffler spent millions to launch her own conservative voter registration and mobilization efforts through Greater Georgia and Citizens for a Greater Georgia, which focused on state senate races. Loeffler told us she’s planning to pore over the data from election night to plan ahead for the future.
“We’re gonna look at a seat-by-seat analysis to see what pickups we had,” she said. “Did we expand the margins? On a county-by-county level, too, what does that look that like? And where could we have done better?”
She said she wants a “self-critical analysis” to prep the organization to help Republicans in 2023 municipal elections and beyond.
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BISHOP PREVAILS. Republicans drew the new lines for the 2nd Congressional district to make it an easier GOP win, and party leaders originally hoped a red wave could sweep their candidate into office.
But U.S. Rep. Sanford Bishop, a Democrat, handily won reelection in the Southwest Georgia district by about 55% to 45% over his challenger, Chris West. Bishop will remain the dean of Georgia’s congressional delegation.
In the end, West was not able to build enough support to unseat the 30-year veteran, who has cultivated a reputation for working with members of both parties.
It seemed like national Republicans saw the writing on the wall. The National Republican Congressional Committee never spent any money to help West after he won the primary. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party spent millions on ads, staff and other resources to help Bishop defend his seat.
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Miguel Martinez/AJC
Miguel Martinez/AJC
GEORGIA DELEGATION SET. Every U.S. House incumbent on the ballot in Georgia won Tuesday night. That includes U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene despite a staggering $15.6 million thrown at her Democratic challenger, Marcus Flowers.
And Republicans won two conservative-leaning open House seats with Rich McCormick in the 6th Congressional District and Mike Collins in the 10th Congressional District.
The state’s delegation lost one Democrat and picked up a Republican after Republican-led redistricting made McCormick’s 6th Congressional District a new GOP stronghold.
The only incumbent to lose reelection was U.S. Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux, the Democratic incumbent in the 7th District, who lost to U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath after McBath jumped ship from the new GOP-leaning 6th.
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Arvin Temkar/AJC
Arvin Temkar/AJC
MTG’S VISION. It seems likely, but not guaranteed, that Republicans will win control of the U.S. House once all races are settled.
Once in the likely majority, U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is poised to have a much bigger influence during her second term than she had in her first, when Democrats quickly stripped her of committee assignments after several controversial statements and actions.
Greene issued a lengthy statement overnight that should serve as a warning, not just to Democrats, but to GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy and other top Republicans, too.
Speaking about the voters who elected Republicans this cycle, she said GOP leaders need to fulfill promises the party made on immigration, crime, the economy and education.
“These voters chose Republicans to straighten up our country, drain the swamp, and fight for them,” Greene wrote. “Together, we can hold our party accountable and make sure they don’t let America’s families down.
“I will lead the fight to make damn sure my party does not fail.”
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arvin.temkar@ajc.com
arvin.temkar@ajc.com
ROCK THE PARTY. Both Herschel Walker’s and U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock’s election night parties remained upbeat even as their race appeared headed toward a runoff Tuesday.
Warnock’s good vibes were partially attributed to Carl Burroughs, who is also known as DJ C Blendz. The 33-year-old from Lithonia started DJing when he was just 8 years old, following in his father’s footsteps.
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AS ALWAYS, Jolt readers are some of our favorite tipsters. Send your best scoop, gossip and insider info to patricia.murphy@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com and greg.bluestein@ajc.com.
