While Democrats are giddy about the record-breaking voter participation so far in the runoff — particularly the soaring turnout from Black voters in Georgia — Republicans also have reason to be optimistic.
Herschel Walker campaign manager Scott Paradise noted that on Monday, the first day of early voting in all of Georgia’s 159 counties, turnout was particularly robust in lightly populated rural counties Walker carried in the midterm, along with the important GOP strongholds of Forsyth and Hall counties.
Still, Warnock appears to have a clear overall advantage so far, especially with large numbers of voters in metro-area counties that lean Democratic. Among counties that backed U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, 478,000 people had voted through Tuesday. In counties that supported Walker, 355,000 ballots have been cast.
Although they trail Democratic strongholds like Fulton and DeKalb in population, the turnout spike in red counties indicates the kind of enthusiasm GOP strategists are anticipating amid an otherwise unforgiving climate. A series of blunders and missteps has complicated Walker’s runoff campaign.
“All this being said, only 2% of the General’s Election Day voters have cast a ballot so far in the runoff,” Paradise tweeted.
“Herschel Walker won Election Day voters in the General Election by 15 points, a nearly 220,000 vote margin. So, we’re just getting started!”
As the AJC’s Charles Minshew and Mark Niesse note, turnout Monday was the highest ever single day of early voting in Georgia history, with 301,545 voters casting ballots in person ahead of Tuesday’s Senate runoff election. That smashes the previous single-day record from the 2016 presidential election, when 252,715 Georgians voted early in person.
Early voting yesterday was even higher, with 309,083 ballots cast. Altogether, more than 833,000 Georgians have already voted in this year’s runoff.
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LISTEN UP. The midweek edition of the Politically Georgia podcast is ready with the latest from the last week of the last U.S. Senate race in the country.
We’re looking at the competing closing strategies of U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker, along with the data on early voting turnout in the Peach State.
Listen and subscribe at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or Stitcher.
Finally, if you’ve got a question ahead of the runoff, be sure to give us a call on the 24-hour Politically Georgia podcast hotline at (770) 810-5297. We’ll play your question and answer it during the listener mailbag segment on Friday’s episode.
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SUBURBAN SWING. When U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock scheduled a Dave Matthews concert for Cobb County this week, we knew which group he was targeting — the crucial suburban dwellers who have increasingly become key to Democratic successes in Georgia.
Credit: TNS
Credit: TNS
The Washington Post columnist Perry Bacon has a Marietta dateline today pointing to Cobb County as part of a national trend that’s kept Democratic hopes alive lately. More:
In the 2004 election, Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry lost Georgia by 17 percentage points, including a 25-point defeat in Cobb. Two years ago, Joe Biden very narrowly won Georgia, in part because of his 14-point victory in Cobb. Sen. Raphael G. Warnock carried Cobb by 16 points in this month's election and will need a similar margin to defeat Republican challenger Herschel Walker in their Dec. 6 runoff.
The electoral transformation of Cobb County is part of a broader shift happening in U.S. politics. Over the past decade, Americans who live in rural areas, a group that already leaned toward the Republicans, has become even more conservative. Urban areas are increasingly Democratic, but cities such as Detroit and Philadelphia were already so left-leaning that there wasn't much room for Democratic growth. What's been the saving grace for Democrats in the 2018, 2020 and 2022 elections has been voters in suburban areas backing the party, particularly around Atlanta, Detroit, Philadelphia and Phoenix.
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Credit: AJC
Credit: AJC
TODAY ON THE TRAIL:
- Herschel Walker holds campaign stops in Dalton and Rome.
- U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock will host rallies in Quitman, Camilla, Columbus and at Albany State University.
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Credit: Oliver Contreras /The New York Times
Credit: Oliver Contreras /The New York Times
MEADOWS TESTIMONY. The South Carolina Supreme Court decided Tuesday that former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows must testify before the special grand jury in Fulton County investigating former President Donald Trump. Meadows had petitioned the court to avoid testifying.
Although he had originally been scheduled to meet with the grand jury today, the date will be rescheduled to give him more time to make arrangements, the AJC’s Tamar Hallerman reported.
The South Carolina Supreme Court upheld a circuit court judge’s ruling last month requiring Meadows to testify. The five-member court unanimously said it had reviewed Meadows’ arguments objecting to the circuit court decision and “find them to be manifestly without merit.”
Although he hasn’t wanted to come to Georgia recently, Meadows did unexpectedly show up in Cobb County in December of 2020 during an audit of signatures from absentee ballot envelopes. He also infamously hosted a lavish, and crowded, Atlanta wedding for his daughter at the height of COVID-19 lockdowns and an Atlanta curfew in May of 2020.
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AVERTING A STRIKE. The U.S. House is rushing legislation to the floor today in an effort to thwart a rail labor strike by passing a bill that imposes a new labor agreement on workers.
President Joe Biden announced in September that freight rail companies and unions representing tens of thousands of workers reached a tentative agreement to avoid what would have been an economically damaging strike. But some of the labor unions rejected that agreement, creating the possibility of a strike that could cripple the nation’s supply chain during the busy holiday season.
Despite being known for his pro-union stances, Biden has encouraged Congress to take the rare step of imposing the contract on the unions. Congressional leaders, who met with the president Tuesday, appear ready to follow through.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that the House will vote on the contract language this morning. Members will also take up a separate measure to add a week of paid sick leave to the agreement, addressing a major sticking point raised by unions who opposed the negotiated deal.
“After hearing from our Members, we are in agreement that a nationwide rail strike must be prevented — and that more must be done to secure the paid sick leave that hard-working railroaders deserve,” Pelosi wrote in a letter to members Tuesday night.
If the House approves those measures today, the revised agreement would then head to the Senate for approval, all with the goal of keeping holiday shipping on time.
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TODAY IN WASHINGTON:
- The U.S. House is expected to take a vote on legislation to avoid a rail worker strike.
- The Senate will focus on confirmations while it waits for the railroad legislation from the House.
- President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and their families will attend the National Christmas Tree Lighting.
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Credit: Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
Credit: Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
DEARLY BELOVED. As expected, U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock did not travel to Washington for Tuesday’s vote on legislation to codify federal protections for same-sex and interracial marriages.
But with the support of the 49 other Democrats and 12 Republicans, the bill passed 61-36. It now goes to the House, where Speaker Pelosi said a vote will be scheduled for next week.
U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff in a statement after the vote praised the bipartisan coalition that ensured the bill’s passage.
“The right to choose our spouse, to choose the person with whom we start a family, is fundamental,” he said. “Today Democrats and Republicans came together to advance human freedom.”
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Credit: File photo
Credit: File photo
START YOUR ENGINES. The first bill of the 2023-2024 session of the Georgia General Assembly has been pre-filed at the state House and it gives a hint of what’s to come in January.
The Pro-Birth Accountability Act from state Rep. Dar’Shun Kendrick, D-Atlanta, would provide compensation for pregnant women, “who but for a fetal heartbeat law could choose to terminate the pregnancy but are compelled to carry the pregnancy to term and give birth to a child.”
With a 100-79 GOP majority in the state House, Kendrick’s bill won’t have a chance of passage. But it gives a window into the issues Democrats will be bringing to the table and the forward posture they’re already in.
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JOINING FORCES. Two of the biggest names in Georgia GOP communications are joining forces. Cody Hall and Stephen Lawson announced Tuesday that they’re launching Full Focus Communications, a firm for political, corporate and nonprofit clients.
Hall is coming off of Gov. Brian Kemp’s successful reelection campaign after years as a close aide to Kemp. Lawson came up in Florida GOP politics, including a run with Gov. Ron DeSantis. Since 2020, Lawson has worked as an adviser to U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s Senate campaign, along with Lt. Gov.-elect Burt Jones, U.S. Rep.-elect Mike Collins and 34N22, the super PAC supporting Herschel Walker that has occasionally gotten better press than the candidate himself.
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MOOOVING DAY. If you’re a campaign staffer headed to Columbus soon to get out the vote, and we know many of you are, be sure to visit Kadie the Cow in her new swanky digs on the Columbus waterfront.
WRBL’s political reporter, Chuck Williams, was on the case Tuesday as the towering fiberglass bovine was moved from the old Kinnett Dairies, where she stood for more than 50 years, to greener pastures alongside the heart of downtown Columbus. We predict plenty of candidate selfies with Kadie to come.
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AS ALWAYS, Jolt readers are some of our favorite tipsters. Send your best scoop, gossip and insider info to patricia.murphy@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com and greg.bluestein@ajc.com.
