Four years ago, Georgia Republicans entered the final sprint before Election Day election with polls showing a neck-and-neck race between then-Secretary of State Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams — and a last-minute rescue mission from Donald Trump designed to rev up the nervous GOP faithful.
Now it’s the Democrats who are on edge. At campaign stops around the state, Democratic candidates hammered away at a common theme: Don’t give up.
In a homecoming visit Sunday to his native Savannah, U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock praised the bipartisan appeal of the late Republican Johnny Isakson as he escalated criticism of Herschel Walker, rolling out attacks he was hesitant to use just a few weeks ago.
“I’m still hopeful that we may be able to clinch this by Tuesday. If not, we’ll soldier on,” he said, alluding to a possible runoff.
Abrams didn’t have any major public events on her calendar on Sunday, instead making several quieter retail stops such as a visit to a Kroger in metro Atlanta. She also hasn’t announced an election eve rally like the one Brian Kemp has planned with most of the GOP ticket. Her campaign has scheduled a media briefing to detail her “paths to victory.”
The strategic decisions were seen by nervous Democrats and optimistic Republicans as another sign of GOP strength headed toward Tuesday. Comfortably ahead in the polls, Kemp rallied the party faithful in north Georgia. And Walker predicted an outright victory at a west Georgia stop.
“Democrats want to talk about pronouns?” he said. “I’ll tell you what: Raphael Warnock’s new pronoun is ‘former senator.’”
Speaking of Walker, he’ll be the lone holdout from Kemp’s rally with the GOP ticket Monday night. Walker has his own event planned with U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham a few miles down the road at the exact same time.
***
Credit: Branden Camp for the AJC
Credit: Branden Camp for the AJC
SATURDAY SPECIALS: We had a special Saturday edition of our Politically Georgia podcast dedicated to the immense change coming after House Speaker David Ralston announced he won’t seek another term as leader.
Fellow Insider Tia Mitchell also joined the pod with a conversation with Roy Wood Jr. of “The Daily Show.”
And catch up on the action on the trail from the end of the week with a special Saturday edition of The Jolt.
Listen below and be sure to subscribe at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or Stitcher.
***
OVERTIME ODDS. The question we Insiders are asked all the time: If U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker land in a runoff after Tuesday’s election, who is favored to win? The short answer: Nobody knows. The longer answer: It depends.
Credit: AJC
Credit: AJC
Republicans dominated every statewide runoff election in Georgia history until 2021, when Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff won with the help of an epic ground game, a clear message — and election fraud conspiracies promoted by Donald Trump that dampened Republican turnout.
If Senate control hangs in the balance again, it could favor Walker. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings remain low in Georgia, and polls indicate many voters are willing to swallow their concerns with Walker to vote for Republican control of the chamber.
But if control of the Senate is decided for either party, it could tilt the odds toward Warnock. Republicans would no longer be able to frame the race as a check on Democratic control, and GOP voters concerned about Walker’s baggage may have less of a reason to turn out to vote.
***
Credit: Gabriela Bhaskar/The New York Times
Credit: Gabriela Bhaskar/The New York Times
SENATE CONTROL. The race between U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker could determine control of the U.S. Senate, but what exactly does that look like?
In addition to slowing or stopping President Joe Biden’s nominations and bringing GOP investigations to center stage, a GOP win would also flip control of Senate committees. Among the senators who would get the biggest boost are the ones who have come out to the trail for Walker recently.
U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham has said he would take over the Budget Committee from Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders.
U.S. Sen. Tim Scott would likely chair the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee instead of Ohio progressive Sen. Sherrod Brown, and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz would become the chairman of the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, which oversees tech issues among other big-ticket items.
Other major changes would come for the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, which Wisconsin Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson is in line to chair. And U.S. Sen. Rand Paul would likely get the gavel of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. Paul has been vocal in his opposition to vaccine mandates and other COVID-19 safety measures.
A change in Senate control would also mean U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff would lose the gavel of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. Ossoff has used the spot to investigate conditions in U.S. prisons and housing for service members and their families on military bases.
While Senate control is up in the air, Republicans are bullish on their chances of flipping control of the U.S. House. Tia Mitchell has a look at how that would affect the Georgia delegation.
***
Credit: Jenni Girtman for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Credit: Jenni Girtman for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
MISINFORMED? Former Atlanta mayor and current White House adviser Keisha Lance Bottoms got a grilling on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday, where she was pressed on top Democrats’ statements that their policies would be popular if Americans had gotten the message about them.
“If your policies are so good, why is communicating them such a problem?” asked host Margaret Brennan.
“It’s been a very difficult couple of years,” said Bottoms. “We have been in the midst of a pandemic. There’s been a lot of misinformation flooding the airwaves. We see that not just on television, but through YouTube and other social media platforms. So it is more difficult to get the message out.”
She added later about hometown politics, “The possibility of Herschel Walker going to the Senate is frightening.”
***
COBB LAWSUIT. Cobb County election officials have been sued over their failure to mail absentee ballots to more than 1,000 voters.
The AJC’s Mark Niesse reports that the lawsuit filed Sunday asks a judge to require Cobb County to send ballots by overnight mail and extend the state’s deadline to return them.
Credit: John Spink/AJC
Credit: John Spink/AJC
Many of the 1,036 voters who did not receive the ballots they requested, especially those who live outside the county, won’t be able to participate as Election Day approaches, the suit said.
State law requires that their ballots be received by the time polls close on Tuesday unless the voter is military personnel or living overseas. The lawsuit asks a judge to extend the deadline to Nov. 14 for the Cobb voters, too.
***
Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
TODAY ON THE TRAIL:
- Gov. Brian Kemp has a final campaign fly-around launching in Atlanta and stopping in Columbus, Macon, Albany, Savannah and Augusta. He’ll end the night with a rally in Kennesaw.
- U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock has campaign stops in Macon and Columbus.
- Herschel Walker’s bus tour will stop elsewhere in Kennesaw this evening where he will rally with U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham and Ben Carson, the former secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development. A planned stop in Johns Creek was canceled.
***
Credit: Christina Matacotta for the AJC
Credit: Christina Matacotta for the AJC
TRAIL MIX. Statewide candidates were back on the trail Saturday and Sunday, and now it’s election eve. Among the highlights from across the state:
- Herschel Walker campaigned with former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, where he talked about that UGA win Saturday. “Y’all just saw how Georgia beat Tennessee, did you not?” And the way they beat them is by being a team, and that means coming together.”
- U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock said he is hoping to appeal to moderate voters by channeling the bipartisan reputation of his predecessor, Republican U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson.
- A Saturday event in Atlanta for Stacey Abrams hosted by unions and left-leaning groups was part campaign rally and part concert.
- Just in time for Election Day, Gov. Brian Kemp extended the suspension on the state gas tax for another month.
Be sure to check AJC.com each afternoon through Election Day for our “On the Georgia Trail” feature, where we’ll recap the news and notes from the day on the campaign trail in Georgia.
***
HOMECOMING. U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock returned to Savannah for a rally Sunday night, where hundreds came out for his final hometown rally.
Warnock was joined by actress Lynn Whitfield and filmmaker Spike Lee, a fellow Morehouse College alum who was born at Atlanta’s Grady Memorial Hospital.
Warnock told the crowd that he didn’t appreciate the beauty of the historic city until after he left, first for college and then to begin his career as a pastor.
“Honestly, I had to be able to travel, grow up a little bit and go away and come back to appreciate, the way I do, our verdant town squares and cobblestone streets, statuesque oak trees with dripping Spanish moss,” he told the crowd. “They look like old men … bending and beckoning the love of history and horticulture to this city by the sea. There’s no place like Savannah.”
***
POPPIN’ AT THE POLLS. The group Joy to the Polls has coordinated a series of pop-up concerts around Atlanta on Tuesday to entertain people who are waiting in line to vote.
Rapper Baby Tate, singers Chavis Flagg and Remi Wolf and DJ Jay Jash are among those who will be performing at voting sites in Atlanta. Joy to the Polls is a nonpartisan voting initiative.
***
BELIEVERS. A new poll from Public Opinion Strategies for the nonpartisan Secure Democracy Foundation found that 83% of Georgia voters have confidence in Election Day voting, while 82% have faith in early in-person voting.
The survey also showed 78% percent believe the state should certify an election even if a candidate refuses to concede, if there is no evidence of fraud. And 87% of Georgia voters strongly believe elections should be free of political interference.
The online survey polled 401 Georgia voters with a margin of error of 5.58%.
***
AS ALWAYS, Jolt readers are some of our favorite tipsters. Send your best scoop, gossip and insider info to patricia.murphy@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com and greg.bluestein@ajc.com.
