With less than two weeks until the election for Atlanta mayor, the latest AJC poll suggests a two-person race for spots in a likely runoff later next month.
City Council President Felicia Moore and former Mayor Kasim Reed are essentially neck-and-neck in the survey. You can read about all the findings here from the AJC’s City Hall gurus, but we’ll focus here on the significant questions it raises about the final stretch of the race.
Can Reed and Moore stay on top?
The poll showed Moore at about 24% and Reed hovering around 20% -- and the rest of the field locked in the single digits.
Councilman Andre Dickens has been particularly aggressive trying to break into the top tier, clashing with Reed over the ongoing corruption probe into his former administration. But his poll numbers didn’t budge from the last AJC poll in September.
But time is running out for Dickens, Councilman Antonio Brown and attorney Sharon Gay to force their way into an expected Nov. 30 runoff.
What’s with all the undecided voters?
We were surprised the number of undecided voters remained roughly the same as it did in the AJC’s previous poll, defying conventional wisdom that more Atlantans would make up their minds as the election neared.
In the last poll and in this one, about 41% of voters were undecided. Only one quarter of registered voters say they’re “very closely” watching the race. About 40% say they’re either not paying attention or “not very closely” monitoring the contest.
That’s despite millions of dollars spent – and all sorts of behind-the-scenes shenanigans – to influence the vote. Some 85% of Atlanta voters remember seeing a Reed ad, while 70% have seen a Moore ad. The numbers for the other three top candidates hover around 50%.
Does the former mayor have much room to grow?
Reed won’t mind seeing himself at the top of the poll, but a closer look at the crosstabs should be concerning.
Half of Atlanta voters have an unfavorable view of the former two-term mayor. That’s slightly higher than the September poll (44%). Only about one-third see him in a positive light.
Reed’s negatives are highest with white voters (65%) and Republicans (52%). A slim majority of Black voters (51%) have positive views of him. Only 15% say they have no opinion about him at all.
What’s more, about 61% of voters say the ongoing corruption probe makes it “less likely” for them to support him. That includes 85% of white voters and two-thirds of Republicans.
Will Moore expand her coalition?
The city council president has a different sort of challenge. She led Reed solidly among Republicans, by a 33-10 margin, and held a narrow edge over him with Democrats. But nearly 40% of voters still don’t know enough about her to form an opinion.
The poll suggests Atlantans warm up to her once they know who she is. Some 50% have a favorable view of Moore, compared with a 14% unfavorable review. The positive outlook crosses party lines, with a slight majority of Democrats and Republicans giving her favorable reviews.
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On the same note, you should read the in-depth profiles by our AJC colleagues of the leading five candidates for Atlanta mayor.
Here are links to the stories about Antonio Brown, Andre Dickens, Sharon Gay, Felicia Moore and Kasim Reed.
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The AJC broke the story yesterday that the Georgia Bureau of Investigation concluded there wasn’t enough evidence to pursue an investigation into ballot fraud pushed by Georgia GOP chair David Shafer that involved cellphone signals collected by a controversial conservative voting group.
A few hours later, former state Rep. Scot Turner had an interesting addendum. Writing in Peach Pundit, he said Shafer told party officials that he had presented evidence of ballot fraud claims to Gov. Brian Kemp and that he “simply refused to investigate.”
Except, he added, Shafer didn’t detail the flimsiness of the so-called case to GOP officials, including the lack of a witness to any purported fraud. The GBI’s letter to Shafer said without a witness or other evidence, there was no legal grounds to move forward with the investigation.
It was down right false at worst, and likely designed to sow seeds of discontent with the Governor’s leadership among party officials. ...
So this means one of two things are true: 1. There is no source and Mr. Shafer made it up, or 2. Mr. Shafer is harboring a potential criminal and refuses to report the identity of his source to investigators. I cannot figure out which of these two things are worse. Either way, the GBI is willing to investigate if Mr. Shafer will give them what they are asking for.
Turner concluded: “I believe that Mr. Shafer has some explaining to do with those party officials he misled into believing that the Governor had turned his back on claims of fraud. And then he needs to explain to the rest of us why he won’t name the source.”
Shafer declined to comment when we reached out to him yesterday.
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Democrats released their version of Georgia’s congressional map, which would split the state’s 14 U.S. House districts in half with seven leaning Democratic and seven leaning Republican.
The map won’t pass the Republican-controlled Legislature but it will give Democrats a chance to show voters what they would have done with the reins of power had GOP leaders been swept from office.
Democrats say their proposed district lines more accurately reflect the near 50/50 split of voters in recent elections. Expect to hear about it plenty as Republicans take aim at one – or both – of the suburban districts now held by Democrats.
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U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock has taken the lead on a letter written by members of the Congressional Black Caucus urging Democratic leaders not to remove a Medicaid expansion provision from President Joe Biden’s social policy proposal.
The bill currently carries a price tag of $3.5 trillion over 10 years, but negotiators are whittling it down to $1.8 trillion or so. That has led to lobbying from interest groups and lawmakers about what to keep and what to remove.
The letter from the CBC members says that disparities in health care are too important and the federal government needs to create a program expanding Medicaid in states like Georgia where Republican leaders have refused to do so.
“It is imperative that the coverage gap remain a priority and should be addressed in a meaningful way to provide those affected with comprehensive and stable coverage,” the letter says. “We cannot continue to exacerbate racial inequities in health by not sufficiently closing the coverage gap.”
Georgia Reps. Lucy McBath and Nikema Williams are among the 27 who also signed onto the letter.
Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC
Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC
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Third Way, an organization that is advocating for clean energy policies to address climate change, is spending $1 million on digital ads praising lawmakers in swing districts, including U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath, for supporting Democrats’ social spending and climate change bill.
The ad mentioning McBath will run on YouTube and Facebook.
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Several Georgians picked up some nice hardware from the American Association of Political Consultants latest round of awards. Congrats to them all.
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As always, Jolt readers are some of our favorite tipsters. Send your best scoop, gossip and insider info to patricia.murphy@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com and greg.bluestein@ajc.com.
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