And President Joe Biden will try to overcome his lagging approval ratings to again capture Georgia, a state Republicans view as a must-win for the GOP to retake the White House.

Here are some of the political questions that could define the state in the coming year.

How will the 2024 — and 2026 — elections infect Georgia politics?

The General Assembly’s special session in December to redraw Georgia’s congressional and legislative boundaries was a reminder that campaign politics invades just about everything under the Gold Dome this close to an election.

Republican leaders used the session to force Democrats to take sides on resolutions supporting Israel and the proposed Atlanta public safety center, announce a pitch to speed an income tax cut and unveil new boundaries designed to preserve GOP incumbents.

Consider it a taste of what’s to come. Come January, GOP leaders will peddle proposals to gin up voter enthusiasm. Democrats, too, will push their priorities, though without the numbers to force any votes.

But the 2024 session will also serve as a prelude to 2026, when a term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp is out of office and Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff is up for a full six-year term.

Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, Attorney General Chris Carr and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger are all likely contenders for higher office, and each has promoted provocative policies that could form the basis of his campaign agenda.

Kemp, a potential challenger to Ossoff, is sure to send notice that he’s no lame duck. He jammed most of his priorities through an agreeable Legislature in 2022, and he followed up in 2023 with successes on every major policy save for a school voucher expansion.

And rising Democratic figures such as U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath will look to sharpen battle lines early. It was no coincidence, after all, that McBath was one of the first Democrats to slam the lieutenant governor when he proposed giving teachers cash to carry weapons in classrooms.

Credit: undefined

Credit: undefined

How will Georgia’s top politicians navigate their rising profiles in 2024?

The 2022 midterms solidified U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, Gov. Brian Kemp and U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene as bona fide national figures. In the next election cycle, they’ll balance their growing platforms with important roles in the race for the White House.

Warnock became the first Georgia Democrat in more than a decade to win a second consecutive statewide election, building a fundraising network and national reputation that rivals some presidential contenders.

He won a full U.S. Senate term by stressing bipartisanship and steering clear of President Joe Biden — even though he supported the president’s priorities. As anxious Democrats fret about rebuilding their fragile 2020 coalition, Warnock could be a central figure in the race.

Kemp fended off Republican David Perdue and Democrat Stacey Abrams to win reelection and then briefly entertained thoughts of running for the White House himself.

As a Republican who survived Donald Trump’s wrath, vanquished a national Democratic star and twice captured the highest office in an important battleground state, Kemp seems certain to stay in the national mix while preparing for life after the Governor’s Mansion.

And his 2024 endorsement is coveted by GOP candidates. Kemp is likely to announce his decision within weeks, though he’s also said he would support Trump if he’s the nominee.

Credit: TNS

Credit: TNS

Greene’s power in Congress has ebbed and flowed this year as she’s gone from pariah to power broker to somewhere in between with the rise and fall of her allies.

But what has remained constant is her ability to command the attention and affection of far-right media and MAGA loyalists — and perhaps just as importantly, the disdain of her many critics.

Greene’s U.S. House seat appears safer than ever after her 2022 defeat of a Democrat who raised more than $16 million. But does she have higher aspirations? She could be in the mix as Trump’s running mate — and has floated the idea of a statewide run in 2026.

How will Fulton County’s Donald Trump trial influence the 2024 race?

One of the biggest uncertainties during this exercise last year was whether Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis would even seek charges against Donald Trump. Now, one of the biggest unknowns in 2024 is when an election-interference trial will be scheduled.

What’s clearer is Trump plans to use the legal case in Georgia and three other jurisdictions to bolster the never-surrender ethos that has endeared him to many Republicans — and has others warning he will be the party’s lasting doom.

In polls and interviews, Georgia Republicans seem split. Though many say they won’t vote for a candidate convicted of a “serious” felony, many also see the charges against Trump in Fulton County and beyond as a politicized effort to block him from office.

Credit: TNS

Credit: TNS

The more recent court cases seeking to render him ineligible to run for a second term have only emboldened Trump’s supporters. His top GOP rivals, meanwhile, have at times tiptoed around his most glaring vulnerabilities.

Georgia’s March 12 primary could be an early test of Trump’s hold on the party in a state where he has been repudiated by voters. That is, if the race for the party’s nomination is still competitive at that stage in the contest.

How will Kemp-Warnock voters cast their ballots in ‘24? Will disillusioned voters stay home?

This is a two-part question that could decide the race for the White House.

The 2022 midterm revealed a significant bloc of voters who backed both Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock.

Analysts say that segment of the electorate is a mix of moderates, swing voters and disaffected Republicans who could be up for grabs in 2024. Many live in parts of metro Atlanta that once formed solid GOP territory but shifted left during Donald Trump’s presidency.

Their continued opposition to Trump is no given. President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings have triggered concern among Democrats in Georgia and beyond about his reelection chances.

Credit: ajc

Credit: ajc

Republicans have worked since 2020 to undercut Biden’s economic message, leaving the president and his allies to wrestle with Kemp over credit for the electric-vehicle and green energy projects poised to bring billions of dollars and tens of thousands of jobs to Georgia.

At the same time, some of Biden’s most fervent supporters in 2020 say they’re disenchanted with his presidency three years later. Sharp concerns about his economic agenda and foreign policy decisions have only added to their hesitancy.

Biden’s camp is confident that contrast will only sharpen if Trump wins the nomination and turns the race into a straight-up rematch; other Democrats worry that the president and his allies haven’t done enough to promote his agenda and lay the groundwork for 2024.

What will Georgia’s political maps look like?

When a federal judge ordered Republican lawmakers to redraw the state’s political boundaries to include more majority-Black districts, some Democrats were overjoyed about the potential for new gains. Others braced for partisan blowback.

The maps that emerged in December wound up solidifying the GOP’s control of the Legislature while dissolving the suburban Atlanta seat held by Democratic U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath, whose district was gutted by the Republicans for the second time in two years.

Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC

Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC

The overhaul was fiercely opposed by Democrats and challenged by their allies in court, triggering a new phase of an ongoing legal battle over the federal Voting Rights Act that could ultimately be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.

There’s little wiggle room: State officials need the maps by January to be ready in time for the election as qualifying for office looms in March.

Is this the year Republicans embrace a Medicaid expansion?

After more than a decade of Republican-led opposition to expanding Medicaid, there may be an opening for a compromise that could add more Georgians to the program’s rolls.

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Why the optimism? Senior Republicans say an agreement could involve a tradeoff over legislation that would make it easier to build new hospitals — a priority of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones — in exchange for loosening long-standing opposition to an expansion.

Georgia is one of only 10 states that have refused to expand the program, and some Republicans are tired of being pummeled by Democrats every year on a federal program that even hard-line conservatives in other states have embraced.

State GOP leaders have united behind Gov. Brian Kemp’s plan to require recipients to meet work or education requirements, though it has attracted only a handful of takers. The federal waiver that allows the program will expire in 2025, and its prospects of reauthorization are dim.

The odds of a breakthrough remain slim, particularly in the Georgia Senate, whose GOP leaders promote a more strident strain of conservatism. Even so, allies of House Speaker Jon Burns have worked quietly to gauge support for a plan modeled after red-state Arkansas’ system.