Republicans fret about a possible Marjorie Taylor Greene run for Senate

There are at least a half-dozen Republicans seriously considering a U.S. Senate run now that Gov. Brian Kemp has said he won’t challenge Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff.

But only one name has GOP leaders in both Georgia and Washington on edge.

Ever since U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene told the “Politically Georgia” podcast in February that she’d consider a bid if Kemp passed, nervous Republicans have been bracing for the fallout. Now that prospect feels a whole lot more real.

“Ossoff just became the luckiest politician in America. And now he wants MTG to run and guarantee he gets even luckier,” said Jay Morgan, a former Georgia GOP executive director, who added: “She’s smart enough not to be played by Ossoff.”

Greene’s shock-and-awe style has made her one of the most recognized GOP figures in the nation, helped her build an extensive fundraising network and given her newfound clout in the Republican-controlled U.S. House.

But her history of hateful and polarizing statements, her incendiary burn-it-down approach and her lockstep alliance with President Donald Trump could alienate independent voters and disillusioned Republicans.

Credit: Ben Gray for the AJC

Credit: Ben Gray for the AJC

The most recent AJC poll showed the limits of her appeal. Ossoff led her by 17 points in a hypothetical matchup, due partly by her weak showing among independents. She drew support from just 25% of them. Kemp, by contrast, carried 46% of that bloc.

Kemp’s allies are just as squeamish about a Greene bid. Republicans are still haunted by the ghosts of 2022, when a vulnerable-seeming U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock fended off Republican Herschel Walker’s disastrous bid.

“It’s possible that Greene could win a Republican primary,” said Republican consultant Mark Rountree. “But it’s unlikely she could win a general election, and conservatives would once again have blown an opportunity to defeat Democrats in Georgia.”

Key Democrats are goading Greene to run. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Monday that the GOP was “stuck” with Greene as the party’s champion. Democratic Party of Georgia Chair Charlie Bailey called her a “wannabe senator.”

“MTG and her band of hopefuls will have to answer for a tanking economy fueled by tariffs, brutal federal layoffs hitting seniors, vets, and kids and slashing Medicare and Medicaid,” he said.

Greene, meanwhile, is playing by her own rules.

“The polling shows that I can win the governor’s primary or the Senate primary or continue to represent my district,” she told NewsNation last night. “That’s a choice that I can make. And I’ll give it some thought.”

Things to know

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

Good morning! Gov. Brian Kemp has eight days left to either sign or veto bills passed by the state Legislature this year. He’s signed 62 bills into law so far and hasn’t vetoed anything yet. You can follow along with the AJC’s Legislative Navigator.

Here are four things to know for today:

About that conference

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

Credit: Jason Getz/AJC

Gov. Brian Kemp’s decision not to run for the U.S. Senate came as he and hundreds of his closest allies hunkered down in swanky Sea Island for his annual donor retreat.

The event helped restock his political machine’s coffers — some gave as much as $100,000 to serve as an “executive chair.”

CNN commentator Scott Jennings addressed attendees. So did Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders. And current and future state Republican leaders packed the event.

But Kemp was the biggest draw. Kemp gave his marquee speech late Monday, after the crowd of dozens had a few hours to digest the news.

His message: he may not be on the 2026 ballot but he’ll be on the ball field. That’s Kemp’s way of saying he won’t be sitting idly on the sidelines — and that he’s ready to deploy his machine to help a viable candidate.

Now, many are questioning what his next step will be.

Some believe Kemp, an Athens native and diehard Bulldog, could position himself to succeed UGA president Jere Morehead. Others see the 61-year-old thriving in the private sector. But some of those closest to him suspect he could be angling for a presidential bid in 2028.

Guaranteed income

Credit: TNS

Credit: TNS

A common criticism of guaranteed income programs is they discourage people from working. But as the results of a recent Atlanta study show, sometimes that’s not a bad thing.

A yearlong program in Atlanta gave 265 people $500 a month with no restrictions on how they could spend it. Researchers then compared those people with a similar group who did not get the payments.

Their findings, out this morning, show that people in the program ended up making about $4,000 less than their counterparts — not including the $500 monthly payments. This data, plus interviews with participants, suggests people in the program cut back on their paid work hours to focus on things like parenting, going back to school, or caring for elderly parents. But they didn’t stop working entirely.

“We know it’s not that people just stop working,” said Michael Tubbs, founder of Mayors for a Guaranteed Income, the group that backed the program. “People are able to use the cash to work within their communities within a variety of ways.”

The program was funded by grants from Atlanta and Mayors for a Guaranteed Income and administered by the Urban League of Greater Atlanta.

Other findings:

Rivian whiplash?

Credit: Evan Vucci/AP

Credit: Evan Vucci/AP

Electric vehicle startup Rivian will hold its earnings call today, and observers will be listening closely for reaction to U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s comments over the weekend.

Wright, who visited a Georgia water heater plant on Friday, told Bloomberg Television that the agency plans to withhold billions of dollars in loans previously approved by the Biden administration, including some in the final days of his time in office.

“We’ve got a lot of reasons to be worried and suspicious about that,” he said.

The federal government announced in November that it would award Rivian a $6.6 billion loan to help build a factory in Georgia. (Cox Enterprises, which owns The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, owns about a 3% stake in Rivian.)

But Rivian is in a better position than others. It’s loan officially closed a few days before Biden left office, essentially solidifying a contract between the company and the federal government. Undoing it would be difficult, if not impossible.

The company seemed unconcerned when we asked them about it on Monday.

“Rivian is laser-focused on bringing back American manufacturing, creating 7,500 jobs and new economic opportunities with our future Georgia facility,” spokesperson Peebles Squire said.

Spending increase

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

Elon Musk’s chain saw has gotten a lot of airtime in the first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s second term as his Department of Government Efficiency initiative slashed funding for thousands of federal jobs and programs.

But as U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., noted in his town hall over the weekend, federal spending has actually grown during the first three months of 2025 compared to last year.

“When new research shows government spending is up this quarter compared to this time last year despite DOGE’s reckless and dangerous cuts, it’s clear that they are not serious about cutting government waste,” Warnock said.

Musk estimates DOGE has saved the federal government about $160 billion so far. But CBS News reported federal spending was up $200 billion during the first 100 days of the Trump administration compared to the same period last year.

If anything, the discrepancy highlights just how much money the federal government spends. CBS says the bulk of the increases came from higher interest rates on the national debt plus direct payments to the military and seniors for health care expenses.

Listen up

Credit: Daniel Varnado for the AJC

Credit: Daniel Varnado for the AJC

Today on “Politically Georgia,” Patricia Murphy and Tia Mitchell unpack Gov. Brian Kemp’s decision to forgo a U.S. Senate race against incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.

Plus, newly elected Democratic Party of Georgia Chair Charlie Bailey joins the show to diagnose what went wrong for his party in 2024 and its possible path to win in 2026.

Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.

You can listen and subscribe to the show for free at Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Today in Washington

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Before you go

Credit: Screenshot

Credit: Screenshot

State Rep. Vance Smith lost his private sector job after he voted against Gov. Brian Kemp’s litigation overhaul proposal. But he has a good chance of keeping his political job after the House Republican Caucus endorsed his reelection campaign.

That’ll do it for us today. As always, you can send your best scoops, gossip and insider info to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.