Today’s newsletter highlights include:
- Herschel Walker hasn’t decided if he will ever run for office again.
- State Supreme Court upholds tax on some strip clubs.
- Georgia will lend money to farmers facing Hurricane Helene damage.
The presidential candidates are gone. The campaign visits are almost over. It’s election eve in Georgia, and the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump seems as tight as ever. Let’s take a closer look at where things stand.
1. Turnout. After a slow start, turnout in Democratic-heavy counties surged in the final days of early voting as a record 4 million Georgians cast their ballots. Antsy Democrats heaved a sigh of relief, and Republicans acknowledged the edge they think they built thinned.
2. Polls. A fresh round of polling from The New York Times and Siena College confirmed internal Democratic surveys: the softer-than-expected support for Harris among Black voters that worried her campaign has improved. She polled at 87% among Black voters, right about where her campaign expects her to be.
Notably, the same poll also pegs Harris with 31% of support from white voters — above the 30% mark her strategists hope to reach. As for Trump, he has the near-universal backing of Republicans and is leading among independents, 48-46.
Credit: Ben Gray for the AJC
Credit: Ben Gray for the AJC
3. Strategy. Now that many of the most reliable voters have already banked their ballots, both campaigns have turned to hassling the party stalwarts who haven’t yet voted while hunting for others who rarely participate in presidential elections.
For Trump, that means leaning more into his party’s traditional base while appealing to young, male voters. His argument at the Macon rally that Black men are losing jobs because of illegal immigration was emblematic of that approach. (Critics say his claim is racist and isn’t true based on data.)
With her party’s base rallying around her, Harris can also turn her attention to wooing more swing voters, particularly women who once regularly voted Republican but are infuriated by Trump’s anti-abortion stance.
4. Analysts. We’ve heard from senior Republicans who are sure that Harris will pull out a squeaker. And we’ve heard from veteran Democrats worried Trump will eke out a nail-biter. Savvy analysts say either campaign is within striking distance, even if Republicans entered the final stretch with a slight polling edge.
***
Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
GOOD MORNING! Election Day is tomorrow. Here are three things to know for today:
- Vice President Kamala Harris on Saturday campaigned in Georgia for likely the final time before Election Day, urging voters to reject former President Donald Trump’s comeback bid, the AJC’s Greg Bluestein reports.
- On Sunday, Trump used his final rally in Georgia this election cycle to promise a “golden age” if he’s returned to the White House while offering bleak pictures of Democratic rule, Bluestein reports along with Maya T. Prabhu and Adam Van Brimmer.
- Georgia Republicans are trying to invalidate absentee ballots collected in seven counties over the weekend, the AJC’s Ashley Ahn and David Wickert report.
***
Credit: AJC file photo
Credit: AJC file photo
NUNN WEIGHS IN. Former Georgia U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn, a Democrat, became a highly respected national security expert during his 24 years in office. His commentary in Time magazine on this year’s election caught our attention.
Nunn wrote about former President Donald Trump’s public statements deriding some of the country’s top generals and his own former advisers. That includes his comments on social media calling former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, “a Woke train wreck,” former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, “dumb as a rock”, and former Trump Chief of Staff John Kelly, “by far the dumbest of my military people.”
Writes Nunn:
A president can fire whom he chooses, but our nation paid a price when President Trump sought to publicly humiliate outstanding people whose main sin was telling him what he did not want to hear. So, we as voters face an important question — what kind of person will be willing to work for Donald Trump if he is re-elected?
By contrast, in Vice President Kamala Harris, Nunn wrote, ”I have seen the performance of a leader who inspires and shows respect, while ensuring accountability, for the team that she and President Biden have built.”
***
Credit: Ben Gray for the AJC
Credit: Ben Gray for the AJC
WALKER’S RETURN. In a rare interview, former Republican U.S. Senate candidate Herschel Walker told AJC Political Insider Tia Mitchell that he hasn’t decided if he’ll seek office ever again.
Walker attended former President Donald Trump’s rally in Macon on Sunday, but he stumbled over his old friend’s name repeatedly as he wrapped up his remarks.
***
MORAL VICTORY. While some Georgia politicians lost their free speech case before the state Supreme Court, at least one justice thinks the law they challenged needs some serious work.
You might remember when state Rep. Park Cannon, D-Atlanta, and then-state Sen. Nikema Williams (now a congresswoman) and others were arrested as they protested at the state Capitol in 2018.
They were charged under a state law that bans people from disrupting the General Assembly’s work. While the charges were dismissed, they sued to overturn that law, arguing it was both unconstitutionally broad and vague.
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
Last week, the state Supreme Court rejected their argument. But Justice Nels S.D. Peterson wrote that Georgia officials “should not confuse this limited victory with a clean bill of health for this statute.”
“The statute is seriously flawed,” he wrote.
Specifically, Peterson notes the law doesn’t require people to either intend to disrupt or to actually disrupt proceedings. Without such guardrails, Peterson says it might be possible to prosecute school children who are being too loud in the hallways while the Legislature is in session.
The solution is not another lawsuit. Instead, Peterson urged the state Legislature to “correct” the statute. Otherwise, he said authorities in charge of enforcing this law “will be in a very difficult position.”
***
STILL WAITING. Eight years ago, Georgia voters changed the state Constitution to impose a tax on some strip clubs and use the money to pay for an anti-child trafficking program. They’ll have to wait a bit longer to find out for sure whether it’s legal.
The Georgia Supreme Court weighed in last week, upholding the tax. But the Georgia Association of Club Executives, which represents adult entertainment clubs, plans to ask the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene. It’s a long shot — SCOTUS only accepts a small percentage of cases — but it’s enough to at least leave the future of the law in doubt.
The clubs respect the court’s ruling, but feel they’re being targeted because of the nature of their business, said Gary Freed, an attorney for the association.
“There is no correlation between licensed adult entertainment and minor sex trafficking. The clubs are trained in preventing this,” he said.
Republican Attorney General Chris Carr praised the state Supreme Court’s ruling, calling it “a major victory.”
“It’s yet another reason why Georgia is leading the nation in the fight against human trafficking,” he said.
***
HELP IS ON THE WAY. It turns out Georgia has some large couch cushions.
The state’s top Republican leaders on Friday found $100 million in the budget. They plan to lend it to farmers to help them recover from damage caused by Hurricane Helene.
The money was tucked away at the Georgia State Financing and Investment Commission. It was supposed to offset some of the state’s debt. Instead, the commission, which includes most of Georgia’s statewide elected officials, voted to give it to the Georgia Development Authority so they can loan it to farmers.
“This measure is the latest we’ve taken to help them rebuild their livelihoods, but it will not be the last,” Gov. Brian Kemp said.
The authority will meet today to decide how to loan the money, which is something they have a lot of experience doing. They used to be called the Georgia Agricultural Development Authority, but they dropped the “agricultural” part in the 1960s. Still, they mostly loan money to farmers.
Executive Director Thomas G. Carter said the loans “are going to be a very, very, very low rate.” After Hurricane Michael in 2018, the authority loaned money at rates starting at just 1%.
Of the $100 million, $75 million will be loaned to farmers. The rest will go to aid cleanup efforts and debris removal on Georgia’s timberland.
***
Credit: AP
Credit: AP
LISTEN UP. Today on “Politically Georgia‚” Gabriel Sterling, chief operating officer for the Georgia Secretary of State’s office, talks about voter confidence and what to expect on Election Day. Political strategist Rick Dent also joins the show.
Be sure to download the AJC’s Politically Georgia podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Episodes are uploaded by noon each day, just in time to have lunch with us. You can also listen live at 10 a.m. EDT on 90.1 FM WABE. Have a question for the show? Give us a call at 770-810-5297.
On Friday’s show, the hosts interviewed State Election Board Chair John Fervier. Then music producer Isaac Hayes III talked about the role of entertainers and pop culture in the presidential race.
***
Credit: Morry Gash/AP
Credit: Morry Gash/AP
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. Today’s happenings:
- An election eve get out the vote concert in Atlanta on behalf of Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign will feature performances by 2 Chainz, Keyshia Cole, Tamar Braxton and the Morehouse College marching band.
- Second gentleman Doug Emhoff, Harris’ husband, will campaign in Greenville, North Carolina.
- Harris will campaign in Scranton and Allentown, Pennsylvania, before attending get out the vote concerts in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
- Former President Donald Trump will campaign in Raleigh, North Carolina; Reading and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and Grand Rapids, Michigan.
- Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, will campaign in La Crosse, Wisconsin; Flint, Michigan; Atlanta; and Newtown, Pennsylvania.
- Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, will campaign in La Crosse, Stevens Point and Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
- U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., will campaign for Harris in Macon.
***
Credit: AJC
Credit: AJC
KNOW YOUR STUFF. Immigration is top of mind for many voters in Georgia this election season. That includes questions about health care.
As part of our “Know Your Stuff” series, a reader asked the AJC’s health care expert Ariel Hart how much money Georgia spends each year paying for the health care expenses of immigrants who are in the country without legal permission.
Hart explained that in Georgia, immigrants without legal status are not eligible for the government’s two big health insurance programs — Medicaid and Medicare.
But Hart said there’s an exception:
Hospitals are forced by federal mandate to stabilize any emergency patient who comes in the door, regardless of insurance status. When someone's not insured and doesn't have money to pay, that leaves the hospital in the lurch.
She added:
In return for that emergency service, Medicaid will take on that patient's bill and pay the hospital if they otherwise would have met the eligibility criteria such as age and income.
Hart asked the Georgia Department of Community Health how much money Medicaid spent on immigrants living in the country illegally. But they did not have an answer.
***
Credit: John Spink/AJC
Credit: John Spink/AJC
SHOUTOUTS. Today’s birthday:
- Alex Sanz, the AJC’s deputy managing editor and politics director.
Belated birthdays (all were Saturday):
- Gov. Brian Kemp.
- State Rep. Rhonda Burnough, D-Riverdale.
- State Rep. Scott Holcomb, D-Atlanta.
- State Rep. Gabe Okoye, D-Lawrenceville.
Want a birthday shoutout in the Politically Georgia newsletter? There’s a form for that! Click here to submit the shoutouts. It’s not just birthdays. We’re also interested in new jobs, engagements, birth announcements, etc.
***
AS ALWAYS, send your best scoops, gossip and insider info to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.
About the Authors
