Will Trump effect be felt downballot? Georgia House GOP fear backlash in November

Today’s newsletter highlights:

Jimmy Carter’s grandson to speak at Democratic National Convention.
Election conspiracist in Georgia GOP backs Trump in feud with Kemp.
Latest installments in “Voter Voices” series explores appeal of Harris vs. Trump.

Credit: Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Credit: Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Besides the race for president, the handful of swing state legislative seats up for grabs in November might be the most hotly contested elections on Georgia’s ballot.

Republicans are growing increasingly antsy about their chances in these “frontline” seats now that Vice President Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee and former President Donald Trump is reopening raw internal wounds.

The Georgia House GOP caucus convened on Thursday and Friday. The takeaway from the closed-door meetings? November is going to be a bumpy ride.

Once confident about exploiting President Joe Biden’s stumbles to maintain their 102-78 majority in the House, GOP officials privately say they may be fortunate to escape with just one or two net losses. Trump’s feuding with Gov. Brian Kemp hasn’t helped calm nerves.

“We aren’t getting any help from the top,” said one Republican who attended the meetings. “He’s injected another layer of volatility.”

Credit: Ben Gray for the AJC

State Rep. Mesha Mainor, a Democrat-turned-Republican who represents a deep-blue Atlanta district, is the juiciest Democratic target. State Rep. Ken Vance of Milledgeville is also particularly vulnerable.

But other legislative battlegrounds in Atlanta’s suburbs are tighter, GOP leaders say, and will be buffeted by multimillion-dollar infusions by Kemp’s political machine and House Speaker Jon Burns’ network.

Several Republicans said their saving grace may be the dysfunction across the aisle: the House Democratic caucus spent part of the year fighting over its leadership, and its staff is in rebuilding mode .

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Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

CARTER’S MOMENT. Former President Jimmy Carter told his family a few weeks ago he doesn’t care as much about making it to his 100th birthday as he does living long enough to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris.

Now his grandson, Jason Carter, could play a pivotal role in her nominating convention.

NBC News reported the former Georgia gubernatorial contender is expected to speak as a representative for the presidential family during the four-day convention that opens on Monday, Aug. 19.

He’s likely to be one of several Georgia speakers during the Chicago gala. We won’t be surprised if U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock lands a prime assignment. And former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, who has endorsed Harris, may also get a coveted spot.

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BATTLEGROUND GEORGIA. The ad-tracking firm AdImpact Politics turned heads when it reported that former President Donald Trump’s campaign purchased $37.2 million worth of airtime on Friday.

That’s the highest total his campaign reserved on any single day of the election cycle. And most of it — nearly $24 million — was devoted to Georgia.

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Credit: Courtesy photo

KEMP TRUMP. We told you about the outpouring of support for Gov. Brian Kemp from Georgia Republicans after former President Donald Trump renewed his one-sided feud against him last week in Atlanta. But we’ve never seen anything quite like this.

Bill Corey, a Kemp ally who owns a 300-foot smokestack towering over the Downtown Connector, changed a digital billboard that for days called Kemp “America’s #1 Governor” into something … uh … even more flattering.

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Credit: Miguel Martinez/AJC

KEMP BACKLASH. Plenty of former President Donald Trump’s allies are taking his side in the fight with Gov. Brian Kemp. One of them is particularly outspoken: David Cross, the election conspiracist who was last year elected second-vice chair of the Georgia GOP.

Cross has routinely criticized Kemp, including in a social media post this week, saying he has “done nothing to help Republicans win in Georgia” and that he’s failed to support the state GOP.

Separately, Cross is also encouraging Trump backers to “infiltrate” pro-Kamala Harris events during the Democratic National Convention and surprise her supporters by trumpeting Trump.

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Credit: Matt Rourke/AP

NEW MATH. The conventional wisdom among Georgia Democrats has been that to win an election a candidate needs 30% of white voters to vote Democratic and Black voters to make up 30% of all voters.

The AJC’s Phoebe Quinton writes that the rule largely has held true, but with caveats. In the past several presidential and midterm elections Black voters have hovered just a few percentage points below 30% of all voters in races won by Democrats, and winning Democratic candidates have received slightly less than 30% of white voters’ support.

Over time, political scientists predict the 30-30 benchmark will gradually decrease, as other racial groups in the state grow in size and white voters become a smaller share of the electorate.

“The small changes in the size of the Latino and Asian population, small changes in the rate of Democratic support for Black voters, are the difference between winning and losing,” said Bernard Fraga, a political scientist at Emory University.

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Credit: Nathan Posner for the AJC

LISTEN UP. Today on “Politically Georgia,” U.S. Rep. Sanford Bishop, D-Albany, talks about serving in Congress with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who is now Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate.

Atlanta area immigration attorney Charles Kuck discusses U.S.-Mexico border policy and how it may impact the presidential contest.

Listen live at 10 a.m. on WABE 90.1 or follow “Politically Georgia” on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

In case you missed it on Friday, U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., talked about his bill now signed into law that created new oversight for federal prisons. He also weighed in on the 2024 presidential race.

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Credit: Atlanta Police Department

LAWMAKER CRASH. State Rep. Devan Seabaugh, R-Marietta, has denied charges that he was intoxicated when he struck a cyclist with his vehicle while driving in Grant Park on Thursday.

Seabaugh was cited for driving under the influence of alcohol, driving under the influence of drugs and five other infractions. Seabaugh took to social media over the weekend to say he was not drunk and has never used drugs.

Details about the accident, including the well-being of the cyclist, have not been disclosed. Seabaugh said there were no serious injuries.

Seabaugh is in his second term in the Georgia House and faces Democratic challenger Karl Gallegos in the November election.

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Credit: Joe Kovac Jr./AJC

VOTER VOICES. The latest installments of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s ongoing series “Voter Voices” has published to the AJC’s politics page. The stories appear monthly and profile voters in five Georgia counties where presidential elections tend to be decided by either a thin margin or where one party’s candidate traditionally dominates.

This month’s pieces focus on former President Donald Trump supporters in Chatham and Peach counties and Vice President Kamala Harris backers in Banks and Clayton counties.

The series launched in April and will continue through the November election, providing glimpses into what drives voter loyalties in those areas.

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DUPREE ON THE SQUAD. Our Washington Insider, Jamie Dupree, notes the recent struggles of a progressive group of U.S. House Democrats, known as “The Squad,” in a column that published Friday.

A second member, U.S. Rep. Cori Bush, D-Mo., recently lost a primary race, joining U.S. Rep. Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y., who was ousted in a primary back in June. Another Squad insider, U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., faces a primary challenge on Tuesday.

Dupree explores what is costing these legislators their seats — and why others, such as U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., seem immune. Dupree points to Bush and Bowman’s outspoken criticism of Israel in the war in Gaza.

Writes Dupree:

“Just look at Ocasio-Cortez. She has echoed some of the same public complaints about Israeli actions in Gaza — but isn't close to being in any kind of electoral trouble.

That's mainly because Ocasio-Cortez has transformed herself into more of a Democratic Party insider — witness her recent role in defending President Joe Biden from fellow Democrats — and by taking care of her constituents."

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Credit: arvin.temkar@ajc.com

TODAY IN WASHINGTON:

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have no public events on their schedules.
The House and Senate are in recess until Sept. 9.
U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., discusses his legislative agenda during a meeting with Cobb County business leaders.

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Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

ELECTION BOARD CRITICS. Two Georgians, Fair Fight’s Lauren Groh-Wargo and Emory University Professor Carol Anderson, have co-authored a commentary for MSNBC asserting that the Georgia State Election Board is previewing an election sabotage plan with its recently imposed new voting rules.

Groh-Wargo and Anderson joined Norman Eisen, a former diplomat and senior White House adviser, in outlining how appointments of new, conservative board members has led to “antidemocratic changes” to Georgia’s elections process. They connect the new rules, including one last week that requires county election boards to conduct a “reasonable inquiry” before certifying votes, to the delay in certification of the 2020 presidential election in Coffee County.