Vice President Kamala Harris’ positive momentum has led two election predictors to put Georgia back on the list of “toss up” states.
The Center for Politics’ Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report removed Georgia from the “leans Republican” category as a response to polling showing Harris performing better against former President Donald Trump than President Joe Biden.
Here is how Crystal Ball summed up the current state of the race in Georgia:
While Biden had basically been stuck in the low-40s in Georgia for at least the last few months of his campaign, Harris's numbers have typically been higher and she has run close to Trump in recent surveys.
For his part, Trump has, at minimum, likely not helped his standing in Georgia by re-airing some of his long-running grievances against two of his favorite intraparty foils: Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), both of whom are broadly popular in the state.
So, with all this, we feel that Georgia is more of a legitimately competitive state than it was prior to Biden's departure — we are moving it back into the Toss-up column from Leans Republican.
Wrote the Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter:
For the first time in a long time, Democrats are united and energized, while Republicans are on their heels. Unforced errors from both Trump and his vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance have shifted the media spotlight from Biden's age to Trump's liabilities. In other words, the presidential contest has moved from one that was Trump's to lose to a much more competitive contest.
Crystal Ball on Wednesday also upgraded Democrats’ chances in Minnesota and New Hampshire from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic.” Harris announced Tuesday that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will join her on the ticket as the vice presidential candidate.
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Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
10-DAY DOWNSWING. Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report staffers aren’t the only close political observers questioning former President Donald Trump’s standing with Georgia voters. Politically Georgia insider and politics columnist Patricia Murphy unpacks how Trump lost his election momentum in the state over a recent 10-day period in a commentary that published Wednesday at AJC.com.
From Murphy’s piece:
“… a series of self-inflicted, quick-fire catastrophes have taken Trump from sure-thing to what-the-heck in a matter of days in Georgia, just as the newly minted Harris campaign is getting off the ground. If you were writing a book on how to lose an election, Trump's last 10 days would be your guide."
And for the second time in a week, The Wall Street Journal editorial board is flagging the former president’s attacks on Gov. Brian Kemp at his event in Georgia as an unforced error that could cost him the election.
More:
Ms. Harris and her new running mate are still far to the left of the American people, if Republicans have the discipline to inform voters. This is still Mr. Trump's election to lose but, as we learned in 2020, he's more than capable of doing it.
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Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
GATHERING STORM. Former President Donald Trump’s broadsides against Gov. Brian Kemp are sure to be a topic this week at The Gathering, Erick Erickson’s annual confab of GOP VIPs.
The two-day Atlanta event starts today and features Erickson in one-on-one conversations with Kemp, former U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler, Attorney General Chris Carr and other Georgia conservatives just as Republicans prepare to go up against the new Democratic ticket of Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
Expect loads of national heavy hitters on the program, too, including U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
If you can’t get to The Gathering yourself, the event will also be livestreamed Friday and Saturday.
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Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
GEORGIA 2024. Former U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler held a lucrative fundraiser in Atlanta for some of her ex-colleagues in the Senate last night.
We’re told she’s on track to raise roughly $1 million for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, including a $500,000 donation from her and her husband Jeff Sprecher.
It continues the pattern of Loeffler spreading large donations across multiple GOP committees to impact races across the country.
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Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC
Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC
WOMEN’S SPORTS. Republican state Sen. Greg Dolezal of Cumming is requesting that Georgia Tech produce a trove of documents related to how the school handles transgender student athletes.
The Republican chair of a newly created Senate special committee designed to “protect women’s sports” fired off a two-page letter Wednesday to Ángel Cabrera, Georgia Tech’s president.
Dolezal asks Georgia Tech to spill all the details on the 2022 NCAA swimming championships that the school hosted in which Lia Thomas, a transgender woman who swam for the University of Pennsylvania, was allowed to compete. Thomas won the 500-yard freestyle.
Credit: John Bazemore/AP
Credit: John Bazemore/AP
In his letter, Dolezal called that an “obvious injustice” to women who competed in the championships.
The uproar following the contest led to an ongoing lawsuit filed in March in federal court in Atlanta against the NCAA, the University System of Georgia and Georgia Tech, our AJC colleague Vanessa McCray reports.
Dolezal told Georgia Tech that the Senate panel wants to know what policies and procedures the school has adopted for transgender athletes, including contracts and details involving locker rooms and showers.
Dolezal wants a response by Aug. 20. The special committee has its first hearing a week later on Aug. 27.
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Credit: Alyssa Pointer/AJC
Credit: Alyssa Pointer/AJC
FURTHER REVIEW. The State Elections Board will take another look at Fulton County’s handling of the 2020 presidential election recount. The board ordered the re-investigation during a meeting Wednesday, reviving an inquiry into allegations of double-counted ballots months before this year’s election.
The board, led by three Republicans lauded by former President Donald Trump at a rally in Atlanta last weekend, voted 3-2 to ask for an investigation by Attorney General Chris Carr. A report on the probe is to be delivered to the board in 30 days.
Our colleague Mark Niesse attended the meeting and has more on what the re-investigation means.
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RURAL RALLIES. Democrats are hoping the personal background of their party’s vice presidential candidate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, can help them win rural voters around the country. Walz grew up on a Nebraska farm and held an “A” rating from the National Rifle Association earlier in his political career.
Democratic organizers aren’t wasting any time in Georgia, where the Indivisible District 10 Democrats are holding “Rural Georgians Go All in for Harris/Walz” rallies in Athens, Danielsville and Watkinsville this weekend.
Organizers say the events are meant to recruit volunteers and “celebrate the ticket.”
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ON SECOND THOUGHT. State School Superintendent Richard Woods on Wednesday approved an Advance Placement African American Studies course for the upcoming school year in Georgia high schools, reversing a controversial decision that roiled educators and politicians alike.
Woods backtracked after Attorney General Chris Carr wrote a letter that concluded the state’s 2022 “divisive concepts” law does not apply to the disputed AP class. The divisive concepts law passed as debate raged over how critical race theory and Black history were being taught in schools.
According to reporting from the AJC’s Ty Tagami, insider Greg Bluestein and Josh Reyes, the AP class will be added to the state course catalog later today. Students who take the course will now be entitled to an enhanced grade for the purpose of Georgia Lottery-funded college scholarships.
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Credit: Fletcher Page/AJC
Credit: Fletcher Page/AJC
UGA STUDENT SUSPENSIONS. Six University of Georgia students dismissed from school following an April 29 pro-Palestinian protest on campus cannot resume their studies in the fall semester, a student judiciary panel ruled last week.
In an open hearing that lasted 13 hours, the three-person panel denied an appeal of the sanctions against the students. They were among demonstrators who erected an encampment not far from university President Jere Morehead’s office and then ignored instructions by UGA police to leave or face arrest.
Following their arrest, the six were sanctioned by the school for recklessly disrupting university activities and for failing to comply with directions issued by the school police.
Our AJC colleague Fletcher Page has more on the hearing and what’s ahead for the students, who can still appeal their suspensions to the university’s vice president of student affairs. Fall semester classes at Georgia begin next Wednesday.
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Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC
Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC
LISTEN UP. Today on “Politically Georgia,” Republican strategist Stephen Lawson talks about the divisions within the GOP and how the schisms are affecting this year’s elections.
Then, State Sen. Nikki Merritt, D-Grayson, joins the show. She held the first news conference on State School Superintendent Richard Woods’ decision not to certify the new African American studies Advanced Placement curriculum and will discuss his change of heart.
Listen live at 10 a.m. on WABE 90.1 or follow “Politically Georgia” on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
If you missed Wednesday’s episode, DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond talked about Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz joining the Democratic presidential ticket as Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate. He also discussed the recent uproar over the AP African American Studies course.
Also, state Rep Saira Draper, D-Atlanta, talked about working with Walz on the Democratic National Committee and her concerns about voting changes being considered by the State Election Board.
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TODAY IN WASHINGTON:
- President Joe Biden calls Hawaii Gov. Josh Green and Maui County Mayor Richard Bissen to commemorate the one-year anniversary of the deadly wildfires. In the afternoon, Biden welcomes the Texas Rangers to the White House to celebrate their 2023 World Series victory.
- Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, campaign in Detroit before heading to Phoenix.
- The House and Senate are in recess until Sept. 9.
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BIDEN SPEAKS. CBS News correspondent Robert Costa has landed the first interview with President Joe Biden since he withdrew from the 2024 presidential race.
The full interview airs on CBS News Sunday Morning at 9 a.m. Sunday. But a snippet was released on social media after Costa and Biden met on Wednesday.
Biden didn’t mention Georgia specifically in the portion released, but he expressed concern that local election officials across the country were changing laws to create more uncertainty and perhaps jeopardize a peaceful transfer of power after the election.
“If Trump loses, I’m not confident at all,” Biden said. “He means what he says. We don’t take him seriously. He means it. All the stuff about if we lose, there’ll be a bloodbath, it’ll have to be a ‘stolen election.’”
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AS ALWAYS, Politically Georgia readers are some of our favorite tipsters. Send your best scoop, gossip and insider info to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.vanbrimmer@ajc.com.
