5 questions about tonight’s crucial presidential debate in Philadelphia

Who has the most to lose?

Harris. The vice president has been riding a wave of favorable polls and media coverage since she replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic Party’s nominee this summer. But recent polling suggests that surge is starting to fade. Her team has tried to lower expectations for this debate, saying the rules favor Trump and put her at a disadvantage. A poor debate performance could swing the momentum back to Trump and raise new doubts about her ability to win such an abbreviated campaign.

Who has the most to gain?

Trump. The former president has had lots of distractions in recent weeks, including a controversy over his trip to Arlington National Cemetery and his waffling position on abortion. A solid debate performance could bring new energy to his campaign and help claw back some of Harris’ gains in battleground states like Georgia.

What must Harris do to win the debate?

Push back, but rise above. Harris has had success in recent weeks avoiding some of Trump’s most pointed attacks. In her sit-down interview with CNN, she famously brushed off a question about Trump questioning her racial identity. That’ll be harder to do when standing on a stage across from Trump. As Harris’ previous debates have shown, she’s not afraid to attack.

What must Trump do to win the debate?

Be consistent, but with an edge. Trump is a famously unpredictable debater, often scoffing at the intense preparation most candidates do. He goes with his gut, which can lead him down some winding paths. Staying focused on what Republicans see as their winning issues, like crime and immigration, would help. But Trump can’t bury his brash persona, which is a key element of his appeal for some voters.

Prediction?

While the last debate in Atlanta wrought political chaos, this one has a chance to settle things down. Then again, in a campaign season as tumultuous as this one, the only sure thing is to bet on the unexpected.

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DEBATE COVERAGE. AJC political reporters Greg Bluestein and Tia Mitchell will be covering the debate from Philadelphia along with colleagues back in Georgia. Stay tuned for live updates on AJC.com and on their X accounts, starting around 4 p.m.

More reading:

Also, check your phones early Wednesday. The “Politically Georgia” crew will have a bonus podcast available around 4 a.m. to recap the presidential debate. Don’t miss it!

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Credit: Georgia Court of Appeals

Credit: Georgia Court of Appeals

CATOOSA CHAOS. A federal judge on Monday rejected a fringe Republican faction’s attempt to oust four candidates from a rural Georgia county’s ballot, blocking that movement’s efforts to purge “traitors” from the GOP.

U.S. District Judge Billy Ray’s ruling dismissed the Catoosa County GOP’s lawsuit to disqualify four candidates for the county Board of Commissioners.

The federal ruling is the second this year that went against the Catoosa GOP. It struck a blow at attempts by ultraconservatives to pass “accountability” rules aimed at giving grassroots activists the final say over who can run on the GOP ticket.

And while it might seem like a parochial battle, the outcome could have big consequences in the ongoing campaign by ultraconservatives who want to rid the party of more moderate or mainstream Republicans.

The group crusading for the new rules, the Georgia Republican Assembly, unsuccessfully pushed last year for policies that could have given the Georgia GOP the final say over who can run as Republicans for governor, legislative seats and other state offices.

The organization vilifies Gov. Brian Kemp and other state incumbents who rejected former President Donald Trump’s demands to overturn his 2020 defeat. It also targeted legislative leaders deemed unworthy of the party’s brand.

But the movement has gained traction in smaller conservative counties where most races for commission seats and other local offices are decided in GOP primaries.

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Credit: Courtesy photo

Credit: Courtesy photo

WAY TOO SOON. An invitation to an upcoming get-out-the-vote event for former President Donald Trump in Forsyth County left more than a few recipients unnerved last week, since it featured a mocked-up image of more than a dozen Republican officials armed and wearing tactical gear.

Worse, the image landed in Forsyth County residents’ social media feeds the same day a deadly school shooting unfolded in neighboring Winder at the hands of a 14-year-old student armed with an AR-15. One tipster who flagged the invitation called it “reflective of the sickness in our society.”

The event and invitation were created by the conservative Restoring American Liberty Forum. In response to our inquiry, the group’s chairman, Byron Stewart, said the social media posts went up the day before the Apalachee High School shooting and were removed when news of the shooting broke.

“Yes, the timing was unfortunate,” Stewart said. “Even though there is no connection between our posted advertisement and the events in Winder, obviously we feel leaving the posts up would have been insensitive to the victims, their families and all who have been so severely affected.” He added that the group is praying for the victims and their families.

Along with Trump, the invitation shows Georgia U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, state Sens. Steve Gooch of Dahlonega, Brandon Beach of Alpharetta, and Shawn Still of Norcross; Forsyth County Sheriff Ron Freeman and Cumming Chief of Police PJ Girvan all dressed as an armed strike force. They are dubbed “The Dependables,” a takeoff of the Sylvester Stallone movie “The Expendables.”

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SHOCKING. An unidentified person shouted “heil Hitler” during the public comment period of the Cobb County Board of Elections on Monday.

The AJC’s Caleb Groves was in the room when it happened. He reported that Tori Silas, the board’s chair, stopped the meeting and told whoever said it to get out. No one owned up to it.

The board then voted 4-0 to adjourn the meeting. Republican Debbie Fisher abstained from the vote.

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Credit: U.S. Department of Justice

Credit: U.S. Department of Justice

JAN. 6 SENTENCING. A 53-year-old man from northwest Georgia is scheduled to be sentenced today in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.

William Frederick Beals II, of Ringgold, pleaded guilty to two misdemeanors for his behavior, which included climbing the scaffolding erected for President Joe Biden’s inauguration, entering the Capitol itself (twice), and posing for a photo astride a U.S. Capitol Police motorcycle.

Beals’ lawyers have asked for three years of probation so he care for his 14-year-old daughter. Prosecutors have asked for eight months of incarceration.

So far, 33 defendants with Georgia ties have been charged with participating in the riot, all but eight of whom have either pleaded guilty or been found guilty at trial. Nationwide, the number is nearly 1,500 people from almost every state, according to the U.S. Department of Justice.

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D’OH! Tim Le, a Republican Gwinnett County Commission candidate, received unwanted attention last week when he invited his neighbors to a Labor Day cookout.

“I’ll be personally grilling hamburgers and hot dogs, and we’ll have beers available for those 18 and older,” the invitation read.

While people can vote and join the military at 18, they must wait until 21 before they can have a (legal) beer.

The mistake prompted a round of jokes about the things candidates will do to win the youth vote. But the Gwinnett County Democratic Party didn’t think it was funny. They sent out a news release on Sunday accusing Le of promoting underage drinking.

“It is both shocking and deeply irresponsible that he would distribute campaign materials implying he has the intention of breaking the law and providing underage Gwinnettians with access to alcoholic beverages,” the party said in the news release.

Le called it an “honest mistake” and said the criticism from Democrats “doesn’t make sense.”

“I guess they’re concerned about the race,” Le said.

Le is challenging incumbent Kirkland Carden for the District 1 seat.

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Credit: Seeger Gray/AJC

Credit: Seeger Gray/AJC

LISTEN UP. Today on “Politically Georgia,” we get a preview of tonight’s presidential debate. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, now a senior adviser for Democrat Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign, joins the show along with Georgia GOP Chair Josh McKoon. You can listen live at 10 a.m. on WABE 90.1 or follow “Politically Georgia” on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

On Monday’s show, the AJC’s Caroline Silva offered some of her public safety expertise following last week’s fatal shooting at Apalachee High School. Plus, Democratic strategist Rick Dent reviewed political ads.

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POLL WATCH. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied at 48% apiece in Georgia according to a new poll from Morning Consult. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a new poll from Quinnipiac University shows Trump at 49% and Harris at 45%. The poll has a margin of error at 3.2 percentage points.

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MONEY WATCH. Georgia tax collections continue to come in ahead of last year, Gov. Brian Kemp’s office reported Monday. August net tax collections totaled more than $2.3 billion, or 2.4% ahead of the same month last year. Year-to-date revenue for the fiscal year that began in July was up 2.5%.

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Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

WARNOCK’S LAMENT. Georgia Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock has been in office a little over three years. And during that time he has delivered three similar speeches on the Senate floor memorializing the victims of a mass shooting in Georgia and begging his colleagues in Congress to pass gun safety legislation.

“We don’t have to live this way,” Warnock said. “We don’t have to accept this as a fact of life.”

His comments seemed to reference Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance, a U.S. senator from Ohio, who last week lamented the shootings as a “fact of life” as he urged for more school security.

Warnock has been making the rounds on national television since the Apalachee High School shooting, and he attended a memorial service in Winder on Friday where he spoke about meeting the family of Christian Angulo, one of two 14-year-olds killed.

“The father shared with me that they had moved from California to a small town in Georgia looking for a quiet and peaceful life,” Warnock said. “Sad irony. Tragic irony.”

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Credit: TNS

Credit: TNS

TODAY IN WASHINGTON:

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ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. We’re 55 days away from the election. Here’s what’s happening today:

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Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC

SHOUTOUTS. Today’s birthdays:

Want a birthday shoutout in the Politically Georgia newsletter? There’s a form for that! Click here to submit the shoutouts. It’s not just birthdays. We’re also interested in new jobs, engagements, birth announcements, etc.

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AS ALWAYS, send your best scoops, gossip and insider info to greg.bluestein@ajc.com, tia.mitchell@ajc.com, patricia.murphy@ajc.com and adam.beam@ajc.com.