Politically Georgia: 2 questions worry presidential campaigns as early voting begins in Georgia

Today’s newsletter highlights include:

New Democratic ads will criticize former President Donald Trump as he visits Georgia today.
Voting early could spare you a barrage of text messages before Election Day.
Former Fulton County special prosecutor Nathan Wade has a new attorney.

It’s decision time in Georgia.

Today marks the start of Georgia’s three week in-person early voting period, the moment when all the campaigning and grassroots organizing is put to the test.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are pushing Georgians to lock in their votes long before Election Day, and polls show nearly two-thirds of likely voters are expected to do just that.

Here are just two of the questions that are keeping operatives from both camps up at night:

Credit: TNS

Credit: TNS

1. Will Black men turn out for Harris?

It’s become one of the prevailing narratives in the race. Polls in Georgia and other battleground states show softer than expected support for Harris among Black voters, particularly Black men, at a time she can least afford it.

Take the latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll. It shows Harris with roughly three-quarters of Black support — soaring numbers, for sure, but not the 90% or so strategists say she needs to win.

Veteran Democratic strategists aren’t as worried about losing those votes to Trump as they are about apathy. They see it as a battle between Harris and the couch.

U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, Georgia’s first Black U.S. senator, said the campaign is leaving nothing to chance.

“We’re not taking anything for granted,” he said. “Here’s what we know: We have to leave it all on the field. Whatever the outcome, it’s going to be very close.”

Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC

2. Will swing voters break toward Trump?

In three straight Georgia elections, a small group of once-reliably Republican voters formed a pillar of the coalition that helped Joe Biden become the first Democrat to carry Georgia since 1992, and then propel Jon Ossoff and Warnock to the U.S. Senate.

With the “Never Trump” movement all but stamped out among core Republican voters, Trump’s campaign knows it can rely on soaring turnout from the party’s rural, white evangelical base.

But the split-ticket voters that helped elect both Gov. Brian Kemp and Warnock in 2022 could again play an outsized role in 2024.

That’s one reason why Kemp’s recent reconciliation with Trump is seen as a pivotal moment in MAGA world: the governor’s support gives mainstream Republicans a tacit OK to back his candidacy.

It’s also why Trump is holding his upcoming rallies in the metro Atlanta suburbs he lost in 2020 rather than deep red outposts where his campaign has often held events.

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GOOD MORNING. The presidential election may be in 21 days, but Georgia voters are headed to the polls today on the first day of in-person early voting. Here are four things to know:

State lawmakers will hold their second public hearing examining the issue of transgender women playing college sports. The hearing comes a week after the University of Georgia Board of Regents voted to ask the NCAA and the National Junior College Athletic Association to ban transgender women from competing in female events.
The Republican chair of the State Election Board said his GOP colleagues have gone too far, the AJC’s Mark Niesse reports.
Vice President Kamala Harris’s doctor says she has a history of “urticaria,” or hives, the AJC’s Helena Oliviero reports. Former President Donald Trump’s campaign hasn’t said much about his health.
Of the nearly 70,000 abortions in Georgia since state restrictions took effect in 2022, about one-half of 1% were done under one of the exceptions outlined in the law, the AJC’s Maya T. Prabhu reports.

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RED CARPET. Vice President Kamala Harris and her allies are greeting former President Donald Trump’s visit to Georgia today with a new push to put the Republican on the defensive.

The campaign launched a minute-long ad this morning on rural radio stations in Georgia and other battleground states that highlights the small-town upbringing of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, her running mate.

“In a small town, you don’t focus on the politics, you focus on taking care of your neighbors and minding your own damn business,” Walz said in the ad. “Now Donald Trump and JD Vance, they don’t think like us. They’re in it for themselves.”

Credit: Courtesy image

The Democratic National Committee is set to unveil billboards slamming one of his anti-abortion statements near where his events in Forsyth and Cobb counties will be held.

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EARLY VOTING PERKS. The best way to stop political campaigns from texting you might be to vote early (which, you might have heard, starts today).

Georgia allows in-person early voting up to three weeks before Election Day. It’s changed the way most people vote in Georgia. And it’s also changed how campaigns behave.

Campaigns often remove people from their data sets once they vote, said Jacob Hawkins, a Republican political consultant who is president of digital for LINK Public Affairs. That means those voters likely won’t receive mail pieces or a barrage of text messages in the final week before Election Day.

”You end up having more efficient spending the last week because you are really only talking to people that are going to vote on Election Day,” he said.

Could that be why Georgia saw record turnout for early voting on the first day it was available in 2020? Americans received 16 billion political text messages that year, according to a report from Robokiller, a company that blocks spam messages.

You can find your early voting polling place here.

Need help researching the candidates and issues on the ballot? Check out the AJC’s voter guide.

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Credit: Natrice Miller/AJC

TESTIFY. When former Fulton County special prosecutor Nathan Wade testifies before a Republican-led committee in Washington today, he’ll have a new attorney by his side.

Roy Barnes, the former Democratic governor, now represents Wade, the AJC’s Tamar Hallerman reports. Barnes, of course, has represented Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis for some time now as allies of former President Donald Trump seek out new information about Willis’ high-profile election interference case.

The change feels strategic. Back when Barnes was only Willis’ lawyer, he asked to sit in on Wade’s deposition so he could object on her behalf. But Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan, the chair of the committee, turned him down.

Now, Barnes will be sitting with Wade along with his other attorney, Andrew Evans.

Wade is expected to be questioned during today’s closed-door hearing about Willis’ use of grant funding, her office’s meetings with the White House and the panel that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. We’re expecting Wade’s attorneys to object to many of the questions.

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Credit: Courtesy photo/AJC

GREAT IDEA. The teenagers at Student Leadership Johns Creek have an ingenious way to get a straight answer from a politician.

They hosted a debate recently between Republican state Rep. Scott Hilton and Democrat Laura Murvartian, who are in an intense battle for the Georgia House District 48 seat, the AJC’s Michelle Baruchman reports. For a few questions, the candidates were only allowed to answer by holding up a piece of paper saying “yes” or “no.”

There was some squirming, but ultimately the candidates answered every question. Some highlights:

Should Georgia adopt a red flag law to temporarily remove firearms from individuals deemed a threat?

Hilton (R): No.
Murvartian (D): Yes.

Do you support the abolition of the death penalty in Georgia?

Hilton (R): Yes.
Murvartian (D): Yes.

Should the government provide financial support for in vitro fertilization treatments as part of public health care coverage?

Hilton (R): No.
Murvartian (D): Yes.

Should Georgia legalize recreational marijuana use?

Hilton (R): No.
Murvartian (D): Yes.

Do you believe displaying the Ten Commandments in public schools violates the separation of church and state?

Hilton (R): Yes.
Murvartian (D): Yes.

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Credit: Greg Bluestein/AJC

LISTEN UP. Today on “Politically Georgia‚” you’ll hear interviews with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Georgia Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock and U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter, R-St. Simons Island. Plus, the hosts will talk about the first day of in-person early voting in Georgia.

Be sure to download the AJC’s Politically Georgia podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Episodes are uploaded by noon each day, just in time to have lunch with us. You can also listen live at 10 a.m. EDT on 90.1 FM WABE. Have a question for the show? Give us a call at 770-810-5297.

On Monday’s show, Georgia AFL-CIO President Yvonne Brooks talked about the importance of unions in the election. Also, Anna Johnson, the Washington bureau chief for the Associated Press, spoke about how the news organization prepares to call races on election night.

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Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC

HELENE RECOVERY. Emergency management officials are still working to help communities affected by Hurricane Helene even after a second powerful storm, Milton, made landfall last week.

In Georgia, the number of counties approved for major disaster declarations is up to 59. Homeowners in these counties can apply to the Federal Emergency Management Agency for individual assistance grants and other programs.

U.S. Rep. Nikema Williams, D-Atlanta, sent letters last week to the U.S. Postal Service and the Biden administration asking them to ensure that people living in states affected by the recent hurricanes still have voting access.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said last week that Helene’s impact on election systems had mostly been mitigated and he was confident that there would be no barriers to voting in the state as a result of the storm. A federal judge last week denied a request from voter groups to extend Georgia’s voter registration deadline because of the storm.

Separately, U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter, R-St. Simons Island, wrote a letter to the White House supporting Gov. Brian Kemp’s request to activate the federal Emergency Prescription Assistance Program. That would help ensure uninsured residents in Georgia can obtain their prescription medicines and replace medical equipment that may have been lost during the storm.

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ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL. Today’s happenings:

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff, husband of Vice President Kamala Harris, will speak at a campaign fundraiser in New York City.
Harris will attend a town hall hosted by radio host Charlamagne tha God in Detroit.
Former President Donald Trump will start the day speaking with the Economic Club of Chicago before traveling to Georgia to tape a Fox News town hall in Forsyth County and hold a campaign rally in Cobb County.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, will speak at campaign events in western Pennsylvania, including a rally in Pittsburgh.

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Credit: Jonathan Reyes for the AJC

KNOW YOUR STUFF. Don’t miss Lautaro Grinspan answering questions about the presidential candidates’ immigration policies. It’s the latest edition in the AJC’s ongoing “Know Your Stuff” series, where our experts respond to reader questions.

Reader Bob George wanted to know why Democrats favor “large number of undocumented immigrants crossing the border” while Republicans don’t. “What is in it for the Democrats and their supporters for allowing millions per year to cross our border?” he asked.

“I am going to push back on this,” Grinspan wrote. “Has the Democratic Party been traditionally more friendly to immigrant rights? Yes. But an interesting facet of this political moment in 2024 is that Democrats have joined Republicans in calling for tighter restrictions at the U.S.-Mexico border to clamp down on illegal immigration. That’s a shift that has rankled immigrant rights advocates. And despite the GOP ticket doubling down on extreme anti-immigrant rhetoric (see the Haitian pet-eating conspiracy), it was Republican opposition that tanked the bipartisan border bill earlier this year.”

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