We found out Tuesday how quickly it could all go wrong for former President Donald Trump. Around lunchtime he posted a note to his Truth Social media platform, saying he’d received a letter telling him he is a target of special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into his conduct during and after the 2020 elections, including the Capitol attack on Jan. 6.
He called Smith “deranged” and leveled an ALL CAPS response, calling the investigation “A WITCH HUNT,” “ELECTION INTERFERENCE,” and “PROSECUTORIAL MISCONDUCT.”
“SUCH A THING HAS NEVER HAPPENED IN OUR COUNTRY BEFORE…AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CAMPAIGN???”
This means Trump could soon be under indictment in three, and possibly four, separate criminal cases if Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis decides to press charges for election interference or criminal conspiracy, as she’s widely expected to do.
Let’s take a step back and consider what this means for the 2024 presidential elections. Beyond the fact that Trump may need to physically be in multiple jurisdictions for multiple defenses during the campaign, “indicted four times” is not the profile of a man who wins his next election. It’s not even the profile of a man who could apply for a job as a camp counselor.
Republican strategists know that. They believe any of the GOP’s multiple other candidates could beat Joe Biden next November. And they worry that Trump, who is far and away the favorite among the GOP base, is the only one who would lose.
Even if conservatives don’t care that Trump may have broken the law, and in fact many of them, he has also shown he doesn’t have the discipline not to talk about the cases against him at every campaign stop.
While his message in 2016 was about bringing jobs back to the United States and “making America great again,” his only message now is, “I didn’t do it.” When Gov. Brian Kemp talks about needing a candidate who looks forward and not back, this is what he’s talking about.
But poll after poll shows the indictments only seem to be making him stronger in GOP primary contests, which he leads by 34, 35, and up to 39 points over his closest competitors. But it’s all making him weaker for the general election. Even if they don’t want it, Republicans need a plan B.
The bad news is that the leading alternative, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has been more awkward than a first date when he’s interacted with regular people on the campaign trail. If you don’t believe me, Google “Ron DeSantis + laughing” and judge for yourself.
The good news is that Republicans have plenty of other options for getting off the Trump train, if they’ll take them.
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is one who is often overlooked, but highly qualified. He’s been a member of Congress, chief executive in Arkansas and former head of the Drug Enforcement Agency under George W. Bush. For every Republican looking for someone to do more about fentanyl trafficking, he could be your guy.
If understated and overqualified isn’t your cup of tea, how about Vivek Ramaswamy? The Harvard and Yale-educated tech executive has been lighting up GOP crowds lately with his pile of fresh ideas for what a president could do. Some are genuinely interesting, such as allowing the president not to spend all of the money appropriated by Congress. Others are confusing — raising the voting age to 25, for example, while still others are ridiculous, like allowing the president to rule by executive fiat. On the plus side, unlike Donald Trump, Ramaswamy is not under indictment.
Other candidates have plenty of plusses, too — U.S. Sen. Tim Scott has an incredible personal story, a moral compass and loads of Congressional experience. Nikki Haley has been the governor of South Carolina, a state lawmaker and a diplomat at the United Nations. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is not unlike Trump in that he “tells it like it is” when he’s hammering the former president for his many legal entanglements. And, unlike Trump, Christie has also never been indicted.
The list goes on. But all of this is to say Republicans have plenty of options and it’s clear that they need to start thinking about them. But based on the polling, that’s not happening.
It has to be said that Democrats could use a Plan B, too. It feels like President Joe Biden, now on the old side of 80, is just a few more slip-and-falls away from making too many voters worry he’s no longer up for the job. And Vice President Kamala Harris hasn’t exactly lit the country’s imagination on fire from her office.
The single refrain I hear from voters over and over as I drive around Georgia, whether they are elected officials themselves or pumping gas or serving at lunch counters, is the disbelief that the 2024 presidential election is stacking up to be a rematch between Biden and Trump.
But the reality is that this may not be the case. Voters may not even have them as choices.
So start vetting. Start thinking. Start watching the debates and interviews and stump speeches. You may need a Plan B sooner than you think.
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