Georgia voters have a front-row seat again this year in the race for president. But when it comes to determining which party controls the U.S. House in 2025, the Peach State isn’t on the radar.
While polls consistently show that Americans have a dismal view of Congress, incumbent lawmakers often win reelection at rates of over 90%.
All 13 Georgia lawmakers running for reelection are strong favorites, along with Republican Brian Jack, who is expected to win the seat of retiring U.S. Rep. Drew Ferguson.
And that’s the broader election story across the South as a whole — mainly because of partisan redistricting by GOP-led state legislatures.
Other than one U.S. House seat in Virginia and another in North Carolina, there is no expected election drama in any state in the Deep South.
Georgia is a perfect example. When state Republicans redrew congressional district lines last year, they didn’t create any competitive ”swing” districts. All 14 districts in Georgia — currently held by nine Republicans and five Democrats — are considered ”safe.”
That presents an odd election-year dichotomy for state voters. While the race for president certainly could depend on what happens in Georgia — especially in growing areas around Atlanta — those same voters will play no role in the fight to control Congress.
In North Carolina, Republicans already know that they will pick up at least three seats in the U.S. House in this election. Why? Because North Carolina’s Republican Legislature redrew the congressional district lines in such a dramatic way that three Democrats didn’t run for reelection — knowing they couldn’t win under the new maps in 2024.
“Republicans have rigged the system to favor themselves,” said U.S. Rep. Wiley Nickel, a Democrat from the Raleigh suburb of Garner who gave up his House seat after one term.
North Carolina’s delegation currently is split 7-7. But Republicans should at least have a 10-4 edge next year — all because of the new maps.
Democrats are favored to win back at least two Southern House seats, one each in Alabama and Louisiana; that’s because the courts tossed out partisan GOP gerrymanders that discriminated against Black voters.
So where is the fight for the U.S. House taking place? Mainly in swing seats in Arizona, California, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, New York and Pennsylvania.
The numbers are tight. Democrats won a four-seat House majority in 2020. Republicans won an identical four-seat majority in 2022. A repeat either way would not be a surprise.
In the race for president, Georgia is one of the key states. But for the U.S. House, Georgia — and much of the South — isn’t even on the map.
Jamie Dupree has covered national politics and Congress from Washington since the Reagan administration. His column appears weekly in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. For more, check out his Capitol Hill newsletter at jamiedupree.substack.com.
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