The new maps that Gov. Brian Kemp signed into law last week create a new majority-Black district in west metro Atlanta as ordered by U.S. District Judge Steve Jones — but at the expense of a majority-minority seat based in Gwinnett County’s that’s held by Democratic U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath.

And while Democrats express confidence that Jones will toss out the congressional maps after a hearing next week, they are less optimistic about what could happen next, when the decision is reviewed by a conservative-leaning federal appeals court.

“I got into this to deliver some real benefits to voters,” Richardson said on “Politically Georgia” on WABE. “But it’s hard for me to answer questions on maps that I don’t think are going to hold. I don’t think they pass the sniff test.”

Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC

Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC

The political uncertainty runs deep.

If the current maps are kept intact by the courts, McBath and the three other Democratic incumbents in metro Atlanta would likely try to divvy up the four newly drawn liberal-leaning districts even as they face potential primary challengers.

There could be even less clarity about state legislative races, since state law requires legislators to live in their districts a year before an election. That means it’s already too late for any candidates to move to another district to compete.

Under the new boundaries, Democrats in the Georgia House could flip a handful of seats next year, but at a steep price. Three pairs of Democratic incumbents were drawn together, along with only one set of GOP incumbents.

But it’s far from certain those maps will hold sway. Jones could appoint a mapmaking expert to redraw the lines, potentially creating a host of competitive congressional and legislative races. And there’s a chance the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals could reinstate an earlier version of the maps.

“We are locked in limbo, and the people who are most impacted right now are the voters of Georgia,” said Erick Allen, a former state legislator who chairs the Cobb Democratic Party.

“As for candidates, everyone is in a holding pattern,” Allen said. “They don’t know where to campaign, who to call, who to add to their Christmas lists.”

The response of Republican leaders? Revising the maps wasn’t their idea.

“We did not want to redraw these districts,” said state Sen. Bo Hatchett, R-Cornelia. “We are doing this because we were sued by Democratically affiliated groups.”

‘Not going anywhere’

The uncertainty has only ratcheted up the political tension as colleagues become rivals in an instant.

McBath is no stranger to that phenomenon. In 2021, the GOP-led Legislature transformed her suburban Atlanta district into a Republican stronghold. She instead defeated a Democratic incumbent in a neighboring district to stay in office.

She and her aides are tightlipped on her specific plans — but clear that she will fight to keep a seat in Congress next year no matter how the maps shake out.

“Regardless of what the GOP throws at me, I won’t quit. That’s why I’m set on returning to Congress in 2024,” McBath said. “However, the new maps drawn by Republicans are putting my reelection campaign in serious jeopardy.”

One of her advisers, Jake Orvis, offered this counsel for up-and-coming Democrats eager to seek a U.S. House seat: “The best thing to do right now is to lay low, figure out your strategy, see where these maps land, and if there’s an open seat without an incumbent, go jump on it.”

That can be hard advice to stomach. Richardson, a prominent Black leader in Cobb, might have been a solid contender for a new left-leaning U.S. House seat. She said, however, that she won’t challenge a Democratic incumbent if the newly drawn maps stay intact.

“It is never my intent to displace a sitting incumbent in the Democratic Party. That is just not something I jumped into this race for,” Richardson said. “As these new lines get drawn, we’ll evaluate at that point where the need is, what I can deliver — and whether my message will resonate with those communities.”

Credit: Steve Schaefer/AJC

Credit: Steve Schaefer/AJC

Another potential U.S. House candidate is Marcus Flowers, the northwest Georgia Democrat who raised a staggering $16.6 million in his unsuccessful bid last year to topple Republican U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Rome. He, too, is in wait-and-see mode about his 2024 prospects.

“I haven’t ruled anything out at this point. Unfortunately, due to Republican gerrymandering there’s really not a decision to be made. I can’t imagine that the judge would accept the proposed maps as they are exactly the opposite of his order.”

Further down the ticket, many imperiled Democrats are at once hoping the new maps are tossed out while still looking over their shoulder.

State Rep. Sam Park, one of his party’s legislative leaders, was drawn together with a fellow Gwinnett Democrat. He said Republicans have created “confusion and uncertainty” for voters. But he is certain about something.

“I’m not going anywhere,” Park said. “With or without a title, I’m committed to doing all I can to build a better Georgia.”